It would seem now that the Swiss have come from behind we should look at the world that is in play betting. The most amazing fact at this world cup so far is this.
In 5 games the team scoring first have gone on to lose the game. In the Swiss game the minute Ecuador scored Switzerland were 9/2 to win the game having started the game at 7/5. I took this price and am glad I did however at half time Ray Winston (Bet365) was offering me 11/2 on the Swiss.
Brazil, Holland, Costa Rica, Ivory Coast and Switzerland have all conceded first but won their game.
Therefore in 71% of games where both teams have scored the team conceding first has won, this could be a good indicator for in play betting followers.
2 games have finished to nil so far so are not included in these stats.
Of the 9 games 8 have finished with over 2.5 goals, this is another interesting fact and shows that bettering over 2.5 goals is a useful bet in this tournament so far. I think the second round of games will be the same but the 3rd round of games could be a bit more cagey.
Games won by the team conceding first when both teams score in the game.
The England Group! This Group is made up of England, Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica. We have heard so much about Pirlo from Italy, Suarez from Uruguay and Rooney from England! So whats going to happen here then? Last time around Uruguay ended up in the Semi Finals thanks to Suarez and his hands on that occasion! England disappeared without trace against Germany and Italy went home early having been dumped in the Group stages and finishing bottom!
Since then things have changed for the Azzuri they finished runners up to Spain 2 years ago in the Euro Championships, Roy has got hold of the English side and they appear fairly competitive in this company and Uruguay finsihed 5th in their World Cup qualification and had to beat Jordan to get the the finals at all!
So what of Costa Rica you ask........
Well Costa Rica are ranked 28th in the world at the moment and finsihed 2nd behind USA in their qualification group. The finished above Honduras and Mexico so are by no means also rans here. However I don't think they will affect how this group pans out in all honesty but might get a sneaky draw at some point.
We know Italy have an aging side, we know Suarez has just had a knee operation, so it doesn't matter if he plays or not, he won't be running around like he did in the premiership this past season, he will not be 100% which can only help Englands chances.
England have youth on their side and if Sterling is given the chance to bomb up and down for 70 minutes we might just see some fireworks! If England keep players fit and healthy I can see them getting to the Quarter Finals at least..................
Englands opening fixture is in the Rain Forest on a pitch that looks like this! So I think the passing game is out!
My view of the Group might surprise a few, this is how I see it!
Its been somewhat of a long time since my last post! But its time to get back into the swing of things.
I thought I would just have a quick look at some interesting stats around the world cup.
Brazil are currently best priced 3/1 favs with most bookmakers and with the World Cup being in Brazil no surprise there!
However you have to go back to 1998 to find a World Cup where the hosts won, that time it was France although they did not go into the tournament as favourites or even start the final as favourites against Brazil so home advantage has its benefits. Home advantage may not work too well for Brazil either as there is unrest in side the country concerning the amount of money that has been spent on the World Cup, as such it will be interesting to see how the fans react as the tournament progresses.
There is clearly a lot of talk about whether the European teams can make an impact in Brazil due to the heat, it's clearly going to be hot in some of the venues but not so hot in others. For example England will play Italy in the heat an humidity of the Amazonian city of Manaus where the temperature can get up to 30 Degrees C. However in Porte Alegre the temperature will be around 19C. France and the Netherlands will be playing here.
As such I fancy France to beat Hondurus (15 June) here and the Netherlands to beat Australia (18 June) as heat will be less of a factor.
England will play Uruguay in the Arena De Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo where the temperature should be a much more reasonable 20C. This shouldn't be too much of a problem for England and I fancy England to win this one. The big danger would have Suarez but given he has had a minor knee operation he is unlikely to be the force he has been in the Premiership this season. We will have to see how he performs against Costa Rica - assuming he even starts.
I like the look of Belgium and expect them to win their group, however should they get out of their group they will face Germany or Portugal! And should they win that the likelihood is that they would then face Argentina, given this potential route through the competition I can't consider them as winners, however the best price of 22/1 is reasonable but unrealistic to come in! I do however expect them to play Argentina but can't see them getting any further.
For me, I like the look of Argentina, they haven't won the World Cup since 1986 and Messi has never really performed on the World Cup stage to a level he would want. Given the conditions and location of this years tournament I think they will be hard to beat and fully expect them to get to the final, where in all probability they will face Brazil. Backing up Messi we have Aguaro and Higuain up front, Mascherano and Champions League Winner Angel Di Maria in midfield and Zabaleta and Demichelis Premier league winners with Man City at the back. Most of the Argentine side are based in Europe and most of the squad play for top European sides as such they are full of experience and should be considered a major threat.
4/1 is available with a lot of bookmakers however I took 9/2 earlier on this month.
History of the opening fixture.
2010 (South Africa)- South Africa 1 - 1 Mexico
2006 (Germany) - Germany 4 - 2 Cost Rica
2002 (South Korea) - France 0 - 1 Senegal
1998 (France) - Brazil 2 - 1 Scotland
1994 (USA) - Germany 1 - 0 Bolivia
1990 (Italy) - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon
The opening fixture this time around is Brazil V Croatia, the bookies give Croatia no chance at 10/1. With Brazil at 3/10 there isn't much value. We haven't seen over 2.5 goals in the opening game that often, however I thing Brazil will be keen to come out of the traps flying. If they score early I can see them scoring at least 3. Over 2.5 goals is available at Evens.
If you fancy Brazil to win rather than the 3/10 for winning the game you can get 3/4 on Brazil winning at half time and then at full time. This gives slightly better value.
If you need a new account for the world cup click here
Having had a look at the stats for the past 10 seasons we see that Spurs have only once picked up a point at Old Trafford the home of Man United. To make matters worse for Spurs they have only scored on 3 occasions, once scoring twice but conceding 5!
They hav only crossed swords in this time in August once, in 2007 when Manchester won 1-0.
It is often the case that pundits say the best time to play Manchester United is at the start of a season! So looking at the last 10 years of home games played at Old Trafford we can see that infact Manchester United have never lost in August in the 10 seasons I have looked at! Furthermore they have only drawn on 3 occasions. Spurs for their part have not loast away since 2008 when they were beaten by Middlesborough.
In the 15 games Manchester United have played at home they have only conceded 6 goals in 5 of the games. This shows that actually Manchester United are pretty ruthless at home in August.
Both sides have picked up maximum points in their August games when playing as they are tonight since 2008 so something has to give tonight.
I understand that Modric is not in the right frame of mind to play for Spurs tonight - but I'm sure he will pick up his £40K wages anyway this week. Spurs were very impressive last week against Hearts in the Europa Cup - really it shows the class between the Scottish Premier and the English Premier, nevertheless Spurs did play well again without Modric.
Manchester United started with a 2-1 win s I suggested they might away at WBA, however they have injury doubts around Vidic, who is almost certainly out and Ferdinand who is also a serious doubt. This means that the back line for Man Utd is severely dented with Rafeal also out and the new goalie David de Gea still settling in. The average of the Man Utd back line could be 20 years. Given Spurs haven't won at Old Trafford since 1989 it means that almost all of the backline have never seen Spurs win at Old Trafford in their lifetime!
As ever Man Utd will be strong going forward and will no doubt score. I do give Spurs a glimmer of hope although all the stats suggest otherwise.
It could be a day for Spurs to get a draw as I expect Man U to concede, the question will be who plays in goal for Spurs and how interested Rooney is!
I'm going to suggest a 1-1 draw or 2-2 draw as the draw is 11/4 where as 13/2 for 1-1 and 16/1 for 2-2 is much more interesting pricewise!
I'm going to bet 1/2 my stake on these outcomes as this is more a punt that a golden opportunity as chances are Man U will win and stretch their good home form.
