Showing posts with label league 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label league 2. Show all posts
Sunday, 9 October 2011
League 2 Review October 2011
We have now entered October so its a good time to review the season so far and look for possible league winners. Today I will be looking at League 2 where we have seen the demise of Plymouth Argyle, a heavy defeat for Crawley and the emergence of Morecambe.
At present the teams in League 2 have played 12 games, last season after 14 games Chesterfield were top and went on to win the League. Currently Southend head the field with 25 points, should they win their next 2 games they will be ahead of where Chesterfield were last season.
Its interesting to see pre season favourites Crawley Town in second place, they have had a mixed start with some good wins but also a heavy defeat at early pace setters Morecambe. Crawley have conceded 17 goals so far, which is in my view slightly high for a team priced at 11/8 to win the league! Southend have only conceded 12 goals thus far showing they are nice and tight at the back!
When looking at the past 10 seasons we can see that the winner has come from the top 6 by this stage of the season, so this means that the winner should come from one of the following teams.
Southend, Crawley, AFC Wimbledon, Shrewsbury, Oxford and Morecambe. Shrewsbury are second favourites at the moment at 7/1 with Southend at 9/1 and Oxford 10/1. AFC Wimbledon and Morecambe are seen as the outsiders of the group at 18/1 and 22/1 respectively.
At the start of the season I was looking at Southend as my team for the season and nothing has changed to affect this thought. Crawley at 11/8 are way too short and have not shown the dominance that you would expect from a team as short as that price at this stage. I have no doubts that Crawley will be promoted but not necessarily as champions.
Paul Sturrock at Southend has been here before with Plymouth, so he has the pedigree and the experience to complete the double with Southend.
I will take the 9/1 this week as I look to set up some winning bets for the end of the season.
Friday, 2 September 2011
Weekly Review
It maybe an International weekend and I may still be on holiday but the lower leagues play on all the same so its only right that I complete a review of some of the games.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.
As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.
With games of this type I like to go with the home side.
Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.
Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.
Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.
Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.
In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.
This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.
This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?
In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.
Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.
At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.
Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.
In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.
In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!
In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.
As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.
With games of this type I like to go with the home side.
Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.
Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.
Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.
Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.
In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.
This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.
This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?
In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.
Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.
At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.
Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.
In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.
In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!
In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.
Friday, 12 August 2011
The Start Of The Premiership 2011/2012
Tomorrow finally sees the start of the premiership season. Its been a long wait and for fans of Tottenham (myself included) and Everton the wait goes on due to the horrific scenes seen in Tottenham last weekend.
I have been thinking of where to look for my bet this week and have been looking at the markets for WBA V Manchester United. Man U are very short at 4/9 so I have been looking elsewhere for some value. I thought Man U were very impressive going forward last weekend in the Community Shield however I don't think they look so good at the back. Their new keeper will need some time to get used to the Premiership and looks like a possible weak link. As such I think WBA will score but Man U will still win the game, so the Goals scored market or both teams to score market may hold the value i'm looking for. The prices are 8/11 more than 2.5 goals and 3/4 both teams to score, as this is so close in terms of price I think that the 8/11 on 2.5 goals is the place to go for safety should Man U not concede. If you think WBA will score but Man U will win then that must mean more than 2.5 goals so take your pick here!
Wigan open up against Norwich, this time last year Wigan lost 0-4 to Blackpool, I don't see anything to suggest Wigan have strengthened this summer so will take a punt on Norwich to repeat the angony seen at Wigan last year. Norwich are a tasty 11/4 to turn over Wigan.
In League 2 Bristol Rovers are at home to another of my teams Torquay United. Rovers played very well and beat Wimbledon last weekend whereas Torquay only managed a 2-2 draw with Burton after being 2 goals down. Paul Buckle the Rovers manager, will look to get one over his old club and I expect Bristol to win this at 5/6.
Finally Swindon travel to local rivals Cheltenham, I expect that Cheltenham will struggle this season and Swindon to go well, Swindon winning last week 3-0 at home and Cheltenham losing away at Gillingham. Swindon should collect 3 more points on Saturday and at 23/20 offer good value.
Once again I will be watching some games to look for some in play markets, if anyone has any betting suggestions please add a comment.
My Yankee is priced as such
8/11
11/4
5/6
23/20
Returns will be £105
Good luck for the weekend!
I have been thinking of where to look for my bet this week and have been looking at the markets for WBA V Manchester United. Man U are very short at 4/9 so I have been looking elsewhere for some value. I thought Man U were very impressive going forward last weekend in the Community Shield however I don't think they look so good at the back. Their new keeper will need some time to get used to the Premiership and looks like a possible weak link. As such I think WBA will score but Man U will still win the game, so the Goals scored market or both teams to score market may hold the value i'm looking for. The prices are 8/11 more than 2.5 goals and 3/4 both teams to score, as this is so close in terms of price I think that the 8/11 on 2.5 goals is the place to go for safety should Man U not concede. If you think WBA will score but Man U will win then that must mean more than 2.5 goals so take your pick here!
Wigan open up against Norwich, this time last year Wigan lost 0-4 to Blackpool, I don't see anything to suggest Wigan have strengthened this summer so will take a punt on Norwich to repeat the angony seen at Wigan last year. Norwich are a tasty 11/4 to turn over Wigan.
In League 2 Bristol Rovers are at home to another of my teams Torquay United. Rovers played very well and beat Wimbledon last weekend whereas Torquay only managed a 2-2 draw with Burton after being 2 goals down. Paul Buckle the Rovers manager, will look to get one over his old club and I expect Bristol to win this at 5/6.
Finally Swindon travel to local rivals Cheltenham, I expect that Cheltenham will struggle this season and Swindon to go well, Swindon winning last week 3-0 at home and Cheltenham losing away at Gillingham. Swindon should collect 3 more points on Saturday and at 23/20 offer good value.
Once again I will be watching some games to look for some in play markets, if anyone has any betting suggestions please add a comment.
My Yankee is priced as such
8/11
11/4
5/6
23/20
Returns will be £105
Good luck for the weekend!
Thursday, 4 August 2011
Stoke Vs Hajduk Split The Return
Tonight sees the second leg of the Europa Qualifiers, with Stoke traveling to Hajduk Split. Stoke won the first leg by a single goal scored in the 3rd minute and I collected a modest win. I expect Tony Pulis to send out a defensive setup tonight in order to get through to the next round as that is worth a lot of money to Stoke.
I have checked last seasons away form and Stoke only managed 1 0-0 all season, they didn't have any at home. Fulham have made a habit of drawing 0-0 away from home in the cup this season so I have a sneaky feeling that we may be due a 0-0 in Split. As I am up 10pts at the moment (10 being my standard bet) I'm going to split the bet with 5pts on 0-0 at 7/1 with bluesq - its also 0-0 with Bet365 but only 4/1 on Betfair which is interesting in its own way! The other 5pts will go on Stoke to win at 11/8, my theory here is that should Split push on to look for the goal they need they are open to a counter attack and a late winner for Stoke which would effectively end the tie, indeed any goal at any time for Stoke should end the contest. I don't normally go for correct score betting but feel 7/1 is a reasonable price.
I have checked last seasons away form and Stoke only managed 1 0-0 all season, they didn't have any at home. Fulham have made a habit of drawing 0-0 away from home in the cup this season so I have a sneaky feeling that we may be due a 0-0 in Split. As I am up 10pts at the moment (10 being my standard bet) I'm going to split the bet with 5pts on 0-0 at 7/1 with bluesq - its also 0-0 with Bet365 but only 4/1 on Betfair which is interesting in its own way! The other 5pts will go on Stoke to win at 11/8, my theory here is that should Split push on to look for the goal they need they are open to a counter attack and a late winner for Stoke which would effectively end the tie, indeed any goal at any time for Stoke should end the contest. I don't normally go for correct score betting but feel 7/1 is a reasonable price.
Saturday, 23 July 2011
Different Betting Options For 2011-2012
Today I have decided to look at a "special" bet being offered by Bet365, this is off the back of our regular contributor tyates86 who provided us with the "bet without Man U and Chelsea"! Here the suggested bet is Man City at 5/4 which does look incredible value.
So what else could we look at to find some value?
We have the "who will score the most goals" market - this is offered by Bet365 click on the link to create an account.
Looking at the previous seasons I'm simply looking at which team scores the most goals, since 2001/02 (with the exception of 2001/02) the teams finishing first or second have always been the highest goals scorers. In 2001/02 the highest scorers were Man U who finished 3rd, albeit only 3 points behind second.
Since then Man U have finished up as top scorers on 4 occasions, Chelsea once (the season the won the league and scored 103 goals - the highest number of goals). So maybe rather than betting on a team to win the league you should consider backing that team to score the most goals as there is a link! Also if your team finished second they could still be leading scorers!
The prices available for the top scorers are
Man City 4/1
Liverpool 13/2
Man U 7/1
Chelsea 9/1
Arsenal 10/1
As you see these prices are much better than betting to win the league! Indeed I find these odds somewhat surprising when you look at the betting for the leading goalscorer. Man U have 2 of the top 3 favorites and Chelsea have the other, these 2 are still the favorites for the league also. So Man U and Chelsea in this market look like fantastic value!
So what else could we look at to find some value?
We have the "who will score the most goals" market - this is offered by Bet365 click on the link to create an account.
Looking at the previous seasons I'm simply looking at which team scores the most goals, since 2001/02 (with the exception of 2001/02) the teams finishing first or second have always been the highest goals scorers. In 2001/02 the highest scorers were Man U who finished 3rd, albeit only 3 points behind second.
Since then Man U have finished up as top scorers on 4 occasions, Chelsea once (the season the won the league and scored 103 goals - the highest number of goals). So maybe rather than betting on a team to win the league you should consider backing that team to score the most goals as there is a link! Also if your team finished second they could still be leading scorers!
The prices available for the top scorers are
Man City 4/1
Liverpool 13/2
Man U 7/1
Chelsea 9/1
Arsenal 10/1
As you see these prices are much better than betting to win the league! Indeed I find these odds somewhat surprising when you look at the betting for the leading goalscorer. Man U have 2 of the top 3 favorites and Chelsea have the other, these 2 are still the favorites for the league also. So Man U and Chelsea in this market look like fantastic value!
Sunday, 17 July 2011
Opening Day fixtures in English League 2
Having identified a possible strategy for the opening day of the football season I have looked at the relegated sides from League 1 last season and assessed their previous form against the teams they are playing on the opening day. To see my comments on how relegated teams get on click here
First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.
Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.
Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.
However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.
Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.
First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.
Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.
Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.
However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.
Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.
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