When teams get relegated to the 4th tier of English football they find themselves one step away from the dreaded Conference League! The Conference League is "dreaded" because it is now overflowing with professional League teams all intent on getting out of it and back into League 2. So when a team is relegated from League 1 into League 2 I would have thought every effort would be made to get off to a fast start to retain the League status of the club. Teams playing in League 1 the previous season should in theory be stronger than many of the League 2 conterparts however the results of the opening fixtures do nothing to support this theory!
Looking at the past 7 seasons we see that the win % of teams relegated the previous season is not very good! Indeed taking the opening 2 fixtures for all of the teams relegated we see that in 27 of the fixtures we saw a draw. I find this an incredible stat as we saw 14 wins and 15 loses. So almost 50% of the opening 2 games played by relegated teams in League 2 end in a draw!
If we look at the opening day fixtures alone we see 53% of the games ended in a draw - this represents 15 games, we saw 8 wins and 5 loses inthe same selection of games.
In the 2007/08 season all 4 teams drew on the opening day. Since then we have seen a minimum of 2 games drawn on opening day with 3 games being drawn last season. Please note that some of the relegated teams played each other which slightly skews the stats.
Looking at the fixtures for the relegated teams.
Wimbledon V Bristol Rovers
Swindon V Crewe
Shrewsbury V Plymouth
Macclesfield V Dagenham & Redbridge
Its not out of the question that these 4 games could end in draws. I am tempted to do some research on these games to look for other factors and then possibly place some combination bets on draws occuring here in the attempt to pick up some early winnings at the start of the new football season.
I would need 2 results to come in to cover my bet and 3 or more would give me a healthy profit on the opening day.
I will post my research on these 4 specific games once I have completed it!
Showing posts with label prem. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prem. Show all posts
Saturday, 16 July 2011
Tuesday, 12 July 2011
How do teams promoted from League 2 get on in League 1
I'm almost at the end of my review of promoted and relegated teams performances and today is the turn of the promoted sides from League 2. To clarify, 4 teams get promoted rather than the 3 up to the championship and the premiership, this means we have more games to look for trends.
It seems that promoted teams do not fair very well when they start out on their League 1 adventure. Of the past 7 seasons we have seen 8 wins, 13 loses and 7 draws in the opening day fixtures. This is not a good stat for those new teams however after the opening day fixture these teams find out quickly how to play at this level.
In the last 4 seasons we have only seen 2 sides win on opening day, 2 seasons ago Gillingham won at home and Brentford won away. Last season we saw 3 loses and 1 draw. 2 of the loses were away, the draw was at home.
Interestingly however, Dagenham last season became the first playoff winning side to lose on opening day since Southend in 05-06. Indeed Dagenham and Southend are the only defeated sides winning the League 2 playoff in the 7 years reviewed, 3 sides have won and there have been 2 draws.
The play off winners this year were Stevenage and they will be at home to Exeter City. Exeter did well last season finishing in the top half and picked up some good wins along the way. Exeter are not particularly good starters away from home so this is a possibility for my opening selections.
Bury travel to Huddersfield. Huddersfield lost out in the play offs and are considered by the bookies to be one of the favorites for promotion. SO I cannot see Bury getting a win on opening day. Wycombe entertain relegated Scunthorpe see my blog to see how relegated teams get on! Given the trends I reckon this is likely to end in a draw. Finally Chesterfield will play Tranmere, Tranmere avoided relegation by 8 points which was fair enough and probably end in the bottom half next season as well. They did pick up 9 wins at home so have some ability there. Its a tough game to call so I won't give advice however the stats suggest Chesterfield won't win!
It seems that promoted teams do not fair very well when they start out on their League 1 adventure. Of the past 7 seasons we have seen 8 wins, 13 loses and 7 draws in the opening day fixtures. This is not a good stat for those new teams however after the opening day fixture these teams find out quickly how to play at this level.
In the last 4 seasons we have only seen 2 sides win on opening day, 2 seasons ago Gillingham won at home and Brentford won away. Last season we saw 3 loses and 1 draw. 2 of the loses were away, the draw was at home.
Interestingly however, Dagenham last season became the first playoff winning side to lose on opening day since Southend in 05-06. Indeed Dagenham and Southend are the only defeated sides winning the League 2 playoff in the 7 years reviewed, 3 sides have won and there have been 2 draws.
The play off winners this year were Stevenage and they will be at home to Exeter City. Exeter did well last season finishing in the top half and picked up some good wins along the way. Exeter are not particularly good starters away from home so this is a possibility for my opening selections.
Bury travel to Huddersfield. Huddersfield lost out in the play offs and are considered by the bookies to be one of the favorites for promotion. SO I cannot see Bury getting a win on opening day. Wycombe entertain relegated Scunthorpe see my blog to see how relegated teams get on! Given the trends I reckon this is likely to end in a draw. Finally Chesterfield will play Tranmere, Tranmere avoided relegation by 8 points which was fair enough and probably end in the bottom half next season as well. They did pick up 9 wins at home so have some ability there. Its a tough game to call so I won't give advice however the stats suggest Chesterfield won't win!
Tuesday, 5 July 2011
How do relegated Championship teams start in League 1
In recent years the profile of a relegated team from the Championship has changed. It seemed to be that the relegated teams were either yoyo teams that were too good for League 1 but not good enough for the championship or teams fighting above their weight for a season or 2. However in recent times the championship teams being relegated have been ex Premiership teams that have fallen from grace, usually due to bad financial management at the club. Leicester, Leeds, Man City, Forest, Southampton, Charlton and Norwich all match this profile.
The data is taken from the past 7 seasons of League 1.
This season we saw Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe relegated. Scunthorpe could be seen as the yoyo side whereas Sheffield United are ex Premiership and were in the playoffs for promotion recently and Preston generally were a top half side for many years.
The teams relegated in 09/10 (Plymouth, Peterborough and Sheffield Weds) all started with wins the following season. This was the first time all 3 relegated teams have started with a win. Interestingly 2 of them lost the second game and the other had a draw. Looking at the other teams relegated over the years there doesn't seem to be a particular trend or pattern. Leeds and Brighton both won their opening 2 games, the only 2 to achieve this is in the years I was reviewing.
We have see 14 wins, 14 defeats, 14 draws in the opening 2 fixtures for the past 7 years! So given this stat i don't think finding easy bets in League 1 on relegated teams is going to be possible!
However teams playing at home on opening day have only lost twice, the latest being Norwich who were beaten 7-1 at home by Colchester, but ended up winning the League that season!
Preston are the only team at home and indeed they are home to Colchester! Preston are clear favourites to win but if you fancy a repeat of the Norwich result Colchester are a nice price!
I will be doing a review of promoted teams to the championship next, hopefully that will give some better trends to follow.
The data is taken from the past 7 seasons of League 1.
This season we saw Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe relegated. Scunthorpe could be seen as the yoyo side whereas Sheffield United are ex Premiership and were in the playoffs for promotion recently and Preston generally were a top half side for many years.
The teams relegated in 09/10 (Plymouth, Peterborough and Sheffield Weds) all started with wins the following season. This was the first time all 3 relegated teams have started with a win. Interestingly 2 of them lost the second game and the other had a draw. Looking at the other teams relegated over the years there doesn't seem to be a particular trend or pattern. Leeds and Brighton both won their opening 2 games, the only 2 to achieve this is in the years I was reviewing.
We have see 14 wins, 14 defeats, 14 draws in the opening 2 fixtures for the past 7 years! So given this stat i don't think finding easy bets in League 1 on relegated teams is going to be possible!
However teams playing at home on opening day have only lost twice, the latest being Norwich who were beaten 7-1 at home by Colchester, but ended up winning the League that season!
Preston are the only team at home and indeed they are home to Colchester! Preston are clear favourites to win but if you fancy a repeat of the Norwich result Colchester are a nice price!
I will be doing a review of promoted teams to the championship next, hopefully that will give some better trends to follow.
Thursday, 30 June 2011
Opening fixtures performance for teams relegated to the championship
Teams being relegated from the Premiership perform much better after being relegated in their opening 2 fixtures than the teams that were promoted. Over the 7 seasons analysed 16 games resulted in sides winning 1 of their opening 2 fixtures, with 7 occurring in the opening games. In total relegated teams won 16, drew 14 and lost 12 of the opening 2 fixtures.
In the opening games we see that there were 7 wins, 9 draws and 5 defeats. Last season only Portsmouth lost, a team that was ravaged in debt and short of playing staff, both Hull and Burnley started with home wins. In the season before all 3 teams (Newcastle, Middlesborough and WBA) all drew on opening day.
In 15 games played by relegated teams at home on opening day only 2 teams have lost, 7 have drawn and 6 have won.
Only 6 games have therefore been played away from home by relegated sides so there is little form to go on, we see 3 defeats, 2 draws and only Watford in 2007/08 have won away on opening day.
This season we see West Ham playing at home to Cardiff. Cardiff have not started away from home for a number of seasons but history then shows 1 away win, 1 away defeat and 1 away draw meaning this is hard to predict. Equally, there are not definate patterns for Hull Vs Blackpool or Derby Vs Birmingham.
Its worth noting however that only 3 teams in the past 3 seasons (so 9 teams) have failed to win one of their opening 2 fixtures, indeed all teams relegated that drew in that period on the opening day went on to win their second fixture.
I will probably steer clear of the relegated teams on opening day and see if I can pick up on the second round of games once the results from week one are known.
In the opening games we see that there were 7 wins, 9 draws and 5 defeats. Last season only Portsmouth lost, a team that was ravaged in debt and short of playing staff, both Hull and Burnley started with home wins. In the season before all 3 teams (Newcastle, Middlesborough and WBA) all drew on opening day.
In 15 games played by relegated teams at home on opening day only 2 teams have lost, 7 have drawn and 6 have won.
Only 6 games have therefore been played away from home by relegated sides so there is little form to go on, we see 3 defeats, 2 draws and only Watford in 2007/08 have won away on opening day.
This season we see West Ham playing at home to Cardiff. Cardiff have not started away from home for a number of seasons but history then shows 1 away win, 1 away defeat and 1 away draw meaning this is hard to predict. Equally, there are not definate patterns for Hull Vs Blackpool or Derby Vs Birmingham.
Its worth noting however that only 3 teams in the past 3 seasons (so 9 teams) have failed to win one of their opening 2 fixtures, indeed all teams relegated that drew in that period on the opening day went on to win their second fixture.
I will probably steer clear of the relegated teams on opening day and see if I can pick up on the second round of games once the results from week one are known.
Assessing the opening day performance of teams promoted to the English Premiership
The search for helpful statistics continues and today I have been analysing the past 7 seasons, looking at teams being promoted and relegated from the English premiership. My focus was on the first 2 fixtures played, to allow me to assess how teams start in a new League. Before looking at the numbers my impression was that teams coming up would start well as the players and staff would be on a high and fully motivated for life in a higher league, and those teams going down would struggle with life in a lower league where grounds are smaller, pay is smaller and a different style of football is played.
My findings showed that teams being promoted won only 8 of the 21 games played and of that 5 of those were won on the opening day, 5 draws and 11 defeats. We have to take into account that on occasions teams being promoted played each other and therefore these results just balanced themselves out. Last season we saw that only Blackpool won of the promoted sides in a 0-4 win at Wigan. Newcastle and WBA both lost away although they did play Manchester United and Chelsea!
Of teams playing at home on opening day, Wolves lost last season but we have to go back to 2005/06 to find a promoted team losing on opening day at home. That year Sunderland and Wigan both lost, we need to also be aware that Sunderland were also relegated in that season with the lowest points score ever seen on the Premiership of 15 points! There have been 10 home fixtures in the 21 fixtures looked at with 4 wins and 3 draws.
QPR are the only team at home on opening day and will play Bolton. Bolton have a poor away record on opening day, although for the past 5 seasons they have played at home on opening day. Their record is 3 wins 2 draws and 4 defeats on opening day in the past 9 seasons.
The current manager at QPR is Neil Warnock, when he brought Sheffield United up he started at home with a draw. Owen Coyle, the man at Bolton lost last season as Bolton manager and lost away when he brought Burnley up, making Mr Coyle a bad option on opening day!
QPR could be one to take a chance on during the first rounds of fixtures.
In my next blog I will be considering relegated teams in full and seeing if we can find a pattern and a option to go with QPR.
If you would like me to research a specific pattern please get in touch let me know.
My findings showed that teams being promoted won only 8 of the 21 games played and of that 5 of those were won on the opening day, 5 draws and 11 defeats. We have to take into account that on occasions teams being promoted played each other and therefore these results just balanced themselves out. Last season we saw that only Blackpool won of the promoted sides in a 0-4 win at Wigan. Newcastle and WBA both lost away although they did play Manchester United and Chelsea!
Of teams playing at home on opening day, Wolves lost last season but we have to go back to 2005/06 to find a promoted team losing on opening day at home. That year Sunderland and Wigan both lost, we need to also be aware that Sunderland were also relegated in that season with the lowest points score ever seen on the Premiership of 15 points! There have been 10 home fixtures in the 21 fixtures looked at with 4 wins and 3 draws.
QPR are the only team at home on opening day and will play Bolton. Bolton have a poor away record on opening day, although for the past 5 seasons they have played at home on opening day. Their record is 3 wins 2 draws and 4 defeats on opening day in the past 9 seasons.
The current manager at QPR is Neil Warnock, when he brought Sheffield United up he started at home with a draw. Owen Coyle, the man at Bolton lost last season as Bolton manager and lost away when he brought Burnley up, making Mr Coyle a bad option on opening day!
QPR could be one to take a chance on during the first rounds of fixtures.
In my next blog I will be considering relegated teams in full and seeing if we can find a pattern and a option to go with QPR.
If you would like me to research a specific pattern please get in touch let me know.
Sunday, 26 June 2011
Early Review Of The Premiership for 2011/2012
Now that the management situation has been sorted out at the top of the Premiership we can look at the chances for the top sides for the coming season. Once again Chelsea disposed of a manager for not winning the Champions League and have employed a relative unknown manager from Portugal (is history repeating itself). Andre Villas-Boas takes over at Stamford Bridge after securing the Portugese Super Cup, The League and the Europa League with Porto last term. Mr Villas-Boas becomes the current youngest manager in the Premier League and has a huge job on his hands. He will not have time to settle in, he will be required to win silverware immediately. This is not unusual for Chelsea managers in recent times, however now Chelsea have to compete with Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City making the job even harder than it once was.
Jose Mourinho managed to win the League in his first season, as did Ancelloti, however the other Chelsea managers have all failed.
Since 1992 Manchester United have won 12 championships and only once failed to win at least back to back championships. As they won the League last season the statistics suggest that they could again produce back to back wins. Last season was not see as the perfect season for Manchester United however they won the League by 9 points and got to the Champions League final - not bad for a poor side!
Arsenal once again flattered to deceive and their season collapsed once they lost the Carling Cup Final. For Arsenal to be challengers again they need to spend some money and spend real money on a number of top class players rather than youngsters that can be developed, ultimately get fed up and move on to win silverware elsewhere.
The top clubs have been relatively quiet in the transfer market so far, its been more about who isn't for sale rather than who is on the move. Spurs have rejected speak of Modric leaving, Arsenal the same with Fabregas and Man city insist Tevez is staying. Time will tell whether these players remain at their respective clubs, after Andre Villas-Boas siad in May he and all of his players would be staying at Porto! For Chelseas sake lets hope his is better at football management than seeing into the future!
Liverpool have been spending money buying Jordan Henderson for £16M from Sunderland. I'm still amazed at how much footballers cost! If Henderson is £16M what doe sthat make Fabregas or Modric if measured directly?
Manchester United have captured the signing of long term target Ashley Young and Phil Jones again both players signing for around the £16M mark. I will be watching with interest whether a new goalkeeper is bought at Old Trafford and if so who it is to replace the retiring van der Sar. The retirement of Scholes should not be too much of an inconvenience as he rarely started games in any case. A bigger loss will be Hargreaves as he never delivered after his transfer from Munich.
I expect the Premiership to become a 2 horse race between the Manchester clubs. They have the playing staff and the money to force their way to the top and City could run United close. I will reflect on this in August once the signings are pretty much done but I take Manchester United to finish just ahead of City as was the case this past season. Currently Manchester United are a 7/4 shot and City 3/1.
To see the review of the Championship, League 1 or League 2 click on the links below
To see the reviews for the leagues click on the links below
League 1
League 2
English Championship
Jose Mourinho managed to win the League in his first season, as did Ancelloti, however the other Chelsea managers have all failed.
Since 1992 Manchester United have won 12 championships and only once failed to win at least back to back championships. As they won the League last season the statistics suggest that they could again produce back to back wins. Last season was not see as the perfect season for Manchester United however they won the League by 9 points and got to the Champions League final - not bad for a poor side!
Arsenal once again flattered to deceive and their season collapsed once they lost the Carling Cup Final. For Arsenal to be challengers again they need to spend some money and spend real money on a number of top class players rather than youngsters that can be developed, ultimately get fed up and move on to win silverware elsewhere.
The top clubs have been relatively quiet in the transfer market so far, its been more about who isn't for sale rather than who is on the move. Spurs have rejected speak of Modric leaving, Arsenal the same with Fabregas and Man city insist Tevez is staying. Time will tell whether these players remain at their respective clubs, after Andre Villas-Boas siad in May he and all of his players would be staying at Porto! For Chelseas sake lets hope his is better at football management than seeing into the future!
Liverpool have been spending money buying Jordan Henderson for £16M from Sunderland. I'm still amazed at how much footballers cost! If Henderson is £16M what doe sthat make Fabregas or Modric if measured directly?
Manchester United have captured the signing of long term target Ashley Young and Phil Jones again both players signing for around the £16M mark. I will be watching with interest whether a new goalkeeper is bought at Old Trafford and if so who it is to replace the retiring van der Sar. The retirement of Scholes should not be too much of an inconvenience as he rarely started games in any case. A bigger loss will be Hargreaves as he never delivered after his transfer from Munich.
I expect the Premiership to become a 2 horse race between the Manchester clubs. They have the playing staff and the money to force their way to the top and City could run United close. I will reflect on this in August once the signings are pretty much done but I take Manchester United to finish just ahead of City as was the case this past season. Currently Manchester United are a 7/4 shot and City 3/1.
To see the review of the Championship, League 1 or League 2 click on the links below
To see the reviews for the leagues click on the links below
League 1
League 2
English Championship
Friday, 24 June 2011
Home Win Draw and Away Win Percentage Review
I have spent some time looking around the internet to see what systems are used by punters to try and give themselves an edge against the bookies. Using the stats available to me I have started to analyse % win ratios for the 4 English Leagues. As I always say this data only shows what did happen and not what is going to happen and therefore this should only ever be used as a guide when looking for that next winning bet.
If we look at the past 10 seasons as as whole for all leagues we see something quite interesting, and probably not too surprising to the masses.
We see that the % of home wins far outweighs the % of draws or away wins. Its always interesting to me to look at why this is the case, and to this day I don't fully understand it however its a fact - year on year there is always over 40% of games are won by the home side.
Here is the break down for each league for the past 10 seasons.
The Premier League consistently comes out on top with an even higher average for home wins. So the moral of this story is not to back too many away wins and draws as there aren't that many as a percentage! However if you do find one make sure you have backed it!
So what about days of the week? do we see a different pattern when we look at days of the week?
Here we can see the results as actual games rather than % - the trend follows for a Tuesday in the same vein as a Saturday, the difference is small enough to suggest there is no difference for a midweek game over a weekend game.
I read recently that someone placed 10 bets at the weekend, they selected 2 teams such as Manchester United and Celtic and then added a game to draw. They picked 10 different games to provide a chance of picking up some winning bets. You need approx 3 of the 10 teams to draw in any one week to make a small profit. We see from the chart above that its rare to see the number of draws to be over 30% for any one season so I don't think this tactic would work in the long term. However I was curious to know what return I might have got had i done this last season.
Rather than pick 2 teams I just picked Manchester United as they were the team with the most home wins and I only did the check for weeks where Manchester United were at home. My matches for the draw were all of League 2 - or at least any League 2 game occuring on the same weekend as Manchester United playing at home. What I found was that we had a good start. Infact in Manchester Uniteds 19 home wins, using this system would have paid out in profit on 6 occasions. There would have been 3 occasions where there was no bet and one one occasion no draws in the league corresponding to the home win. so 6 out of 16 is a 37% hit rate, which is slightly higher than our draw model however the net effect at the end of the season was a £117 loss. The reason for picking League 2 was because they had the most draws last season.
So although this plan looks like a good one, finding the teams to draw is not as easy as it looks, even if you take the view that a team has to draw at some point! Now should you get lucky and get 6 or 7 draws in a weekend then the profit is certainly there, but on statistics I don't think this is one to follow in the long term.
If we look at the past 10 seasons as as whole for all leagues we see something quite interesting, and probably not too surprising to the masses.
We see that the % of home wins far outweighs the % of draws or away wins. Its always interesting to me to look at why this is the case, and to this day I don't fully understand it however its a fact - year on year there is always over 40% of games are won by the home side.
Here is the break down for each league for the past 10 seasons.
So what about days of the week? do we see a different pattern when we look at days of the week?
Here we can see the results as actual games rather than % - the trend follows for a Tuesday in the same vein as a Saturday, the difference is small enough to suggest there is no difference for a midweek game over a weekend game.
I read recently that someone placed 10 bets at the weekend, they selected 2 teams such as Manchester United and Celtic and then added a game to draw. They picked 10 different games to provide a chance of picking up some winning bets. You need approx 3 of the 10 teams to draw in any one week to make a small profit. We see from the chart above that its rare to see the number of draws to be over 30% for any one season so I don't think this tactic would work in the long term. However I was curious to know what return I might have got had i done this last season.
Rather than pick 2 teams I just picked Manchester United as they were the team with the most home wins and I only did the check for weeks where Manchester United were at home. My matches for the draw were all of League 2 - or at least any League 2 game occuring on the same weekend as Manchester United playing at home. What I found was that we had a good start. Infact in Manchester Uniteds 19 home wins, using this system would have paid out in profit on 6 occasions. There would have been 3 occasions where there was no bet and one one occasion no draws in the league corresponding to the home win. so 6 out of 16 is a 37% hit rate, which is slightly higher than our draw model however the net effect at the end of the season was a £117 loss. The reason for picking League 2 was because they had the most draws last season.
So although this plan looks like a good one, finding the teams to draw is not as easy as it looks, even if you take the view that a team has to draw at some point! Now should you get lucky and get 6 or 7 draws in a weekend then the profit is certainly there, but on statistics I don't think this is one to follow in the long term.
Tuesday, 21 June 2011
Lessons Learnt and Some Interesting Statistics
Whilst we are in the close season we have a good chance to analyse what has gone before us and we can start to make plans for our betting strategies for next season. Of course any statistics that have gone before us won't necessarily reoccur next season however they can act as a guide for us. Finding trends and finding ways to win is all important for increasing our bank balance through the season ahead.
Lets take the Goals Crazy (or Goals Galore) bet - here we need both teams to score to collect on the bet. Normally you will see a price of odds on for this up to evens and in some exceptional circumstances odds against. For arguments sake lets assume the average price is 4/5. So for a £10 stake you will collect £8 + your £10 stake each time this occurs. In the case of Blackpool at home last season this happened in 94.7% of games ie 18 of the 19 home games played by Blackpool. So you would have a profit of £144 had you placed the same bet each time Blackpool played at home. For West Brom this was 78.9% of the time (or 15 out of 19 games) again giving a healthy profit on the season. The best returns for the other Leagues for the past season ranked in the 70% arena so nothing near what Blackpool achieved. Indeed looking at the trending we see that it wasn't until April that Blackpool finally returned a game where both teams didn't score, by then the profit would be good and Blackpool could be forgiven for letting you down on the one occasion!
Another bet that was used quite a lot last season by myself and others commentating around me was for over and under 2.5 goals. There was a view that teams such as Crewe would produce games with over 2.5 goals. The reality however was very different, infact in their 46 games Crewes games only produced over 2.5 goals in 26 of the 46 games a return of 56.5%, Crewe did however manage 91 goals and conceded 56 which is on average above 2.5 however its actuals we need not averages.
When betting on over and under last season the team to follow was Peterborough, they managed over 2.5 goals on 22 out of 23 games which is quite a remarkable feat! Again if you assume a guide price of say 4/5 it gives you a profit around the £170 mark, that doubled with Blackpools goal crazy and all of a sudden we are looking at some nice returns from just 2 teams.
In the premiership we saw Manchester United return 18 wins out of 19, albeit Manchester United will have been very short for many of those fixtures so the returns would have been small, however to have a team to add to a treble to bump the returns up is never a bad thing to have in your pocket!
Looking back through the records its hard to find anything coming close to what Blackpool and Peterborough achieved last season so finding the right team to follow will be very hard next season.
As I find more interesting stats i will post there here for you as we move closer to the August 2011 kickoff.
As a foot note I hear that Porto are about to start their search for a new manager as Andre Villas-Boas has resigned and is currently in London talking to Chelsea. Once that move is completed I will do my review of the Premiership as all of the title contenders will by then have their managers in place. If Andre does take over at Stamford Bridge he will become the youngest manager in the Premier League at aged 33! Quite a remarkable move I think!
Lets take the Goals Crazy (or Goals Galore) bet - here we need both teams to score to collect on the bet. Normally you will see a price of odds on for this up to evens and in some exceptional circumstances odds against. For arguments sake lets assume the average price is 4/5. So for a £10 stake you will collect £8 + your £10 stake each time this occurs. In the case of Blackpool at home last season this happened in 94.7% of games ie 18 of the 19 home games played by Blackpool. So you would have a profit of £144 had you placed the same bet each time Blackpool played at home. For West Brom this was 78.9% of the time (or 15 out of 19 games) again giving a healthy profit on the season. The best returns for the other Leagues for the past season ranked in the 70% arena so nothing near what Blackpool achieved. Indeed looking at the trending we see that it wasn't until April that Blackpool finally returned a game where both teams didn't score, by then the profit would be good and Blackpool could be forgiven for letting you down on the one occasion!
Another bet that was used quite a lot last season by myself and others commentating around me was for over and under 2.5 goals. There was a view that teams such as Crewe would produce games with over 2.5 goals. The reality however was very different, infact in their 46 games Crewes games only produced over 2.5 goals in 26 of the 46 games a return of 56.5%, Crewe did however manage 91 goals and conceded 56 which is on average above 2.5 however its actuals we need not averages.
When betting on over and under last season the team to follow was Peterborough, they managed over 2.5 goals on 22 out of 23 games which is quite a remarkable feat! Again if you assume a guide price of say 4/5 it gives you a profit around the £170 mark, that doubled with Blackpools goal crazy and all of a sudden we are looking at some nice returns from just 2 teams.
In the premiership we saw Manchester United return 18 wins out of 19, albeit Manchester United will have been very short for many of those fixtures so the returns would have been small, however to have a team to add to a treble to bump the returns up is never a bad thing to have in your pocket!
Looking back through the records its hard to find anything coming close to what Blackpool and Peterborough achieved last season so finding the right team to follow will be very hard next season.
As I find more interesting stats i will post there here for you as we move closer to the August 2011 kickoff.
As a foot note I hear that Porto are about to start their search for a new manager as Andre Villas-Boas has resigned and is currently in London talking to Chelsea. Once that move is completed I will do my review of the Premiership as all of the title contenders will by then have their managers in place. If Andre does take over at Stamford Bridge he will become the youngest manager in the Premier League at aged 33! Quite a remarkable move I think!
Friday, 6 May 2011
Final weekend for the English League
As we approach the end of the football season (this weekend being the end for the regular season in the football league) it’s time to reflect on the experiment that was the reason for the blog!
First up we had to move sites due to the amount of traffic we had around the New Year causing our hosts to want to charge us for that traffic!
At the turn of the year I blogged my end of season predictions 18/1 for Man United to win the Premiership, QPR to win the Championship, Brighton to win League 1 and Chesterfield to win League 2. That looks like coming in pending the league issues surrounding QPR. Hopefully it will payout, come the end of next week when Man United collect their 19th Premiership.
On the 3rd of December I suggested taking the 9/2 on Plymouth to be relegated. Due to their 10 point deduction in February this prediction promptly paid out last week. Hopefully Plymouth can find a new owner sooner rather than later and hopefully this time next year we will be talking about promotion?
So I had 2 good long range predictions come good (pending QPR), on the weekly front I had mixed fortunes, I believe I had 4 out of 4 on 2 occasions this season which is a bit disappointing, other bets paid on 2 out of 4 and 3 out of 4 meaning I have pretty much broken even on the weekend bets. I don’t think that’s overly impressive but equally it’s been a lot of fun and an interesting test. Clearly if Man United win the Premiership and QPR are given a reprieve then it will certainly be a winning season.
So to this weekends selections start in the Championship with relegated Scunthorpe United. Expect to see Scunthorpe near the top of League 1 next season, they entertain Portsmouth who have done well after a poor start to the season. I think both teams will sign off with a goal so will jump on the 4/6 for both teams to score. Its a meaningless game for both so I expect this to be open and full of action.
2 other teams that have nothing to play for are Leicester and Ipswich, they meet after both flattering to deceive a month or so ago when they were being tipped for possible playoff contention. Again I cannot pick a winner but do expect both to show their defensive issues and concede. In 68% of games this season Leicester have scored and conceded at home and on Ipswich they have scored and conceded on 54.5% of games. At 3 / 4 this is my second selection.
Everything is pretty much sorted in League 1 except for Dagenham and Walsall fans. I take Dagenham to go down as they are away at playoff side Peterborough. In mid table we find Carlisle, they have won 9 at home this season and entertain Yeovil. Another lesson for the season was the advice of my learned friend who told me back home teams again teams travelling long distances! I will take this advice and go for Carlisle to beat Yeovil! Carlisle are available at Evens.
Finally in League 2 I am looking at Stevenage at home to Bury. Bury could win the League if they win and Chesterfield lose at home to Gillingham. However, Stevenage can guarantee a playoff slot if they beat Bury. If Gillingham get a better result that Stevenage then they would be in the playoffs so it’s all rather tight! I expect Stevenage to beat Bury and take a playoff slot, I’m also hoping Torquay get something at Rotherham so that they also make the playoffs! Its Stevenage at 11/10 for me!
My Yankee this week will pay £59 and the accumulator would pay £122.50.
Finally well done to Rochdale, they have had a fine first season in League 1! They won some good away games at long prices for me so it’s why I pick them out!
Check out details for next season here
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
First up we had to move sites due to the amount of traffic we had around the New Year causing our hosts to want to charge us for that traffic!
At the turn of the year I blogged my end of season predictions 18/1 for Man United to win the Premiership, QPR to win the Championship, Brighton to win League 1 and Chesterfield to win League 2. That looks like coming in pending the league issues surrounding QPR. Hopefully it will payout, come the end of next week when Man United collect their 19th Premiership.
On the 3rd of December I suggested taking the 9/2 on Plymouth to be relegated. Due to their 10 point deduction in February this prediction promptly paid out last week. Hopefully Plymouth can find a new owner sooner rather than later and hopefully this time next year we will be talking about promotion?
So I had 2 good long range predictions come good (pending QPR), on the weekly front I had mixed fortunes, I believe I had 4 out of 4 on 2 occasions this season which is a bit disappointing, other bets paid on 2 out of 4 and 3 out of 4 meaning I have pretty much broken even on the weekend bets. I don’t think that’s overly impressive but equally it’s been a lot of fun and an interesting test. Clearly if Man United win the Premiership and QPR are given a reprieve then it will certainly be a winning season.
So to this weekends selections start in the Championship with relegated Scunthorpe United. Expect to see Scunthorpe near the top of League 1 next season, they entertain Portsmouth who have done well after a poor start to the season. I think both teams will sign off with a goal so will jump on the 4/6 for both teams to score. Its a meaningless game for both so I expect this to be open and full of action.
2 other teams that have nothing to play for are Leicester and Ipswich, they meet after both flattering to deceive a month or so ago when they were being tipped for possible playoff contention. Again I cannot pick a winner but do expect both to show their defensive issues and concede. In 68% of games this season Leicester have scored and conceded at home and on Ipswich they have scored and conceded on 54.5% of games. At 3 / 4 this is my second selection.
Everything is pretty much sorted in League 1 except for Dagenham and Walsall fans. I take Dagenham to go down as they are away at playoff side Peterborough. In mid table we find Carlisle, they have won 9 at home this season and entertain Yeovil. Another lesson for the season was the advice of my learned friend who told me back home teams again teams travelling long distances! I will take this advice and go for Carlisle to beat Yeovil! Carlisle are available at Evens.
Finally in League 2 I am looking at Stevenage at home to Bury. Bury could win the League if they win and Chesterfield lose at home to Gillingham. However, Stevenage can guarantee a playoff slot if they beat Bury. If Gillingham get a better result that Stevenage then they would be in the playoffs so it’s all rather tight! I expect Stevenage to beat Bury and take a playoff slot, I’m also hoping Torquay get something at Rotherham so that they also make the playoffs! Its Stevenage at 11/10 for me!
My Yankee this week will pay £59 and the accumulator would pay £122.50.
Finally well done to Rochdale, they have had a fine first season in League 1! They won some good away games at long prices for me so it’s why I pick them out!
Check out details for next season here
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
Friday, 15 April 2011
Make or Break Time For Many Clubs
We have reached that point in the season when its make or break time for many. A defeat could mathematically rule teams out of the promotion or play off fight, a win could prounce themselves as the late challengers. At the foot of the tables it the same, a defeat could end hopes of survival, a win couls set up a nerve wrecking end to the season.
The leagues are almost wrapped up now, Man United seem set for another Premier League crown, QPR look likely winners of the Championship. The first team to be promoted this season are Brighton, again they look solid to take the League 1 crown and Chesterfield sit handily in League 2. I can confirm that those 4 teams were available as an accumulator of 18/1 on New Years day so I'm pretty hopeful of collecting on that bet!
I am currently in the process of building a stats database, hopefully it will be perfected for the start of next season, it allows me to analyse all league matches since 2002/03 for all 4 leagues. It provides a mass of stats at the touch of a button so I can see current form, head to head form, goals scored for that all important goal crazy bet!
Quickly looking at the Stats I see that Burton are in real danger now of going down from League 2. They have lost their last 4 games and drew the other of 5 away 0-0 at Stockport! This shows no form at all. At home things aren't much better, 1 win and 2 draws in 5 including that 1-5 defeat to Barnet a couple of weeks ago. Barnet themselves have managed 2 away wins in 5 and drawn 1 and at home they have won 2 and drawn 2, they also played teams such as Crewe, Chesterfield and Lincoln without defeat. Burton are available at 9/4 to go down, in a 2 horse race where Burton only have 1 game in hand is a very interesting proposition. Barnet were galvanised by Martin Allen for a couple of weeks but he has since moved on to Notts County. I might bet half a stake on Burton to go down at that price.
In League 1 its almost certain that Plymouth will be leaving, hopefully as a relegated club and not one that is in liquidation. I understand that Peter Risdale is on Talksport this morning so that will make an interesting listen. It seems the bookies feel that Swindon and Bristol Rovers will also fall down a league leaving 1 place left to fight for with Notts County, Dagenham & Redbridge and Walsall the likely 3 teams attempting to avoid that position. Walsall are favourites to drop of those 3, althogh Notts County occupy the slot at present but have recently brought in the fabled Martin Allen to sort them out! It could be too late and at 6/5 maybe a double with Burton is a possible bet!
So to the weekend selections, I had some restbite last week with a second in the Grand National but I have nothing to back me up thyis week so hopefully the new stats application will start to payback the hours I have sunk into it!
First into the hotseat this week are Charlton and Huddersfield. Charlton were recharged under Chris Powell earlier in the season but things have gon a bit flat, they have fallen out of contention for a playoff birth and find themselves stranded in mid table. Their home form is not great although they did win last timeo ut against Orient 3-1 which eneded a run of 5 games at home without a win. Huddersfield on the other hand are unbeaten away in tehir last 10 games a run that stretches back to defeat at Southampton in December. Huddersfield lie in 3rd place on goal difference to second placed Southampton. I always feel at this time of the year its better to bet on the teams with something to play for rather than the ones with nothing to look forward to other than the summer break!
Huddersfield to win 5/4.
Staying in League 1 we have surprise package Rochdale. Ever since Rochdale won away at Southampton back at the start of the season I have been watching them carefully. This week they beat Southampton at home at a price of 11/4 which was most welcome, and now have a shot at the play offs. They are at home to Cup Finalists Brentford, another team with little hope of bridging the gap to the play off picture. Brentford have only won 2 away games in 10 and both of those wins came at clubs stranded in the middle of the league. Rochdale have won 3 of their last 4, drawing the other 2-2 with high flyers Brighton. Rochdale have had a great run in their first season in League 1 and hopefully they can go on and get a play off slot.
4/5 Rochdale home win.
In the Championship Leeds welcome Watford to Elland Road. Watford were play off contenders for some of the season but have slipped south in recent weeks. Leeds have been on the edge of things for most of the season and currently occupy the last slot, a position they will be keen not to give up. Leeds are high scorers at home, they drew 0-0 with Ipswich recently but also had wins of 4-1 and 5-2 and draws of 2-2 and 3-3 to go with the 0-0! Watford have won once away in 5, losing the last 2 and drawing the others 1-1. I think its a day for Leeds to push on to the play offs so its Leeds to win
4/6 Leeds.
Finally in League 2 Torquay play Port Vale. Torquay are pushing hard for a play off spot and have won their last 4 games, before that they drew with Rotherham. In that time they have only conceded 1 goal. Port Vale however have lost their last 2 away games to 0 and at home have only won once in 5. So Port Vale, another team that were looking likely promotion candidates are slowly slipping to a position of neither up nor down!
5/6 for Torquay to keep the pressure on at the top of the play off picture.
Some other interesting options for the weekend - Scunthorpe won at home to QPR last week (against my bet) at odds of 6/1. This week they go to Crystal Palace, Scunthorpe have only scored once in 10 away games losing them all! I was tempted by Scunthorpe but at 100/30 the price was a bit short for me!
In the Premiership Birmingham play Sunderland. The Black Cats were once looking for a Europa Cup place but since selling Darren Bent haven't had anything to cheer! Sunderland havent won since beating Blackppol away on 22 January! They have to break that run at some point and at 11/4 it might be tomorrow!
The yankee pays £60 and the accumulator will pay £123 or thereabouts!
check out details for next season here
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
The leagues are almost wrapped up now, Man United seem set for another Premier League crown, QPR look likely winners of the Championship. The first team to be promoted this season are Brighton, again they look solid to take the League 1 crown and Chesterfield sit handily in League 2. I can confirm that those 4 teams were available as an accumulator of 18/1 on New Years day so I'm pretty hopeful of collecting on that bet!
I am currently in the process of building a stats database, hopefully it will be perfected for the start of next season, it allows me to analyse all league matches since 2002/03 for all 4 leagues. It provides a mass of stats at the touch of a button so I can see current form, head to head form, goals scored for that all important goal crazy bet!
Quickly looking at the Stats I see that Burton are in real danger now of going down from League 2. They have lost their last 4 games and drew the other of 5 away 0-0 at Stockport! This shows no form at all. At home things aren't much better, 1 win and 2 draws in 5 including that 1-5 defeat to Barnet a couple of weeks ago. Barnet themselves have managed 2 away wins in 5 and drawn 1 and at home they have won 2 and drawn 2, they also played teams such as Crewe, Chesterfield and Lincoln without defeat. Burton are available at 9/4 to go down, in a 2 horse race where Burton only have 1 game in hand is a very interesting proposition. Barnet were galvanised by Martin Allen for a couple of weeks but he has since moved on to Notts County. I might bet half a stake on Burton to go down at that price.
In League 1 its almost certain that Plymouth will be leaving, hopefully as a relegated club and not one that is in liquidation. I understand that Peter Risdale is on Talksport this morning so that will make an interesting listen. It seems the bookies feel that Swindon and Bristol Rovers will also fall down a league leaving 1 place left to fight for with Notts County, Dagenham & Redbridge and Walsall the likely 3 teams attempting to avoid that position. Walsall are favourites to drop of those 3, althogh Notts County occupy the slot at present but have recently brought in the fabled Martin Allen to sort them out! It could be too late and at 6/5 maybe a double with Burton is a possible bet!
So to the weekend selections, I had some restbite last week with a second in the Grand National but I have nothing to back me up thyis week so hopefully the new stats application will start to payback the hours I have sunk into it!
First into the hotseat this week are Charlton and Huddersfield. Charlton were recharged under Chris Powell earlier in the season but things have gon a bit flat, they have fallen out of contention for a playoff birth and find themselves stranded in mid table. Their home form is not great although they did win last timeo ut against Orient 3-1 which eneded a run of 5 games at home without a win. Huddersfield on the other hand are unbeaten away in tehir last 10 games a run that stretches back to defeat at Southampton in December. Huddersfield lie in 3rd place on goal difference to second placed Southampton. I always feel at this time of the year its better to bet on the teams with something to play for rather than the ones with nothing to look forward to other than the summer break!
Huddersfield to win 5/4.
Staying in League 1 we have surprise package Rochdale. Ever since Rochdale won away at Southampton back at the start of the season I have been watching them carefully. This week they beat Southampton at home at a price of 11/4 which was most welcome, and now have a shot at the play offs. They are at home to Cup Finalists Brentford, another team with little hope of bridging the gap to the play off picture. Brentford have only won 2 away games in 10 and both of those wins came at clubs stranded in the middle of the league. Rochdale have won 3 of their last 4, drawing the other 2-2 with high flyers Brighton. Rochdale have had a great run in their first season in League 1 and hopefully they can go on and get a play off slot.
4/5 Rochdale home win.
In the Championship Leeds welcome Watford to Elland Road. Watford were play off contenders for some of the season but have slipped south in recent weeks. Leeds have been on the edge of things for most of the season and currently occupy the last slot, a position they will be keen not to give up. Leeds are high scorers at home, they drew 0-0 with Ipswich recently but also had wins of 4-1 and 5-2 and draws of 2-2 and 3-3 to go with the 0-0! Watford have won once away in 5, losing the last 2 and drawing the others 1-1. I think its a day for Leeds to push on to the play offs so its Leeds to win
4/6 Leeds.
Finally in League 2 Torquay play Port Vale. Torquay are pushing hard for a play off spot and have won their last 4 games, before that they drew with Rotherham. In that time they have only conceded 1 goal. Port Vale however have lost their last 2 away games to 0 and at home have only won once in 5. So Port Vale, another team that were looking likely promotion candidates are slowly slipping to a position of neither up nor down!
5/6 for Torquay to keep the pressure on at the top of the play off picture.
Some other interesting options for the weekend - Scunthorpe won at home to QPR last week (against my bet) at odds of 6/1. This week they go to Crystal Palace, Scunthorpe have only scored once in 10 away games losing them all! I was tempted by Scunthorpe but at 100/30 the price was a bit short for me!
In the Premiership Birmingham play Sunderland. The Black Cats were once looking for a Europa Cup place but since selling Darren Bent haven't had anything to cheer! Sunderland havent won since beating Blackppol away on 22 January! They have to break that run at some point and at 11/4 it might be tomorrow!
The yankee pays £60 and the accumulator will pay £123 or thereabouts!
check out details for next season here
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
Friday, 8 April 2011
So its all about the language we use!
I wonder who got the most out of the week gone by. The FA for charging Rooney for swearing down a tv camera, Rooney for swearing down a tv camera or the papers for reporting on the whole thing. My view? he shouldn't have done it, he did do it, someone will do it again and as long as they get charged as well I will be happy. I don't as I have said in the past think the football world has any respect for the paying public and this proves my point. Its not ok to do what he did, his manager and his club back Rooney and the FA did what they could but its too little and its too late.
Tomorrow sees the annual renewal of the Grand National. Last year we saw the greatest jockey AP McCoy win the race for the first time, it was interesting from a betting standpoint as his mount was backed down from 20-1 to 10-1 at the off! Some gamble and it paid off! This year he goes for an amazing double, the like of which we haven't seen since Red Rum. Again he has been backed down from 16-1 to 10-1 and is likely to go off as the single figured favourite once the housewives tuck into it tomorrow! he has a big chance and will have some of my money riding with him!
To the football for this week, rather than look at the prices I'm purely looking at who I think will win and not be put off by odds. Its a change in tactic to see whether I get unduly influenced by price. I'm also picking one game from each league.
Starting in the premiership we have Blackburn and Birmingham. 2 teams fighting at the wrong end of the table, Birmingham have the Carling Cup safely tucked away but need to get some points to retain their premiership status. I don't like what is happening at Blackburn and still feel they could go down, they lost at Birmingham early in the season but alot has changed since then. Blackburn have drawn their last 2 games, the 0-0 at Arsenal will be seen as a point gained, I expect this to be close again and I think the draw is the most sensible course of action.
Blackburn Vs Birmingham - Draw
On to the Championship where run away leaders QPR seem to just keep on winning!! Its top playing away at bottom (Scunthorpe Vs QPR) and I can only see one result. Its QPR all the way for me and soon they will be celebrating promotion. Scunthorpe have not won since the 5th March and havent even scored since the 8 March. QPR haven't lost since the 8th March and haven't let a goal in over the past 2 games.
QPR to win away for me.
In League 1 we have a number of big games at both ends of the table. At the bottom Plymouth are at home to Walsall, its a long way to survival for Plymouth now but a win against Walsall will keep the locals dreaming of a miracle. Walsall haven't won away since they beat Carlisle in February, Plymouth havn't won at home since 8th March! Its a must win for both teams so I see it being an open game. I expect both teams to score but cannot suggest what the result might be! I'll go goal crazy on this game. Good luck to Plymouth I hope they get sorted!
Goal Crazy Plymouth Vs Walsall
Finally in the League 2 we have Bradford and Torquay. Bradford have changed their manager recently and Torquay are kicking on to try and get a play off place. This game will once again produce goals and I see both teams scoring. Both teams kept a clean sheet last time out and rarely at this level do teams constantly keep clean sheets.
Goal crazy Bardford vs Torquay
the £1 Yankee pays £72!
Enjoy the weekend and the Grand National!
check out details for next season
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
Tomorrow sees the annual renewal of the Grand National. Last year we saw the greatest jockey AP McCoy win the race for the first time, it was interesting from a betting standpoint as his mount was backed down from 20-1 to 10-1 at the off! Some gamble and it paid off! This year he goes for an amazing double, the like of which we haven't seen since Red Rum. Again he has been backed down from 16-1 to 10-1 and is likely to go off as the single figured favourite once the housewives tuck into it tomorrow! he has a big chance and will have some of my money riding with him!
To the football for this week, rather than look at the prices I'm purely looking at who I think will win and not be put off by odds. Its a change in tactic to see whether I get unduly influenced by price. I'm also picking one game from each league.
Starting in the premiership we have Blackburn and Birmingham. 2 teams fighting at the wrong end of the table, Birmingham have the Carling Cup safely tucked away but need to get some points to retain their premiership status. I don't like what is happening at Blackburn and still feel they could go down, they lost at Birmingham early in the season but alot has changed since then. Blackburn have drawn their last 2 games, the 0-0 at Arsenal will be seen as a point gained, I expect this to be close again and I think the draw is the most sensible course of action.
Blackburn Vs Birmingham - Draw
On to the Championship where run away leaders QPR seem to just keep on winning!! Its top playing away at bottom (Scunthorpe Vs QPR) and I can only see one result. Its QPR all the way for me and soon they will be celebrating promotion. Scunthorpe have not won since the 5th March and havent even scored since the 8 March. QPR haven't lost since the 8th March and haven't let a goal in over the past 2 games.
QPR to win away for me.
In League 1 we have a number of big games at both ends of the table. At the bottom Plymouth are at home to Walsall, its a long way to survival for Plymouth now but a win against Walsall will keep the locals dreaming of a miracle. Walsall haven't won away since they beat Carlisle in February, Plymouth havn't won at home since 8th March! Its a must win for both teams so I see it being an open game. I expect both teams to score but cannot suggest what the result might be! I'll go goal crazy on this game. Good luck to Plymouth I hope they get sorted!
Goal Crazy Plymouth Vs Walsall
Finally in the League 2 we have Bradford and Torquay. Bradford have changed their manager recently and Torquay are kicking on to try and get a play off place. This game will once again produce goals and I see both teams scoring. Both teams kept a clean sheet last time out and rarely at this level do teams constantly keep clean sheets.
Goal crazy Bardford vs Torquay
the £1 Yankee pays £72!
Enjoy the weekend and the Grand National!
check out details for next season
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)