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Saturday 27 August 2011

Weekend football information

As I'm currently out of the country my analysis will be short at sweet this week. I won't be betting myself however the following might be of use.

In the premiership Wolves travel to Aston Villa for the early kick off. An interesting fact is that these teams have played the same teams this season already! Wolves beating Fulham and Blackburn, Villa beating Blackburn and drawing with Fulham. The fixture between Villa and Wolves has recently gone with the away team, Wolves winning at Villa in March this year and Villa winning at Wolves late in 2010! I would be tempted by the 14/5 on offer on Wolves to pick this up again and keep their run going.

Last season Wigan only won 5 games at home and play a QPR side that now includes one J Barton signed from Newcastle. I'm not sure whether he will play on Saturday but its an interesting move by QPR! QPR won at Everton last week after being dismantled in their first home game against Bolton. I think Wigan will striggle to win home games again this season so would be looking at QPR at 2/1 or under 2.5 goals at 7/10.

I hope these little tip bits are of help for the weekend, enjoy the football and any other betting opportunities that come up this week!

Monday 22 August 2011

Man United to beat Spurs?

Having had a look at the stats for the past 10 seasons we see that Spurs have only once picked up a point at Old Trafford the home of Man United. To make matters worse for Spurs they have only scored on 3 occasions, once scoring twice but conceding 5!

They hav only crossed swords in this time in August once, in 2007 when Manchester won 1-0.

It is often the case that pundits say the best time to play Manchester United is at the start of a season! So looking at the last 10 years of home games played at Old Trafford we can see that infact Manchester United have never lost in August in the 10 seasons I have looked at! Furthermore they have only drawn on 3 occasions. Spurs for their part have not loast away since 2008 when they were beaten by Middlesborough.

In the 15 games Manchester United have played at home they have only conceded 6 goals in 5 of the games. This shows that actually Manchester United are pretty ruthless at home in August.

Both sides have picked up maximum points in their August games when playing as they are tonight since 2008 so something has to give tonight.

I understand that Modric is not in the right frame of mind to play for Spurs tonight - but I'm sure he will pick up his £40K wages anyway this week. Spurs were very impressive last week against Hearts in the Europa Cup - really it shows the class between the Scottish Premier and the English Premier, nevertheless Spurs did play well again without Modric.

Manchester United started with a 2-1 win s I suggested they might away at WBA, however they have injury doubts around Vidic, who is almost certainly out and Ferdinand who is also a serious doubt. This means that the back line for Man Utd is severely dented with Rafeal also out and the new goalie David de Gea still settling in. The average of the Man Utd back line could be 20 years. Given Spurs haven't won at Old Trafford since 1989 it means that almost all of the backline have never seen Spurs win at Old Trafford in their lifetime!

As ever Man Utd will be strong going forward and will no doubt score. I do give Spurs a glimmer of hope although all the stats suggest otherwise.

It could be a day for Spurs to get a draw as I expect Man U to concede, the question will be who plays in goal for Spurs and how interested Rooney is!

I'm going to suggest a 1-1 draw or 2-2 draw as the draw is 11/4 where as 13/2 for 1-1 and 16/1 for 2-2 is much more interesting pricewise!

I'm going to bet 1/2 my stake on these outcomes as this is more a punt that a golden opportunity as chances are Man U will win and stretch their good home form.


Friday 19 August 2011

Strange things are a happening in the football stats!

Its an amazing start to the season once again, i'm not having much luck with my yankees and the stats show this is due to the unusual winning patterns that are showing up, so many home sides not winning.
Last weekend on Manchester City won at home. In the championship only 13 home wins have been registered in the 3 rounds of games! That is astonishing!

I'm off on holiday for 2 weeks so don;t have much time for analysis this week.

I'm going to attempt another yankee, failure again will result in me reconsidering my strategy!

I'm picking home teams that have started well and should be able to kick on in the coming weeks.

Preston NE V Exeter - Preston lost on the opening day but have since bagged some much needed points, as one of the favorites for promotion this is the sort of game they should be winning.

Gillingham V Plymouth - Plymouth have not had a great start and seem to be ok for 45 minutes before fading, Gillingham look like having a good season, Plymouth need money, players and some luck in the coming weeks! Gillingham home win.

Rotherham V Barnet - Rotherham have won 3 out of 3 so far and play a Barnet team who have won lost and drawn in their opening fixtures. They have already won away but I don't see that being repeated. Rotherham home win.

Finally my tip for promotion, Southend. Southend are at home to Burton, Burton have drawn all of their games so far but I feel Southend should get the better of them and take the bacon.

I'm going with my usual 10pts which will net $50.

Thursday 18 August 2011

Europa League First Round

Tonight sees the start of the Europa League for most sides. However Stoke and Fulham have been at this for a while now already!

I see that Modric is missing from the Spurs team and subs bench who face Hearts tonight, suggesting that he is on his way to Chelsea and therefore not cup tied!

I would expect Defoe to have a good game as he tries to improve on last season and hold down a regular place in the starting line up at Spurs.

As such I take Defoe to score first at 5/1 and also Defoe to score at any time at 6/4. The score at any time covers the fact of him not scoring first and therefore gives a slight profit, should Defoe score first as I expect then I will win on both counts.

Friday 12 August 2011

The Start Of The Premiership 2011/2012

Tomorrow finally sees the start of the premiership season. Its been a long wait and for fans of Tottenham (myself included) and Everton the wait goes on due to the horrific scenes seen in Tottenham last weekend.

I have been thinking of where to look for my bet this week and have been looking at the markets for WBA V Manchester United. Man U are very short at 4/9 so I have been looking elsewhere for some value. I thought Man U were very impressive going forward last weekend in the Community Shield however I don't think they look so good at the back. Their new keeper will need some time to get used to the Premiership and looks like a possible weak link. As such I think WBA will score but Man U will still win the game, so the Goals scored market or both teams to score market may hold the value i'm looking for. The prices are 8/11 more than 2.5 goals and 3/4 both teams to score, as this is so close in terms of price I think that the 8/11 on 2.5 goals is the place to go for safety should Man U not concede. If you think WBA will score but Man U will win then that must mean more than 2.5 goals so take your pick here!

Wigan open up against Norwich, this time last year Wigan lost 0-4 to Blackpool, I don't see anything to suggest Wigan have strengthened this summer so will take a punt on Norwich to repeat the angony seen at Wigan last year. Norwich are a tasty 11/4 to turn over Wigan.

In League 2 Bristol Rovers are at home to another of my teams Torquay United. Rovers played very well and beat Wimbledon last weekend whereas Torquay only managed a 2-2 draw with Burton after being 2 goals down. Paul Buckle the Rovers manager, will look to get one over his old club and I expect Bristol to win this at 5/6.

Finally Swindon travel to local rivals Cheltenham, I expect that Cheltenham will struggle this season and Swindon to go well, Swindon winning last week 3-0 at home and Cheltenham losing away at Gillingham. Swindon should collect 3 more points on Saturday and at 23/20 offer good value.

Once again I will be watching some games to look for some in play markets, if anyone has any betting suggestions please add a comment.

My Yankee is priced as such
8/11
11/4
5/6
23/20

Returns will be £105

Good luck for the weekend!

Thursday 11 August 2011

Carling Cup Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool

Tonight Blackpool will travel to Sheffield to play Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough. This game stands out as Blackpool are available at 8/5 with Bluesq. Blackpool will be without 3 internationals that were involved in internal squads this week and their goalkeeper is out with an injury. This might suggest that now is a good time to play Blackpool or even back against them (Sheffield available at 13/8), however Sheffield Wednesdays aim this season is promotion and with a game against Bournemouth at the weekend it is likely that Gary Megson (Wednesday Manager) could make 11 changes from the weekend!

Blackpool played very well in the Championship opener, fielding 8 players that played in the Premiership so they still have strength in the side. I would expect Holloways men to dominate this game and win it comfortably.

My usual 10pt bet will be going on Blackpool tonight.

A quick note for the weekend, Spurs V Everton has fallen victim to the dreadful scenes seen this week, hopefully this will be rearranged shortly!

Oh and anyone wanting to play in a simple Premiership score prediction game please check this out. Its non profit, free and just a bit of family fun! Many of the players in the this game are under 12's! Come along and have some fun.
Click Here For Prediction Game

Sunday 7 August 2011

Never right off Manchester United and use the bet in play options

Although yesterday was a bit of a disappointment as only Plymouth managed a draw for the relegated League 1 teams it was great to get the football season off and running.

First up yesterday were Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers, i had this down as a draw in my yankee however at 1-0 to Rovers I did back them at 4-5 to win the game as they were all over Wimbledon at the time. Sure enough they scored again before Wimbledon got back in it with Rovers scoring a penalty in the last 10 minutes to win the game 3-2. So although the yankee died a death I was able to collect as I was able to watch the game live and assess the game at the first goal.

I was pleased with Rovers and they look a real danger for the season ahead so fully justifying my bet on them to be champions.

Today I was able to watch the Community shield and when Lescott scored for Manchester City I still felt Manchester United were the better team. Seeing Manchester United at 4-1 was too good to miss so I bet on United to win. At 2-0 the price was a staggering 16-1, I didn't take this unfortunately but a similar thing happened to United last season against Blackpool when Rooney had his issues with the cameraman. At 2-2 Bet365 were still offering 2-1 on United, again too big a price I thought so I took that price as well.

With Nani scoring with the last kick of a great game I was a very happy man! I believe that to bet in play you need to really be watching the game so you can assess the game from your own point of view, that way if you see a price you feel is too big you can lump on and reap the rewards.

I believe Man United were 2-0 twice last season and on both occasions didn't lose the game, I'm sure Fergie had a few words at half time to gee up his troops and it showed in the second half.

Finally, the stats show the team winning the Shield generally go on to win the League!

Saturday 6 August 2011

Football League Full Kick Off Today 2011/2012

I must confess that I was a little disappointed in the Hull City display last night. They had plenty of chances but never really looked like they would score. Its clear that the wows of 23 goals in 21 home games last season could again scupper any promotion bid. As for Blackpool I was pleased to see Ollie (Holloway) get his troops off to a good start, here is a manager full of passion and belief and plays football the right way. I feel they are a couple of players short of a promotion team in my view but with the skills of the management they could overcome that difficulty.

Today I will be placing my bet based on statistics, a few weeks ago I wrote a blog showing the trend for draws in league 2 for relegated teams. So today I will be following that trend and placing a Yankee on all 4 games ending in a draw.

For anyone not sure what a Yankee is I shall give a quick explanation.
A Yankee is made up of 11 bets, so a £1 yankee will cost you £11.

It involves betting on the different combination of games to form doubles, trebles and a 4 timer. The theory is that should one game go south you can still collect on the other 3 games should they deliver.

So
Double bets = 6 bets
Treble bets = 4 bets
4 Timer = 1

In the case of my games if all 4 games win I will collect £339
If I felt that the 4 games would win and I didn't need to split my money on multiple bets i could place £11 on the win. In this case it will return £1363.

As you can see there is a massive difference in the returns, however if I predict 1 game wrong I can still get a smaller return from my Yankee bet but the single £11 bet is dead in the water.

I will also have a bet on Reading to start off with a win at home

AFC Wimbledon V Bristol Rovers (23/10)
Swindon V Crewe (12/5)
Macclesfield Town V Dagenham and Redbridge (9/4 Bluesq)
Shrewsbury V Plymouth Argyle (12/5)

All games to Draw

Reading To Beat Millwall (5/6 Bluesq)

Friday 5 August 2011

Today is the start of the new English Champioship 2011-2012

Tonight sees the start of the English Championship where Hull City will face relegated Blackpool. Last season Blackpool started well in the Premiership and for a long time it looked like they might stay up. However a dreadful away record finally took its toll and they were relegated after 1 season back to the Championship. Hull City find themselves in the Championship for a second season after they flirted with the Premiership, so both these clubs have parachute payments from the Premier League however only Hull have been spending it.

Blackpool have not spent much money and have lost the likes of DJ Campbell and Charlie Adam, these losses are key to Blackpool and will probably result in Blackpool finishing mid table this term.

Reports are rife about Blackpool players not being motivated, this can only be a bad thing for the club and I expect this to be clearly seen tonight. Holloway will want a good performance but I cannot see it happening.

Hull have a great record over Blackpool at home and I can only see 1 result, that being a home win for Hull City. Hull can be backed at 6/5 with Bluesq and Bet365.

So I'm going 10pts on the home win.

Thursday 4 August 2011

Stoke Vs Hajduk Split The Return

Tonight sees the second leg of the Europa Qualifiers, with Stoke traveling to Hajduk Split. Stoke won the first leg by a single goal scored in the 3rd minute and I collected a modest win. I expect Tony Pulis to send out a defensive setup tonight in order to get through to the next round as that is worth a lot of money to Stoke.

I have checked last seasons away form and Stoke only managed 1 0-0 all season, they didn't have any at home. Fulham have made a habit of drawing 0-0 away from home in the cup this season so I have a sneaky feeling that we may be due a 0-0 in Split. As I am up 10pts at the moment (10 being my standard bet) I'm going to split the bet with 5pts on 0-0 at 7/1 with bluesq - its also 0-0 with Bet365 but only 4/1 on Betfair which is interesting in its own way! The other 5pts will go on Stoke to win at 11/8, my theory here is that should Split push on to look for the goal they need they are open to a counter attack and a late winner for Stoke which would effectively end the tie, indeed any goal at any time for Stoke should end the contest. I don't normally go for correct score betting but feel 7/1 is a reasonable price.