A bit of a catch up

Now that i'm back from holiday I will hopefully get back on top with my posts. I managed 3 results our of 4 yesterday and picked up 4 out of 4 today. Yesterday I picked up Bournemouth away at Exeter, Bournemouth had a good away win last week and were too big at 2/1 away this weekend. A 2-0 win proved the point and i doubt we will see Bournemouth at that sort of price again for a while to lower league sides. Secondly I went for a short price home team in Southend. They were entertaining a dreadful Plynouth side that is in all sorts of bother again this season, Peter Reid has also just been sacked. This is probably a relief for Peter and I am sure he will succeed elsewhere, maybe back at Stoke working with Pulis? My third selection was Preston away at Brentford. Preston have picked up form lately and at 15/8 were deemed reasonable value and a good win saw the bet home. Finally I had Hereford to draw at home with Gillingham. It was a game where Hereford on form hadnt done much wrong this season and Gillingham done "ok". However the 1-6 scoreline dented the bet and indded gave Gillingham their biggest away win ever! In the premiership all of the promoted sides won on the same weekend for the first time since 2007. This was all the more interesting as only one of the teams were at home and only 1 goal was conceded by the 3 sides. I'm not sure whether this means these teams will be any more successful in avoiding the drop however after watching QPR V Newcastle on Monday night it came as no surprise as they should have won that game easily as well. I think the addition of Joey Barton and Shaun Wright Phillips is huge for QPR and should ensure that they stay up this season. Today I invested some of my winnings on a Yankee, Spurs to win, Sunderland to win, Fulham to draw and Man U to win. My first 4/4 of the season so its been a good day! The reason for the bet was based on Spurs resting the entire squad for the European fixture in midweek. They have had a difficult start with defeats against the Manchester clubs but showed resolved against Wolves last week. They played well today and deserved the 4-0 result. Sunderland have also had a tricky start however it was the fact that Stoke travelled to Kiev in midweek that prompted my selection. Most of the Stoke played have probably never had that sort of travel pattern before and history shows sides playing in Europe struggle on return to the league. Fulham have done ok and look like being draw specialists again, playing a Man City side that struggled in Europe suggested that Fulham might not have enough to win but should be able to get a draw which indeed they did, coming from 0-2 down to draw 2-2. Finally Man U are the stand out side in the league so selecting them to beat Chelsea was straightforward. The Bet paid around 16/1 which made a nice addition to yesterdays 3/4. This week we have Carling Cup action when I expect some more Premier League Teams to fall. I will review the situation and put up my selections on Monday evening.

Weekly Review

It maybe an International weekend and I may still be on holiday but the lower leagues play on all the same so its only right that I complete a review of some of the games.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.

As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.

With games of this type I like to go with the home side.

Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.

Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.

Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.

Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.

In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.

This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.

This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?

In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.

Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.

At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.

Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.

In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.

In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!

In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.

Weekend football information

As I'm currently out of the country my analysis will be short at sweet this week. I won't be betting myself however the following might be of use.

In the premiership Wolves travel to Aston Villa for the early kick off. An interesting fact is that these teams have played the same teams this season already! Wolves beating Fulham and Blackburn, Villa beating Blackburn and drawing with Fulham. The fixture between Villa and Wolves has recently gone with the away team, Wolves winning at Villa in March this year and Villa winning at Wolves late in 2010! I would be tempted by the 14/5 on offer on Wolves to pick this up again and keep their run going.

Last season Wigan only won 5 games at home and play a QPR side that now includes one J Barton signed from Newcastle. I'm not sure whether he will play on Saturday but its an interesting move by QPR! QPR won at Everton last week after being dismantled in their first home game against Bolton. I think Wigan will striggle to win home games again this season so would be looking at QPR at 2/1 or under 2.5 goals at 7/10.

I hope these little tip bits are of help for the weekend, enjoy the football and any other betting opportunities that come up this week!

The Start Of The Premiership 2011/2012

Tomorrow finally sees the start of the premiership season. Its been a long wait and for fans of Tottenham (myself included) and Everton the wait goes on due to the horrific scenes seen in Tottenham last weekend.

I have been thinking of where to look for my bet this week and have been looking at the markets for WBA V Manchester United. Man U are very short at 4/9 so I have been looking elsewhere for some value. I thought Man U were very impressive going forward last weekend in the Community Shield however I don't think they look so good at the back. Their new keeper will need some time to get used to the Premiership and looks like a possible weak link. As such I think WBA will score but Man U will still win the game, so the Goals scored market or both teams to score market may hold the value i'm looking for. The prices are 8/11 more than 2.5 goals and 3/4 both teams to score, as this is so close in terms of price I think that the 8/11 on 2.5 goals is the place to go for safety should Man U not concede. If you think WBA will score but Man U will win then that must mean more than 2.5 goals so take your pick here!

Wigan open up against Norwich, this time last year Wigan lost 0-4 to Blackpool, I don't see anything to suggest Wigan have strengthened this summer so will take a punt on Norwich to repeat the angony seen at Wigan last year. Norwich are a tasty 11/4 to turn over Wigan.

In League 2 Bristol Rovers are at home to another of my teams Torquay United. Rovers played very well and beat Wimbledon last weekend whereas Torquay only managed a 2-2 draw with Burton after being 2 goals down. Paul Buckle the Rovers manager, will look to get one over his old club and I expect Bristol to win this at 5/6.

Finally Swindon travel to local rivals Cheltenham, I expect that Cheltenham will struggle this season and Swindon to go well, Swindon winning last week 3-0 at home and Cheltenham losing away at Gillingham. Swindon should collect 3 more points on Saturday and at 23/20 offer good value.

Once again I will be watching some games to look for some in play markets, if anyone has any betting suggestions please add a comment.

My Yankee is priced as such
8/11
11/4
5/6
23/20

Returns will be £105

Good luck for the weekend!

Carling Cup Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool

Tonight Blackpool will travel to Sheffield to play Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough. This game stands out as Blackpool are available at 8/5 with Bluesq. Blackpool will be without 3 internationals that were involved in internal squads this week and their goalkeeper is out with an injury. This might suggest that now is a good time to play Blackpool or even back against them (Sheffield available at 13/8), however Sheffield Wednesdays aim this season is promotion and with a game against Bournemouth at the weekend it is likely that Gary Megson (Wednesday Manager) could make 11 changes from the weekend!

Blackpool played very well in the Championship opener, fielding 8 players that played in the Premiership so they still have strength in the side. I would expect Holloways men to dominate this game and win it comfortably.

My usual 10pt bet will be going on Blackpool tonight.

A quick note for the weekend, Spurs V Everton has fallen victim to the dreadful scenes seen this week, hopefully this will be rearranged shortly!

Oh and anyone wanting to play in a simple Premiership score prediction game please check this out. Its non profit, free and just a bit of family fun! Many of the players in the this game are under 12's! Come along and have some fun.
Click Here For Prediction Game

Never right off Manchester United and use the bet in play options

Although yesterday was a bit of a disappointment as only Plymouth managed a draw for the relegated League 1 teams it was great to get the football season off and running.

First up yesterday were Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers, i had this down as a draw in my yankee however at 1-0 to Rovers I did back them at 4-5 to win the game as they were all over Wimbledon at the time. Sure enough they scored again before Wimbledon got back in it with Rovers scoring a penalty in the last 10 minutes to win the game 3-2. So although the yankee died a death I was able to collect as I was able to watch the game live and assess the game at the first goal.

I was pleased with Rovers and they look a real danger for the season ahead so fully justifying my bet on them to be champions.

Today I was able to watch the Community shield and when Lescott scored for Manchester City I still felt Manchester United were the better team. Seeing Manchester United at 4-1 was too good to miss so I bet on United to win. At 2-0 the price was a staggering 16-1, I didn't take this unfortunately but a similar thing happened to United last season against Blackpool when Rooney had his issues with the cameraman. At 2-2 Bet365 were still offering 2-1 on United, again too big a price I thought so I took that price as well.

With Nani scoring with the last kick of a great game I was a very happy man! I believe that to bet in play you need to really be watching the game so you can assess the game from your own point of view, that way if you see a price you feel is too big you can lump on and reap the rewards.

I believe Man United were 2-0 twice last season and on both occasions didn't lose the game, I'm sure Fergie had a few words at half time to gee up his troops and it showed in the second half.

Finally, the stats show the team winning the Shield generally go on to win the League!

Football League Full Kick Off Today 2011/2012

I must confess that I was a little disappointed in the Hull City display last night. They had plenty of chances but never really looked like they would score. Its clear that the wows of 23 goals in 21 home games last season could again scupper any promotion bid. As for Blackpool I was pleased to see Ollie (Holloway) get his troops off to a good start, here is a manager full of passion and belief and plays football the right way. I feel they are a couple of players short of a promotion team in my view but with the skills of the management they could overcome that difficulty.

Today I will be placing my bet based on statistics, a few weeks ago I wrote a blog showing the trend for draws in league 2 for relegated teams. So today I will be following that trend and placing a Yankee on all 4 games ending in a draw.

For anyone not sure what a Yankee is I shall give a quick explanation.
A Yankee is made up of 11 bets, so a £1 yankee will cost you £11.

It involves betting on the different combination of games to form doubles, trebles and a 4 timer. The theory is that should one game go south you can still collect on the other 3 games should they deliver.

So
Double bets = 6 bets
Treble bets = 4 bets
4 Timer = 1

In the case of my games if all 4 games win I will collect £339
If I felt that the 4 games would win and I didn't need to split my money on multiple bets i could place £11 on the win. In this case it will return £1363.

As you can see there is a massive difference in the returns, however if I predict 1 game wrong I can still get a smaller return from my Yankee bet but the single £11 bet is dead in the water.

I will also have a bet on Reading to start off with a win at home

AFC Wimbledon V Bristol Rovers (23/10)
Swindon V Crewe (12/5)
Macclesfield Town V Dagenham and Redbridge (9/4 Bluesq)
Shrewsbury V Plymouth Argyle (12/5)

All games to Draw

Reading To Beat Millwall (5/6 Bluesq)

Today is the start of the new English Champioship 2011-2012

Tonight sees the start of the English Championship where Hull City will face relegated Blackpool. Last season Blackpool started well in the Premiership and for a long time it looked like they might stay up. However a dreadful away record finally took its toll and they were relegated after 1 season back to the Championship. Hull City find themselves in the Championship for a second season after they flirted with the Premiership, so both these clubs have parachute payments from the Premier League however only Hull have been spending it.

Blackpool have not spent much money and have lost the likes of DJ Campbell and Charlie Adam, these losses are key to Blackpool and will probably result in Blackpool finishing mid table this term.

Reports are rife about Blackpool players not being motivated, this can only be a bad thing for the club and I expect this to be clearly seen tonight. Holloway will want a good performance but I cannot see it happening.

Hull have a great record over Blackpool at home and I can only see 1 result, that being a home win for Hull City. Hull can be backed at 6/5 with Bluesq and Bet365.

So I'm going 10pts on the home win.

Stoke Vs Hajduk Split The Return

Tonight sees the second leg of the Europa Qualifiers, with Stoke traveling to Hajduk Split. Stoke won the first leg by a single goal scored in the 3rd minute and I collected a modest win. I expect Tony Pulis to send out a defensive setup tonight in order to get through to the next round as that is worth a lot of money to Stoke.

I have checked last seasons away form and Stoke only managed 1 0-0 all season, they didn't have any at home. Fulham have made a habit of drawing 0-0 away from home in the cup this season so I have a sneaky feeling that we may be due a 0-0 in Split. As I am up 10pts at the moment (10 being my standard bet) I'm going to split the bet with 5pts on 0-0 at 7/1 with bluesq - its also 0-0 with Bet365 but only 4/1 on Betfair which is interesting in its own way! The other 5pts will go on Stoke to win at 11/8, my theory here is that should Split push on to look for the goal they need they are open to a counter attack and a late winner for Stoke which would effectively end the tie, indeed any goal at any time for Stoke should end the contest. I don't normally go for correct score betting but feel 7/1 is a reasonable price.

Countdown to the big kick off starts here

With less than 7 days to the opening round of English League football matches its time to focus on the opening fixtures to see if any matches are statistically a good thing to bet on.

For me, preseason friendlies don't offer much in the way of form, as managers swap players around, use different systems and generally use the games to increase the fitness of the staff. Therefore there is no real form to go on for the first couple of weeks of the season so instead I look to the previous performance of teams and gauge whether a certain pattern will continue.

In the English Championship we have Reading, the losing finalists in the play offs. Reading start off against Millwall at home and will be looking for a fast start to the season following their loss to Swansea at Wembley. The 2 sides have played 5 times at Reading in recent history with Reading winning every time. In the reverse fixture Reading have only lost once, so from 10 games 1 defeat for Reading.

Last season Reading were surprisingly turned over by Scunthorpe at home on the opening day, whereas Millwall got a flyer with a 0-3 win at Bristol City.

Looking at other losing play off finalists we see the following

Year	Home Team	Away Team	Score
2010	Cardiff	Sheffield United(PL)	1-1
2009	Middlesborough	Sheffield United(PL)	0-0
2008	Blackpool	Bristol City(PL)	0-1
2007	Burnley	WBA(PL)	2-1
2006	Leeds(PL)	Norwich	2-1
2005	Watford	Preston(PL)	1-2
2004	Leicester	West Ham United(PL)	0-0
2003	Sheffield United (PL)	Gillingham	0-0
2002	Norwich City (PL)	Grimsby	0-0

The table shows us that only West Brom have lost on the opening day after losing the play off final in the championship. This is a reasonable form guide and suggests that these sides are able to keep the core of the team together from that defeat. We see a lot of draws in this sequence however given Readings fine form against Millwall and no worrying sequence for losing play off finalists I will be including Reading in my list for next Saturday.

Hunting that special value bet - off topic

This morning I was watching the prices for the England Vs India Cricket match starting at Trent Bridge. To my amazement just after the toss I saw that they were offering at 500/1 on the draw! I have already checked the weather forecast and the draw is an unlikely result however this bet was too good to miss! So I have placed 2 bets for £2 at 500/1 on the draw!

This was available on Bluesq - within a couple of minutes the price had changed to 15/8 and then 2/1!

here is a image of my bet

Selections
Selection 1 Draw @ 500/1 To Win - Not Settled
Market Match Winner
Event England v India
2nd Test - England v India
11:00 29/07/2011
Bet Type Single
Unit Stake £2.00
Number of Units x1
Stake £2.00
Time and Date Placed 10:36 29/07/2011

Update: Bluesq have now cancelled my bet! Apparently this is considered to be a "palpable" error in price and the bet will not stand. I have asked some more questions around this out of interest and havent got very far, so I will be emailing them for more information.

I will keep you posted.......

The New Domestic English Football Season 2011/2012 Has Arrived

It seems a long time since the FA Cup final back in May, and even longer was the fateful day Arsenal turned up at Wembley to collect their Carling Cup only to be turned over by Birmingham City, this seemed to be the trigger for the end of the Arsenal fight on all fronts. That game was played in front of 88,851 screaming fans and countless TV viewers and radio listeners. The date was the 27 February 2011 and unbeknown to all that result was going to have an effect on the 2011-2012 Carling Cup competition.

A number of years ago the authorities brought in a rule in England stating that any side qualifying for European competition would get a bye to the third round of the Carling Cup. This was to save a game for those tired footballers that had to fly around Europe in Business Class (stay focused Martin don't get side tracked). As Birmingham won the Cup they get a bye to the third round of the competition, and because they were relegated it means that there is now an odd number of sides in the first round of the cup! This is an interesting scenario as it hasnt come up before in this competition - we had a similar issue when Man United decided to play in the Club World Championship rather than fulfill their domestic obligations and play in the FA Cup.

The solution to this problem was that the 2 lowest ranked sides would have a play off to see who will go into the first round of the Carling Cup proper. The 2 lowest ranked sides from last season playing in this seasons competition are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon, the 2 sides promoted from the Conference. It seems a shame that one of these 2 will miss out on playing a more lucrative first round tie however it seems the logical solution.

So tonight, 29 July 2011 the Carling Cup begins when Crawley Town entertain AFC Wimbledon. The winners will go on to play away at Crystal Palace. This seems rather interesting as Wimbledon used to be tenants at the home of Crystal Palace before they upset many people and decamped to Milton Keynes. Are the footballing gods looking down on us and telling us that Wimbledon will get their day at Selhurst Park or will the match go the way of big money spenders Crawley?

Last season these sides both won the home fixtures against each other, so i believe this game will be closer than the bookies seem to want to make out.
Crawley are available at 8/11 , its 5/2 the draw and Wimbledon a huge 10/3.

If nothing else this game may give a us a view to how the teams have got on in the summer recruiting players and how well they will gel in the early weeks of the season.

So here we go! the domestic football season gets underway tonight, probably for the first time its before the Charity Shield (or community shield) that is the season curtain raiser. For me, I may watch the game and look at some in play markets.

To see my bet status click here

Final Season Long Selections

I have now posted my selections for the coming season. The theory behind my selections are documented through the blog, however if you would like clarification on any of the selections let me know.

All of my prices come from Bluesq and Bet365. If you would like to set up an account and get some free bets for the season
click Here for Bluesq
click Here for Bet365

To see my selections click here

Different Betting Options For 2011-2012

Today I have decided to look at a "special" bet being offered by Bet365, this is off the back of our regular contributor tyates86 who provided us with the "bet without Man U and Chelsea"! Here the suggested bet is Man City at 5/4 which does look incredible value.

So what else could we look at to find some value?

We have the "who will score the most goals" market - this is offered by Bet365 click on the link to create an account.

Looking at the previous seasons I'm simply looking at which team scores the most goals, since 2001/02 (with the exception of 2001/02) the teams finishing first or second have always been the highest goals scorers. In 2001/02 the highest scorers were Man U who finished 3rd, albeit only 3 points behind second.

Since then Man U have finished up as top scorers on 4 occasions, Chelsea once (the season the won the league and scored 103 goals - the highest number of goals). So maybe rather than betting on a team to win the league you should consider backing that team to score the most goals as there is a link! Also if your team finished second they could still be leading scorers!

The prices available for the top scorers are

Man City 4/1
Liverpool 13/2
Man U 7/1
Chelsea 9/1
Arsenal 10/1

As you see these prices are much better than betting to win the league! Indeed I find these odds somewhat surprising when you look at the betting for the leading goalscorer. Man U have 2 of the top 3 favorites and Chelsea have the other, these 2 are still the favorites for the league also. So Man U and Chelsea in this market look like fantastic value!

Opening Day fixtures in English League 2

Having identified a possible strategy for the opening day of the football season I have looked at the relegated sides from League 1 last season and assessed their previous form against the teams they are playing on the opening day. To see my comments on how relegated teams get on click here

First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.

Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.

Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.

However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.

Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.

The start of life in English League 2

When teams get relegated to the 4th tier of English football they find themselves one step away from the dreaded Conference League! The Conference League is "dreaded" because it is now overflowing with professional League teams all intent on getting out of it and back into League 2. So when a team is relegated from League 1 into League 2 I would have thought every effort would be made to get off to a fast start to retain the League status of the club. Teams playing in League 1 the previous season should in theory be stronger than many of the League 2 conterparts however the results of the opening fixtures do nothing to support this theory!

Looking at the past 7 seasons we see that the win % of teams relegated the previous season is not very good! Indeed taking the opening 2 fixtures for all of the teams relegated we see that in 27 of the fixtures we saw a draw. I find this an incredible stat as we saw 14 wins and 15 loses. So almost 50% of the opening 2 games played by relegated teams in League 2 end in a draw!

If we look at the opening day fixtures alone we see 53% of the games ended in a draw - this represents 15 games, we saw 8 wins and 5 loses inthe same selection of games.

In the 2007/08 season all 4 teams drew on the opening day. Since then we have seen a minimum of 2 games drawn on opening day with 3 games being drawn last season. Please note that some of the relegated teams played each other which slightly skews the stats.

Looking at the fixtures for the relegated teams.
Wimbledon V Bristol Rovers
Swindon V Crewe
Shrewsbury V Plymouth
Macclesfield V Dagenham & Redbridge

Its not out of the question that these 4 games could end in draws. I am tempted to do some research on these games to look for other factors and then possibly place some combination bets on draws occuring here in the attempt to pick up some early winnings at the start of the new football season.

I would need 2 results to come in to cover my bet and 3 or more would give me a healthy profit on the opening day.

I will post my research on these 4 specific games once I have completed it!

How do teams promoted from League 2 get on in League 1

I'm almost at the end of my review of promoted and relegated teams performances and today is the turn of the promoted sides from League 2. To clarify, 4 teams get promoted rather than the 3 up to the championship and the premiership, this means we have more games to look for trends.

It seems that promoted teams do not fair very well when they start out on their League 1 adventure. Of the past 7 seasons we have seen 8 wins, 13 loses and 7 draws in the opening day fixtures. This is not a good stat for those new teams however after the opening day fixture these teams find out quickly how to play at this level.

In the last 4 seasons we have only seen 2 sides win on opening day, 2 seasons ago Gillingham won at home and Brentford won away. Last season we saw 3 loses and 1 draw. 2 of the loses were away, the draw was at home.

Interestingly however, Dagenham last season became the first playoff winning side to lose on opening day since Southend in 05-06. Indeed Dagenham and Southend are the only defeated sides winning the League 2 playoff in the 7 years reviewed, 3 sides have won and there have been 2 draws.

The play off winners this year were Stevenage and they will be at home to Exeter City. Exeter did well last season finishing in the top half and picked up some good wins along the way. Exeter are not particularly good starters away from home so this is a possibility for my opening selections.

Bury travel to Huddersfield. Huddersfield lost out in the play offs and are considered by the bookies to be one of the favorites for promotion. SO I cannot see Bury getting a win on opening day. Wycombe entertain relegated Scunthorpe see my blog to see how relegated teams get on! Given the trends I reckon this is likely to end in a draw. Finally Chesterfield will play Tranmere, Tranmere avoided relegation by 8 points which was fair enough and probably end in the bottom half next season as well. They did pick up 9 wins at home so have some ability there. Its a tough game to call so I won't give advice however the stats suggest Chesterfield won't win!

How do promoted teams get on in the Championship

Having reviewed a lot of stats, it seems there are no consistent patterns that provide definate results. However there are some interesting trends that can hopefully be used to our advantage come match day.

I have looked at teams promoted to the Championship to see how they get on in their opening 2 fixtures. The past 7 seasons have been used which means 42 games are being analysed.

In total these teams have given us 14 wins, 12 defeats and 16 draws. This is quite interesting as we haven't seen draws coming out on top in any other specific analysis so far. If we look at the opening day fixtures for these sides we see 6 wins, 8 defeats and 7 draws. This is not particularly good form for the teams themselves however should act as a warning for ourselves. Last season Norwich and Leeds opened with home defeats whereas Millwall started with an away win.

The previous season we saw the reverse with Leicester winning at home and Peterborough and Scunthorpe started with away defeats.

If we ignore these 2 sets of results and the set from 05-06 we would see that draws were a regular sight on opening day, indeed 7 draws were see in the 12 games reviewed.

Teams playing at home on opening day have won twice, lost twice and drawn on 5 occasions.

Home form is important to us here as we can see that all 3 promoted sides this year are due to play at home.
Brighton will play Doncaster, Southampton will play Leeds and Peterborough will play Crystal Palace.

Brighton have played Doncaster twice in the last 10 seasons, so there isn't much form to go on, we have seen 1 home win and 1 away win.

Southampton have played Leeds on 5 occasions. Interestingly Southampton have won on 4 occasions, losing only once. However they have never played each other this early into a season.

Finally Peterborough have played Crystal Palace only once in 10 seasons and on that occasion the game ended in a draw, this game was in August in 2009.

There isn't much recent form naturally, as these are promoted teams there is definately no clear trend however I do find it interesting that there hasn't been a draw on opening day involving promoted teams for 2 seasons. We have also never see all 3 sides lose on opening day and we have not seen all 3 sides starting at home on the same day!

to see how teams relegated from the championship get on click here

How do relegated Championship teams start in League 1

In recent years the profile of a relegated team from the Championship has changed. It seemed to be that the relegated teams were either yoyo teams that were too good for League 1 but not good enough for the championship or teams fighting above their weight for a season or 2. However in recent times the championship teams being relegated have been ex Premiership teams that have fallen from grace, usually due to bad financial management at the club. Leicester, Leeds, Man City, Forest, Southampton, Charlton and Norwich all match this profile.

The data is taken from the past 7 seasons of League 1.

This season we saw Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe relegated. Scunthorpe could be seen as the yoyo side whereas Sheffield United are ex Premiership and were in the playoffs for promotion recently and Preston generally were a top half side for many years.

The teams relegated in 09/10 (Plymouth, Peterborough and Sheffield Weds) all started with wins the following season. This was the first time all 3 relegated teams have started with a win. Interestingly 2 of them lost the second game and the other had a draw. Looking at the other teams relegated over the years there doesn't seem to be a particular trend or pattern. Leeds and Brighton both won their opening 2 games, the only 2 to achieve this is in the years I was reviewing.

We have see 14 wins, 14 defeats, 14 draws in the opening 2 fixtures for the past 7 years! So given this stat i don't think finding easy bets in League 1 on relegated teams is going to be possible!

However teams playing at home on opening day have only lost twice, the latest being Norwich who were beaten 7-1 at home by Colchester, but ended up winning the League that season!

Preston are the only team at home and indeed they are home to Colchester! Preston are clear favourites to win but if you fancy a repeat of the Norwich result Colchester are a nice price!

I will be doing a review of promoted teams to the championship next, hopefully that will give some better trends to follow.

Opening fixtures performance for teams relegated to the championship

Teams being relegated from the Premiership perform much better after being relegated in their opening 2 fixtures than the teams that were promoted. Over the 7 seasons analysed 16 games resulted in sides winning 1 of their opening 2 fixtures, with 7 occurring in the opening games. In total relegated teams won 16, drew 14 and lost 12 of the opening 2 fixtures.

In the opening games we see that there were 7 wins, 9 draws and 5 defeats. Last season only Portsmouth lost, a team that was ravaged in debt and short of playing staff, both Hull and Burnley started with home wins. In the season before all 3 teams (Newcastle, Middlesborough and WBA) all drew on opening day.

In 15 games played by relegated teams at home on opening day only 2 teams have lost, 7 have drawn and 6 have won.

Only 6 games have therefore been played away from home by relegated sides so there is little form to go on, we see 3 defeats, 2 draws and only Watford in 2007/08 have won away on opening day.

This season we see West Ham playing at home to Cardiff. Cardiff have not started away from home for a number of seasons but history then shows 1 away win, 1 away defeat and 1 away draw meaning this is hard to predict. Equally, there are not definate patterns for Hull Vs Blackpool or Derby Vs Birmingham.

Its worth noting however that only 3 teams in the past 3 seasons (so 9 teams) have failed to win one of their opening 2 fixtures, indeed all teams relegated that drew in that period on the opening day went on to win their second fixture.

I will probably steer clear of the relegated teams on opening day and see if I can pick up on the second round of games once the results from week one are known.