Tuesday, 5 July 2011

How do relegated Championship teams start in League 1

In recent years the profile of a relegated team from the Championship has changed. It seemed to be that the relegated teams were either yoyo teams that were too good for League 1 but not good enough for the championship or teams fighting above their weight for a season or 2. However in recent times the championship teams being relegated have been ex Premiership teams that have fallen from grace, usually due to bad financial management at the club. Leicester, Leeds, Man City, Forest, Southampton, Charlton and Norwich all match this profile.

The data is taken from the past 7 seasons of League 1.

This season we saw Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe relegated. Scunthorpe could be seen as the yoyo side whereas Sheffield United are ex Premiership and were in the playoffs for promotion recently and Preston generally were a top half side for many years.

The teams relegated in 09/10 (Plymouth, Peterborough and Sheffield Weds) all started with wins the following season. This was the first time all 3 relegated teams have started with a win. Interestingly 2 of them lost the second game and the other had a draw. Looking at the other teams relegated over the years there doesn't seem to be a particular trend or pattern. Leeds and Brighton both won their opening 2 games, the only 2 to achieve this is in the years I was reviewing.

We have see 14 wins, 14 defeats, 14 draws in the opening 2 fixtures for the past 7 years! So given this stat i don't think finding easy bets in League 1 on relegated teams is going to be possible!

However teams playing at home on opening day have only lost twice, the latest being Norwich who were beaten 7-1 at home by Colchester, but ended up winning the League that season!

Preston are the only team at home and indeed they are home to Colchester! Preston are clear favourites to win but if you fancy a repeat of the Norwich result Colchester are a nice price!

I will be doing a review of promoted teams to the championship next, hopefully that will give some better trends to follow.

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