Looking back on yesterday I was not surprised to see the demise of Spain. Last week I wrote about the fact I didn't feel Spain would be interested this time around or indeed get out of the group and so it proved. They were not a patch of the team that won the last World Cup or the Euro Championships. Chile will now play Holland to see who wins the Group, that should be a very interesting game as the team finishing second in this Group could face Brazil in the round of 16.
Equally unimpressive were Brazil against Mexico. They very much seem to be a 1 man team and if I was part of the Brazil setup I would be very worried about playing Chile next! The dutch did their best to throw away a perfect start against Australia but ultimately class told against the lowest ranked team in the competition to walk away with a slim victory.
For me Germany are the stand out team so far, Argentina have yet to kick into gear and Chile have been superb. Also I suggested recently that Ronaldo wasn't 100% fit and so it proved yesterday when he limped out of training and could be missing for the rest of the tournament, that being the case I think that cements Portugals failure at this tournament.
Today sees England take on Uruguay, so much has been said about Rooney this week, will he won't he play. If he plays behind Sturridge I think we will win, Suarez seems to be a certain starter although there have to be questions over his fitness as well. Diego Costa and Ronaldo both came here with injury doubts and neither player has been at the races, the same I think will be said of Suarez after tonights game. Its desperation time for Uruguay knowing that defeat will pretty much end their tournament.
I take England (11/10) to win this one and will also take a punt on 2-0 (17/2). England are not big scorers in World Cup games so can't see the margin being any bigger, however they are full of confidence despite the set back to Italy.
In the early game Columbia play Ivory Coast, the African nations have been poor during this World Cup shown again last night my Croatians demolition of Cameroon. The South American teams seem to be very strong, as such I can only see one result from this game and that is a Columbia win (23/10).
In the late game Japan play Greece. Greece were very poor against Columbia and I cannot see that changing against Japan. Japan despite losing to Ivory Coast did put up a good show and I can see this ending in a scoring draw.
One last thing! You know things are bad for the Spain Manager when you see that last night he came out of the stadium to board the bus and tried to get onto the Chile bus! How times change!!!!!
Good luck with your betting today.
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Tuesday, 17 June 2014
Brazil World Cup 2014 - Group H kickoff
Just a quick post today. Yesterday didn't go to plan with both African sides failing to win but Germany pulled off a great win against Portugal and look good for a long run in the tournament.
Nigeria were very poor as Iran did a great job in keeping them out with very few scares during the game. I didn't see the USA game but it seems I have under estimated the USA team!
Today sees the start of Group H, I expect like most people to see Belgium beat Algeria and Russia be too strong for South Korea. We also have Brazil playing Mexico.
Brazil did ok last week against Croatia and expect them to be improved tonight against Mexico. I expect Neymar to score again as he is the talisman of the team.
So I will go with Belgium,Brazil and Russia no surprise there!
As seems to be the trend for strikers to score I will go with Lukaku and Neymar to score first for their respective countries.
Good luck tonight!
Monday, 16 June 2014
Brazil World Cup - Group F and Group G review
Last night Argentina kicked off their tournament with a 2-1 win over Bosnia. I went with Aguero to score first but the master Messi landed to first scorer odds! Yet again another front line goal scorer bagging the goal for the country! I can;t complain as I had Benzema to score first for France and then bet again doubling my stake on Benzema to score again but had the wait for the third goal in Frances 3-0 win as the second goal was rightly judged as being an own goal! Celebration turned to concern until the frenchman put things right with a great shot later in the second half.
Tonight Germany take on Ronaldo (sorry Portugal). Portugal are only at these finals because Ronaldo dismantled Sweden in the play offs so they cannot be considered true champion material. They were in Spains qualification group but as we saw Spain are not the force they once were.
Germany on the other hand come here with a strong shout as they always seem to at the world cup! The German team seem to have been keeping themselves to themselves and will know what to do against Portugal tonight. Portugal haven't beaten Germany since the 2000 Euro Championships and since then they have lost 3 times the most recent being in the 2012 Euros with Germany winning 1-0.
I cannot see any way that Germany will lose this, I don't expect Ronaldo to be fully fit despite news reports today that he is and will go with Germany at 19/20 to win this one.
Next up Iran play Nigeria. Nigeria won their qualification group with 12 points the next team had 7 as they won 3 and drew 3 games and then beat Ethiopia 4-1 in a play off. Iran qualified top of their group ahead of South Korea so could be considered one of the stronger sides from The Asia groups. However so far Australia and Japan have both lost. From the African continent we have seen Ivory Coast win and Cameroon lose. I go with Nigeria to win this one as well by a couple of goals.
Finally Ghana face USA. 4 years ago like a lot of teams before and after them Ghana were cheated by Luis Suarez. His handball stopped a certain goal and the resulting penalty was missed. Its all history now but shows how Ghana have come on as a team over the years. Had they won they would have been the first African side to make the semi finals. Now the last time that nearly happened was in 1990 when Cameroon lost to England, and since then Cameroon have been going in the wrong direction.
At the start of the tournament I backed USA to score the least number of goals, firstly because I don't think they are in the same class as the rest of the teams in their group (Germany and Portugal being the others) and secondly they were a huge 12/1!
I'm therefore a fan of Ghana and hope they will repay my faith in them tonight!
Now then..... 188Bet tell me if I open an account with them and bet a treble if 2 win they will refund my stake with a free bet! Now I see this as a good way to combine my selections today so will be doing exactly that!
Good luck with your selections today.m
Sunday, 15 June 2014
Brazil World Cup - The Wonders of in play betting
It would seem now that the Swiss have come from behind we should look at the world that is in play betting. The most amazing fact at this world cup so far is this.
In 5 games the team scoring first have gone on to lose the game. In the Swiss game the minute Ecuador scored Switzerland were 9/2 to win the game having started the game at 7/5. I took this price and am glad I did however at half time Ray Winston (Bet365) was offering me 11/2 on the Swiss.
Brazil, Holland, Costa Rica, Ivory Coast and Switzerland have all conceded first but won their game.
Therefore in 71% of games where both teams have scored the team conceding first has won, this could be a good indicator for in play betting followers.
2 games have finished to nil so far so are not included in these stats.
Of the 9 games 8 have finished with over 2.5 goals, this is another interesting fact and shows that bettering over 2.5 goals is a useful bet in this tournament so far. I think the second round of games will be the same but the 3rd round of games could be a bit more cagey.
Games won by the team conceding first when both teams score in the game.
In 5 games the team scoring first have gone on to lose the game. In the Swiss game the minute Ecuador scored Switzerland were 9/2 to win the game having started the game at 7/5. I took this price and am glad I did however at half time Ray Winston (Bet365) was offering me 11/2 on the Swiss.
Brazil, Holland, Costa Rica, Ivory Coast and Switzerland have all conceded first but won their game.
Therefore in 71% of games where both teams have scored the team conceding first has won, this could be a good indicator for in play betting followers.
2 games have finished to nil so far so are not included in these stats.
Of the 9 games 8 have finished with over 2.5 goals, this is another interesting fact and shows that bettering over 2.5 goals is a useful bet in this tournament so far. I think the second round of games will be the same but the 3rd round of games could be a bit more cagey.
Games won by the team conceding first when both teams score in the game.
Brazil World Cup - Group E first games
Well yesterday was not the best day for my bets with my first 3 bets going down. However I managed to recover the loses with a double bet on Ivory Coast leaving me up 6 points on the day. Not great but still in positive territory.
My view on Uruguay was simply they are overrated, they struggled to get through their qualification Group and had to go via the play offs and I didn't really see anything in the game to suggest their high FIFA ranking!
Costa Rica looked good, Joel Campbell looked very good! He is on Arsenals books although out on loan last season, will be interesting to see if he can capitalise on this game and make a name for himself at this tournament.
Following the failure of Uruguay you might have thought Group D would be wide open, little did we know Pirlo was still the master and the young English are still a bit raw. I think England are 2 world class players short and the future is bright but we need to be looking at today, and today we are not good enough. Don't get me wrong, watching Sterling and Sturridge running at the defence was great to see and must be allowed to continue. Rooney needs to be playing in the centre or not at all, playing him wide is not his game and never has been! I expect England to beat and therefore knock out Uruguay next week then it will all depend on how Costa Rica do against Italy so we can work out the permutations for the final game.
So to todays fixtures.
The first thing to note is if we purely look at qualification form most games have gone to form. Eg Uruguay might be considered a surprise to lose to Costa Rica but Uruguay came through the playoffs so are efectively the worst South American side in the tournament whereas Costa Rica finished second in the CONCACAF. It must be said the South American group is stronger but as we saw on a one game playoff anything can happen! So bearing this in mind we have Switzerland v Ecuador. England played a friendly against Ecador recently at Wembley and drew 2 each. So they can score goals but they also concede.
Switzerland didn't lose a game during qualification winning 7 drawing 3. They are the top seeds in this group so should really come out on top.
The bookies make Switzerland 6/4 fav to win with Ecuador at 21/10 i can't look further than Switzerland and consider 6/4 to be a big price. Uruguay showed yesterday that South American sides can lose and this will happen to Ecuador today.
Next up is France and Honduras, some making France the dark horses of the tournament. Honduras drew 0-0 recently in Miami against England in a game stopped for an Electrical storm, I don''t see Honduras as a threat to France however France at 1/3 are a bit too short for me to bet on. I have noticed that a lot of the main strikers are scoring for their countries in the opening games. Neymar, Van Persie, Cavani, Balotelli, Sturridge, Sanchez to name a few! Benzema is 11/4 to score first and as short as 8/11 to score any time! He played really well recently in the 8-0 win over Jamaica so I will back him to score first at 11/4.
Finally tonight we have my pick for winners, Argentina. Playing Bosnia who are appearing in the finals for the first time. The game again is set up to be a one sided affair with Argentina currently 4/11 to win the game! Once again this is too short so I will probably look at some other markets during the day and see how the other bets fair before making a punt.
Hopefully we will see some more great action and goals today!
My view on Uruguay was simply they are overrated, they struggled to get through their qualification Group and had to go via the play offs and I didn't really see anything in the game to suggest their high FIFA ranking!
Costa Rica looked good, Joel Campbell looked very good! He is on Arsenals books although out on loan last season, will be interesting to see if he can capitalise on this game and make a name for himself at this tournament.
Following the failure of Uruguay you might have thought Group D would be wide open, little did we know Pirlo was still the master and the young English are still a bit raw. I think England are 2 world class players short and the future is bright but we need to be looking at today, and today we are not good enough. Don't get me wrong, watching Sterling and Sturridge running at the defence was great to see and must be allowed to continue. Rooney needs to be playing in the centre or not at all, playing him wide is not his game and never has been! I expect England to beat and therefore knock out Uruguay next week then it will all depend on how Costa Rica do against Italy so we can work out the permutations for the final game.
So to todays fixtures.
The first thing to note is if we purely look at qualification form most games have gone to form. Eg Uruguay might be considered a surprise to lose to Costa Rica but Uruguay came through the playoffs so are efectively the worst South American side in the tournament whereas Costa Rica finished second in the CONCACAF. It must be said the South American group is stronger but as we saw on a one game playoff anything can happen! So bearing this in mind we have Switzerland v Ecuador. England played a friendly against Ecador recently at Wembley and drew 2 each. So they can score goals but they also concede.
Switzerland didn't lose a game during qualification winning 7 drawing 3. They are the top seeds in this group so should really come out on top.
The bookies make Switzerland 6/4 fav to win with Ecuador at 21/10 i can't look further than Switzerland and consider 6/4 to be a big price. Uruguay showed yesterday that South American sides can lose and this will happen to Ecuador today.
Next up is France and Honduras, some making France the dark horses of the tournament. Honduras drew 0-0 recently in Miami against England in a game stopped for an Electrical storm, I don''t see Honduras as a threat to France however France at 1/3 are a bit too short for me to bet on. I have noticed that a lot of the main strikers are scoring for their countries in the opening games. Neymar, Van Persie, Cavani, Balotelli, Sturridge, Sanchez to name a few! Benzema is 11/4 to score first and as short as 8/11 to score any time! He played really well recently in the 8-0 win over Jamaica so I will back him to score first at 11/4.
Finally tonight we have my pick for winners, Argentina. Playing Bosnia who are appearing in the finals for the first time. The game again is set up to be a one sided affair with Argentina currently 4/11 to win the game! Once again this is too short so I will probably look at some other markets during the day and see how the other bets fair before making a punt.
Hopefully we will see some more great action and goals today!
Saturday, 14 June 2014
Brazil World Cup 2014 - Group C and Group D kickoff
Today we will see the entrance of England into the World Cup! They have only won 2 or their previous 6 opening World Cup matches so hopes are high but reality could soon set in!
Last night we saw the Spanish get taken apart but a fantastic Dutch performance, I always felt that the Dutch might win but not by that margin. However first game up today is the first game from Group C - Columbia v Greece. With Chile winning a tighter encounter than the score line suggests against Australia (3-1) the South American teams have started this tournament well. I expect Columbia to carry on that trend today against a reasonable but not electrifying Greece side.
Columbia are odds on 10/11 to win the game so I will take a chance on 10/3 for the draw at half time and Columbia to win the game.
Following that game we have the opening fixture from Group D Uruguay v Costa Rica here again Uruguay are pretty unbackable at 9/20 to win the game so I expect Uruguay to come out flying and be winning at half time and full time at 21/20.
Then the big one! England against Italy, so much has already been written about this game but the stats are the stats! England 2 wins from 6 opening fixtures. In
2010 - 0-0 Algeria,
2006 - 1-0 Paraguay,
2002 - 1-1 Sweden,
1998 - 2-0 Tunisia,
1990 - 1-1 Rep of Ireland,
1986 - 0-1 Portugal
So we can't beat European sides in opening games! However I do believe this England side have the ability to win the game the question is will Roy allow them to express themselves and go for it or will he play a system not to lose the game. I'm not sure exactly what I will bet on as I will wait for the teams to be announce (for me the key is whether Wellbeck or Stirling plays) however I think it will be a low scoring game, so I can see 0-0 1-0 or 1-1, I don't think England will lose.
Good luck with your bets today, if you want to share them in the comments please do.
Friday, 13 June 2014
Spain v Holland!
What a great game to start the first full day of action. A repeat of the last world cup final - its the first time that has happened folks!
For me I think Spain are on the decline and I don't think they will win the cup this time around, indeed I have doubts that they will get out of the group! Chile are very strong and if Holland can get something from tonights game it could spell the start of the end for Spain.
They have some great attacking options but then so do the Dutch!
So what will i bet on tonight?
I really don't think Spain will win but this could end 0-0. So I'm going to bet 5pts on Holland at 19/4 and 10pts on Holland and the draw at 21/20.
Enjoy the game!
What a great game to start the first full day of action. A repeat of the last world cup final - its the first time that has happened folks!
For me I think Spain are on the decline and I don't think they will win the cup this time around, indeed I have doubts that they will get out of the group! Chile are very strong and if Holland can get something from tonights game it could spell the start of the end for Spain.
They have some great attacking options but then so do the Dutch!
So what will i bet on tonight?
I really don't think Spain will win but this could end 0-0. So I'm going to bet 5pts on Holland at 19/4 and 10pts on Holland and the draw at 21/20.
Enjoy the game!
Monday, 9 June 2014
Brazil 2014 World Cup Thoughts
Its been somewhat of a long time since my last post! But its time to get back into the swing of things.
I thought I would just have a quick look at some interesting stats around the world cup.
Brazil are currently best priced 3/1 favs with most bookmakers and with the World Cup being in Brazil no surprise there!
However you have to go back to 1998 to find a World Cup where the hosts won, that time it was France although they did not go into the tournament as favourites or even start the final as favourites against Brazil so home advantage has its benefits. Home advantage may not work too well for Brazil either as there is unrest in side the country concerning the amount of money that has been spent on the World Cup, as such it will be interesting to see how the fans react as the tournament progresses.
There is clearly a lot of talk about whether the European teams can make an impact in Brazil due to the heat, it's clearly going to be hot in some of the venues but not so hot in others. For example England will play Italy in the heat an humidity of the Amazonian city of Manaus where the temperature can get up to 30 Degrees C. However in Porte Alegre the temperature will be around 19C. France and the Netherlands will be playing here.
As such I fancy France to beat Hondurus (15 June) here and the Netherlands to beat Australia (18 June) as heat will be less of a factor.
England will play Uruguay in the Arena De Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo where the temperature should be a much more reasonable 20C. This shouldn't be too much of a problem for England and I fancy England to win this one. The big danger would have Suarez but given he has had a minor knee operation he is unlikely to be the force he has been in the Premiership this season. We will have to see how he performs against Costa Rica - assuming he even starts.
I like the look of Belgium and expect them to win their group, however should they get out of their group they will face Germany or Portugal! And should they win that the likelihood is that they would then face Argentina, given this potential route through the competition I can't consider them as winners, however the best price of 22/1 is reasonable but unrealistic to come in! I do however expect them to play Argentina but can't see them getting any further.
For me, I like the look of Argentina, they haven't won the World Cup since 1986 and Messi has never really performed on the World Cup stage to a level he would want. Given the conditions and location of this years tournament I think they will be hard to beat and fully expect them to get to the final, where in all probability they will face Brazil. Backing up Messi we have Aguaro and Higuain up front, Mascherano and Champions League Winner Angel Di Maria in midfield and Zabaleta and Demichelis Premier league winners with Man City at the back. Most of the Argentine side are based in Europe and most of the squad play for top European sides as such they are full of experience and should be considered a major threat.
4/1 is available with a lot of bookmakers however I took 9/2 earlier on this month.
History of the opening fixture.
2010 (South Africa)- South Africa 1 - 1 Mexico
2006 (Germany) - Germany 4 - 2 Cost Rica
2002 (South Korea) - France 0 - 1 Senegal
1998 (France) - Brazil 2 - 1 Scotland
1994 (USA) - Germany 1 - 0 Bolivia
1990 (Italy) - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon
The opening fixture this time around is Brazil V Croatia, the bookies give Croatia no chance at 10/1. With Brazil at 3/10 there isn't much value. We haven't seen over 2.5 goals in the opening game that often, however I thing Brazil will be keen to come out of the traps flying. If they score early I can see them scoring at least 3. Over 2.5 goals is available at Evens.
If you fancy Brazil to win rather than the 3/10 for winning the game you can get 3/4 on Brazil winning at half time and then at full time. This gives slightly better value.
If you need a new account for the world cup click here
I thought I would just have a quick look at some interesting stats around the world cup.
Brazil are currently best priced 3/1 favs with most bookmakers and with the World Cup being in Brazil no surprise there!
However you have to go back to 1998 to find a World Cup where the hosts won, that time it was France although they did not go into the tournament as favourites or even start the final as favourites against Brazil so home advantage has its benefits. Home advantage may not work too well for Brazil either as there is unrest in side the country concerning the amount of money that has been spent on the World Cup, as such it will be interesting to see how the fans react as the tournament progresses.
There is clearly a lot of talk about whether the European teams can make an impact in Brazil due to the heat, it's clearly going to be hot in some of the venues but not so hot in others. For example England will play Italy in the heat an humidity of the Amazonian city of Manaus where the temperature can get up to 30 Degrees C. However in Porte Alegre the temperature will be around 19C. France and the Netherlands will be playing here.
As such I fancy France to beat Hondurus (15 June) here and the Netherlands to beat Australia (18 June) as heat will be less of a factor.
England will play Uruguay in the Arena De Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo where the temperature should be a much more reasonable 20C. This shouldn't be too much of a problem for England and I fancy England to win this one. The big danger would have Suarez but given he has had a minor knee operation he is unlikely to be the force he has been in the Premiership this season. We will have to see how he performs against Costa Rica - assuming he even starts.
I like the look of Belgium and expect them to win their group, however should they get out of their group they will face Germany or Portugal! And should they win that the likelihood is that they would then face Argentina, given this potential route through the competition I can't consider them as winners, however the best price of 22/1 is reasonable but unrealistic to come in! I do however expect them to play Argentina but can't see them getting any further.
For me, I like the look of Argentina, they haven't won the World Cup since 1986 and Messi has never really performed on the World Cup stage to a level he would want. Given the conditions and location of this years tournament I think they will be hard to beat and fully expect them to get to the final, where in all probability they will face Brazil. Backing up Messi we have Aguaro and Higuain up front, Mascherano and Champions League Winner Angel Di Maria in midfield and Zabaleta and Demichelis Premier league winners with Man City at the back. Most of the Argentine side are based in Europe and most of the squad play for top European sides as such they are full of experience and should be considered a major threat.
4/1 is available with a lot of bookmakers however I took 9/2 earlier on this month.
History of the opening fixture.
2010 (South Africa)- South Africa 1 - 1 Mexico
2006 (Germany) - Germany 4 - 2 Cost Rica
2002 (South Korea) - France 0 - 1 Senegal
1998 (France) - Brazil 2 - 1 Scotland
1994 (USA) - Germany 1 - 0 Bolivia
1990 (Italy) - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon
The opening fixture this time around is Brazil V Croatia, the bookies give Croatia no chance at 10/1. With Brazil at 3/10 there isn't much value. We haven't seen over 2.5 goals in the opening game that often, however I thing Brazil will be keen to come out of the traps flying. If they score early I can see them scoring at least 3. Over 2.5 goals is available at Evens.
If you fancy Brazil to win rather than the 3/10 for winning the game you can get 3/4 on Brazil winning at half time and then at full time. This gives slightly better value.
If you need a new account for the world cup click here
Sunday, 9 October 2011
League 2 Review October 2011
We have now entered October so its a good time to review the season so far and look for possible league winners. Today I will be looking at League 2 where we have seen the demise of Plymouth Argyle, a heavy defeat for Crawley and the emergence of Morecambe.
At present the teams in League 2 have played 12 games, last season after 14 games Chesterfield were top and went on to win the League. Currently Southend head the field with 25 points, should they win their next 2 games they will be ahead of where Chesterfield were last season.
Its interesting to see pre season favourites Crawley Town in second place, they have had a mixed start with some good wins but also a heavy defeat at early pace setters Morecambe. Crawley have conceded 17 goals so far, which is in my view slightly high for a team priced at 11/8 to win the league! Southend have only conceded 12 goals thus far showing they are nice and tight at the back!
When looking at the past 10 seasons we can see that the winner has come from the top 6 by this stage of the season, so this means that the winner should come from one of the following teams.
Southend, Crawley, AFC Wimbledon, Shrewsbury, Oxford and Morecambe. Shrewsbury are second favourites at the moment at 7/1 with Southend at 9/1 and Oxford 10/1. AFC Wimbledon and Morecambe are seen as the outsiders of the group at 18/1 and 22/1 respectively.
At the start of the season I was looking at Southend as my team for the season and nothing has changed to affect this thought. Crawley at 11/8 are way too short and have not shown the dominance that you would expect from a team as short as that price at this stage. I have no doubts that Crawley will be promoted but not necessarily as champions.
Paul Sturrock at Southend has been here before with Plymouth, so he has the pedigree and the experience to complete the double with Southend.
I will take the 9/1 this week as I look to set up some winning bets for the end of the season.
Sunday, 18 September 2011
A bit of a catch up
Now that i'm back from holiday I will hopefully get back on top with my posts. I managed 3 results our of 4 yesterday and picked up 4 out of 4 today.
Yesterday I picked up Bournemouth away at Exeter, Bournemouth had a good away win last week and were too big at 2/1 away this weekend. A 2-0 win proved the point and i doubt we will see Bournemouth at that sort of price again for a while to lower league sides. Secondly I went for a short price home team in Southend. They were entertaining a dreadful Plynouth side that is in all sorts of bother again this season, Peter Reid has also just been sacked. This is probably a relief for Peter and I am sure he will succeed elsewhere, maybe back at Stoke working with Pulis?
My third selection was Preston away at Brentford. Preston have picked up form lately and at 15/8 were deemed reasonable value and a good win saw the bet home. Finally I had Hereford to draw at home with Gillingham. It was a game where Hereford on form hadnt done much wrong this season and Gillingham done "ok". However the 1-6 scoreline dented the bet and indded gave Gillingham their biggest away win ever!
In the premiership all of the promoted sides won on the same weekend for the first time since 2007. This was all the more interesting as only one of the teams were at home and only 1 goal was conceded by the 3 sides. I'm not sure whether this means these teams will be any more successful in avoiding the drop however after watching QPR V Newcastle on Monday night it came as no surprise as they should have won that game easily as well. I think the addition of Joey Barton and Shaun Wright Phillips is huge for QPR and should ensure that they stay up this season.
Today I invested some of my winnings on a Yankee, Spurs to win, Sunderland to win, Fulham to draw and Man U to win. My first 4/4 of the season so its been a good day!
The reason for the bet was based on Spurs resting the entire squad for the European fixture in midweek. They have had a difficult start with defeats against the Manchester clubs but showed resolved against Wolves last week. They played well today and deserved the 4-0 result. Sunderland have also had a tricky start however it was the fact that Stoke travelled to Kiev in midweek that prompted my selection. Most of the Stoke played have probably never had that sort of travel pattern before and history shows sides playing in Europe struggle on return to the league. Fulham have done ok and look like being draw specialists again, playing a Man City side that struggled in Europe suggested that Fulham might not have enough to win but should be able to get a draw which indeed they did, coming from 0-2 down to draw 2-2.
Finally Man U are the stand out side in the league so selecting them to beat Chelsea was straightforward. The Bet paid around 16/1 which made a nice addition to yesterdays 3/4.
This week we have Carling Cup action when I expect some more Premier League Teams to fall. I will review the situation and put up my selections on Monday evening.
Friday, 2 September 2011
Weekly Review
It maybe an International weekend and I may still be on holiday but the lower leagues play on all the same so its only right that I complete a review of some of the games.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.
As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.
With games of this type I like to go with the home side.
Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.
Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.
Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.
Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.
In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.
This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.
This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?
In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.
Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.
At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.
Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.
In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.
In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!
In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.
As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.
With games of this type I like to go with the home side.
Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.
Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.
Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.
Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.
In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.
This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.
This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?
In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.
Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.
At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.
Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.
In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.
In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!
In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.
Saturday, 27 August 2011
Weekend football information
As I'm currently out of the country my analysis will be short at sweet this week. I won't be betting myself however the following might be of use.
In the premiership Wolves travel to Aston Villa for the early kick off. An interesting fact is that these teams have played the same teams this season already! Wolves beating Fulham and Blackburn, Villa beating Blackburn and drawing with Fulham. The fixture between Villa and Wolves has recently gone with the away team, Wolves winning at Villa in March this year and Villa winning at Wolves late in 2010! I would be tempted by the 14/5 on offer on Wolves to pick this up again and keep their run going.
Last season Wigan only won 5 games at home and play a QPR side that now includes one J Barton signed from Newcastle. I'm not sure whether he will play on Saturday but its an interesting move by QPR! QPR won at Everton last week after being dismantled in their first home game against Bolton. I think Wigan will striggle to win home games again this season so would be looking at QPR at 2/1 or under 2.5 goals at 7/10.
I hope these little tip bits are of help for the weekend, enjoy the football and any other betting opportunities that come up this week!
In the premiership Wolves travel to Aston Villa for the early kick off. An interesting fact is that these teams have played the same teams this season already! Wolves beating Fulham and Blackburn, Villa beating Blackburn and drawing with Fulham. The fixture between Villa and Wolves has recently gone with the away team, Wolves winning at Villa in March this year and Villa winning at Wolves late in 2010! I would be tempted by the 14/5 on offer on Wolves to pick this up again and keep their run going.
Last season Wigan only won 5 games at home and play a QPR side that now includes one J Barton signed from Newcastle. I'm not sure whether he will play on Saturday but its an interesting move by QPR! QPR won at Everton last week after being dismantled in their first home game against Bolton. I think Wigan will striggle to win home games again this season so would be looking at QPR at 2/1 or under 2.5 goals at 7/10.
I hope these little tip bits are of help for the weekend, enjoy the football and any other betting opportunities that come up this week!
Monday, 22 August 2011
Man United to beat Spurs?
Having had a look at the stats for the past 10 seasons we see that Spurs have only once picked up a point at Old Trafford the home of Man United. To make matters worse for Spurs they have only scored on 3 occasions, once scoring twice but conceding 5!
They hav only crossed swords in this time in August once, in 2007 when Manchester won 1-0.
It is often the case that pundits say the best time to play Manchester United is at the start of a season! So looking at the last 10 years of home games played at Old Trafford we can see that infact Manchester United have never lost in August in the 10 seasons I have looked at! Furthermore they have only drawn on 3 occasions. Spurs for their part have not loast away since 2008 when they were beaten by Middlesborough.
In the 15 games Manchester United have played at home they have only conceded 6 goals in 5 of the games. This shows that actually Manchester United are pretty ruthless at home in August.
Both sides have picked up maximum points in their August games when playing as they are tonight since 2008 so something has to give tonight.
I understand that Modric is not in the right frame of mind to play for Spurs tonight - but I'm sure he will pick up his £40K wages anyway this week. Spurs were very impressive last week against Hearts in the Europa Cup - really it shows the class between the Scottish Premier and the English Premier, nevertheless Spurs did play well again without Modric.
Manchester United started with a 2-1 win s I suggested they might away at WBA, however they have injury doubts around Vidic, who is almost certainly out and Ferdinand who is also a serious doubt. This means that the back line for Man Utd is severely dented with Rafeal also out and the new goalie David de Gea still settling in. The average of the Man Utd back line could be 20 years. Given Spurs haven't won at Old Trafford since 1989 it means that almost all of the backline have never seen Spurs win at Old Trafford in their lifetime!
As ever Man Utd will be strong going forward and will no doubt score. I do give Spurs a glimmer of hope although all the stats suggest otherwise.
It could be a day for Spurs to get a draw as I expect Man U to concede, the question will be who plays in goal for Spurs and how interested Rooney is!
I'm going to suggest a 1-1 draw or 2-2 draw as the draw is 11/4 where as 13/2 for 1-1 and 16/1 for 2-2 is much more interesting pricewise!
I'm going to bet 1/2 my stake on these outcomes as this is more a punt that a golden opportunity as chances are Man U will win and stretch their good home form.
They hav only crossed swords in this time in August once, in 2007 when Manchester won 1-0.
It is often the case that pundits say the best time to play Manchester United is at the start of a season! So looking at the last 10 years of home games played at Old Trafford we can see that infact Manchester United have never lost in August in the 10 seasons I have looked at! Furthermore they have only drawn on 3 occasions. Spurs for their part have not loast away since 2008 when they were beaten by Middlesborough.
In the 15 games Manchester United have played at home they have only conceded 6 goals in 5 of the games. This shows that actually Manchester United are pretty ruthless at home in August.
Both sides have picked up maximum points in their August games when playing as they are tonight since 2008 so something has to give tonight.
I understand that Modric is not in the right frame of mind to play for Spurs tonight - but I'm sure he will pick up his £40K wages anyway this week. Spurs were very impressive last week against Hearts in the Europa Cup - really it shows the class between the Scottish Premier and the English Premier, nevertheless Spurs did play well again without Modric.
Manchester United started with a 2-1 win s I suggested they might away at WBA, however they have injury doubts around Vidic, who is almost certainly out and Ferdinand who is also a serious doubt. This means that the back line for Man Utd is severely dented with Rafeal also out and the new goalie David de Gea still settling in. The average of the Man Utd back line could be 20 years. Given Spurs haven't won at Old Trafford since 1989 it means that almost all of the backline have never seen Spurs win at Old Trafford in their lifetime!
As ever Man Utd will be strong going forward and will no doubt score. I do give Spurs a glimmer of hope although all the stats suggest otherwise.
It could be a day for Spurs to get a draw as I expect Man U to concede, the question will be who plays in goal for Spurs and how interested Rooney is!
I'm going to suggest a 1-1 draw or 2-2 draw as the draw is 11/4 where as 13/2 for 1-1 and 16/1 for 2-2 is much more interesting pricewise!
I'm going to bet 1/2 my stake on these outcomes as this is more a punt that a golden opportunity as chances are Man U will win and stretch their good home form.
Friday, 19 August 2011
Strange things are a happening in the football stats!
Its an amazing start to the season once again, i'm not having much luck with my yankees and the stats show this is due to the unusual winning patterns that are showing up, so many home sides not winning.
Last weekend on Manchester City won at home. In the championship only 13 home wins have been registered in the 3 rounds of games! That is astonishing!
I'm off on holiday for 2 weeks so don;t have much time for analysis this week.
I'm going to attempt another yankee, failure again will result in me reconsidering my strategy!
I'm picking home teams that have started well and should be able to kick on in the coming weeks.
Preston NE V Exeter - Preston lost on the opening day but have since bagged some much needed points, as one of the favorites for promotion this is the sort of game they should be winning.
Gillingham V Plymouth - Plymouth have not had a great start and seem to be ok for 45 minutes before fading, Gillingham look like having a good season, Plymouth need money, players and some luck in the coming weeks! Gillingham home win.
Rotherham V Barnet - Rotherham have won 3 out of 3 so far and play a Barnet team who have won lost and drawn in their opening fixtures. They have already won away but I don't see that being repeated. Rotherham home win.
Finally my tip for promotion, Southend. Southend are at home to Burton, Burton have drawn all of their games so far but I feel Southend should get the better of them and take the bacon.
I'm going with my usual 10pts which will net $50.
Last weekend on Manchester City won at home. In the championship only 13 home wins have been registered in the 3 rounds of games! That is astonishing!
I'm off on holiday for 2 weeks so don;t have much time for analysis this week.
I'm going to attempt another yankee, failure again will result in me reconsidering my strategy!
I'm picking home teams that have started well and should be able to kick on in the coming weeks.
Preston NE V Exeter - Preston lost on the opening day but have since bagged some much needed points, as one of the favorites for promotion this is the sort of game they should be winning.
Gillingham V Plymouth - Plymouth have not had a great start and seem to be ok for 45 minutes before fading, Gillingham look like having a good season, Plymouth need money, players and some luck in the coming weeks! Gillingham home win.
Rotherham V Barnet - Rotherham have won 3 out of 3 so far and play a Barnet team who have won lost and drawn in their opening fixtures. They have already won away but I don't see that being repeated. Rotherham home win.
Finally my tip for promotion, Southend. Southend are at home to Burton, Burton have drawn all of their games so far but I feel Southend should get the better of them and take the bacon.
I'm going with my usual 10pts which will net $50.
Friday, 5 August 2011
Today is the start of the new English Champioship 2011-2012
Tonight sees the start of the English Championship where Hull City will face relegated Blackpool. Last season Blackpool started well in the Premiership and for a long time it looked like they might stay up. However a dreadful away record finally took its toll and they were relegated after 1 season back to the Championship. Hull City find themselves in the Championship for a second season after they flirted with the Premiership, so both these clubs have parachute payments from the Premier League however only Hull have been spending it.
Blackpool have not spent much money and have lost the likes of DJ Campbell and Charlie Adam, these losses are key to Blackpool and will probably result in Blackpool finishing mid table this term.
Reports are rife about Blackpool players not being motivated, this can only be a bad thing for the club and I expect this to be clearly seen tonight. Holloway will want a good performance but I cannot see it happening.
Hull have a great record over Blackpool at home and I can only see 1 result, that being a home win for Hull City. Hull can be backed at 6/5 with Bluesq and Bet365.
So I'm going 10pts on the home win.
Blackpool have not spent much money and have lost the likes of DJ Campbell and Charlie Adam, these losses are key to Blackpool and will probably result in Blackpool finishing mid table this term.
Reports are rife about Blackpool players not being motivated, this can only be a bad thing for the club and I expect this to be clearly seen tonight. Holloway will want a good performance but I cannot see it happening.
Hull have a great record over Blackpool at home and I can only see 1 result, that being a home win for Hull City. Hull can be backed at 6/5 with Bluesq and Bet365.
So I'm going 10pts on the home win.
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Final Season Long Selections
I have now posted my selections for the coming season. The theory behind my selections are documented through the blog, however if you would like clarification on any of the selections let me know.
All of my prices come from Bluesq and Bet365. If you would like to set up an account and get some free bets for the season
click Here for Bluesq
click Here for Bet365
To see my selections click here
All of my prices come from Bluesq and Bet365. If you would like to set up an account and get some free bets for the season
click Here for Bluesq
click Here for Bet365
To see my selections click here
Sunday, 17 July 2011
Opening Day fixtures in English League 2
Having identified a possible strategy for the opening day of the football season I have looked at the relegated sides from League 1 last season and assessed their previous form against the teams they are playing on the opening day. To see my comments on how relegated teams get on click here
First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.
Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.
Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.
However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.
Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.
First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.
Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.
Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.
However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.
Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.
Saturday, 16 July 2011
The start of life in English League 2
When teams get relegated to the 4th tier of English football they find themselves one step away from the dreaded Conference League! The Conference League is "dreaded" because it is now overflowing with professional League teams all intent on getting out of it and back into League 2. So when a team is relegated from League 1 into League 2 I would have thought every effort would be made to get off to a fast start to retain the League status of the club. Teams playing in League 1 the previous season should in theory be stronger than many of the League 2 conterparts however the results of the opening fixtures do nothing to support this theory!
Looking at the past 7 seasons we see that the win % of teams relegated the previous season is not very good! Indeed taking the opening 2 fixtures for all of the teams relegated we see that in 27 of the fixtures we saw a draw. I find this an incredible stat as we saw 14 wins and 15 loses. So almost 50% of the opening 2 games played by relegated teams in League 2 end in a draw!
If we look at the opening day fixtures alone we see 53% of the games ended in a draw - this represents 15 games, we saw 8 wins and 5 loses inthe same selection of games.
In the 2007/08 season all 4 teams drew on the opening day. Since then we have seen a minimum of 2 games drawn on opening day with 3 games being drawn last season. Please note that some of the relegated teams played each other which slightly skews the stats.
Looking at the fixtures for the relegated teams.
Wimbledon V Bristol Rovers
Swindon V Crewe
Shrewsbury V Plymouth
Macclesfield V Dagenham & Redbridge
Its not out of the question that these 4 games could end in draws. I am tempted to do some research on these games to look for other factors and then possibly place some combination bets on draws occuring here in the attempt to pick up some early winnings at the start of the new football season.
I would need 2 results to come in to cover my bet and 3 or more would give me a healthy profit on the opening day.
I will post my research on these 4 specific games once I have completed it!
Looking at the past 7 seasons we see that the win % of teams relegated the previous season is not very good! Indeed taking the opening 2 fixtures for all of the teams relegated we see that in 27 of the fixtures we saw a draw. I find this an incredible stat as we saw 14 wins and 15 loses. So almost 50% of the opening 2 games played by relegated teams in League 2 end in a draw!
If we look at the opening day fixtures alone we see 53% of the games ended in a draw - this represents 15 games, we saw 8 wins and 5 loses inthe same selection of games.
In the 2007/08 season all 4 teams drew on the opening day. Since then we have seen a minimum of 2 games drawn on opening day with 3 games being drawn last season. Please note that some of the relegated teams played each other which slightly skews the stats.
Looking at the fixtures for the relegated teams.
Wimbledon V Bristol Rovers
Swindon V Crewe
Shrewsbury V Plymouth
Macclesfield V Dagenham & Redbridge
Its not out of the question that these 4 games could end in draws. I am tempted to do some research on these games to look for other factors and then possibly place some combination bets on draws occuring here in the attempt to pick up some early winnings at the start of the new football season.
I would need 2 results to come in to cover my bet and 3 or more would give me a healthy profit on the opening day.
I will post my research on these 4 specific games once I have completed it!
Tuesday, 12 July 2011
How do teams promoted from League 2 get on in League 1
I'm almost at the end of my review of promoted and relegated teams performances and today is the turn of the promoted sides from League 2. To clarify, 4 teams get promoted rather than the 3 up to the championship and the premiership, this means we have more games to look for trends.
It seems that promoted teams do not fair very well when they start out on their League 1 adventure. Of the past 7 seasons we have seen 8 wins, 13 loses and 7 draws in the opening day fixtures. This is not a good stat for those new teams however after the opening day fixture these teams find out quickly how to play at this level.
In the last 4 seasons we have only seen 2 sides win on opening day, 2 seasons ago Gillingham won at home and Brentford won away. Last season we saw 3 loses and 1 draw. 2 of the loses were away, the draw was at home.
Interestingly however, Dagenham last season became the first playoff winning side to lose on opening day since Southend in 05-06. Indeed Dagenham and Southend are the only defeated sides winning the League 2 playoff in the 7 years reviewed, 3 sides have won and there have been 2 draws.
The play off winners this year were Stevenage and they will be at home to Exeter City. Exeter did well last season finishing in the top half and picked up some good wins along the way. Exeter are not particularly good starters away from home so this is a possibility for my opening selections.
Bury travel to Huddersfield. Huddersfield lost out in the play offs and are considered by the bookies to be one of the favorites for promotion. SO I cannot see Bury getting a win on opening day. Wycombe entertain relegated Scunthorpe see my blog to see how relegated teams get on! Given the trends I reckon this is likely to end in a draw. Finally Chesterfield will play Tranmere, Tranmere avoided relegation by 8 points which was fair enough and probably end in the bottom half next season as well. They did pick up 9 wins at home so have some ability there. Its a tough game to call so I won't give advice however the stats suggest Chesterfield won't win!
It seems that promoted teams do not fair very well when they start out on their League 1 adventure. Of the past 7 seasons we have seen 8 wins, 13 loses and 7 draws in the opening day fixtures. This is not a good stat for those new teams however after the opening day fixture these teams find out quickly how to play at this level.
In the last 4 seasons we have only seen 2 sides win on opening day, 2 seasons ago Gillingham won at home and Brentford won away. Last season we saw 3 loses and 1 draw. 2 of the loses were away, the draw was at home.
Interestingly however, Dagenham last season became the first playoff winning side to lose on opening day since Southend in 05-06. Indeed Dagenham and Southend are the only defeated sides winning the League 2 playoff in the 7 years reviewed, 3 sides have won and there have been 2 draws.
The play off winners this year were Stevenage and they will be at home to Exeter City. Exeter did well last season finishing in the top half and picked up some good wins along the way. Exeter are not particularly good starters away from home so this is a possibility for my opening selections.
Bury travel to Huddersfield. Huddersfield lost out in the play offs and are considered by the bookies to be one of the favorites for promotion. SO I cannot see Bury getting a win on opening day. Wycombe entertain relegated Scunthorpe see my blog to see how relegated teams get on! Given the trends I reckon this is likely to end in a draw. Finally Chesterfield will play Tranmere, Tranmere avoided relegation by 8 points which was fair enough and probably end in the bottom half next season as well. They did pick up 9 wins at home so have some ability there. Its a tough game to call so I won't give advice however the stats suggest Chesterfield won't win!
Sunday, 10 July 2011
How do promoted teams get on in the Championship
Having reviewed a lot of stats, it seems there are no consistent patterns that provide definate results. However there are some interesting trends that can hopefully be used to our advantage come match day.
I have looked at teams promoted to the Championship to see how they get on in their opening 2 fixtures. The past 7 seasons have been used which means 42 games are being analysed.
In total these teams have given us 14 wins, 12 defeats and 16 draws. This is quite interesting as we haven't seen draws coming out on top in any other specific analysis so far. If we look at the opening day fixtures for these sides we see 6 wins, 8 defeats and 7 draws. This is not particularly good form for the teams themselves however should act as a warning for ourselves. Last season Norwich and Leeds opened with home defeats whereas Millwall started with an away win.
The previous season we saw the reverse with Leicester winning at home and Peterborough and Scunthorpe started with away defeats.
If we ignore these 2 sets of results and the set from 05-06 we would see that draws were a regular sight on opening day, indeed 7 draws were see in the 12 games reviewed.
Teams playing at home on opening day have won twice, lost twice and drawn on 5 occasions.
Home form is important to us here as we can see that all 3 promoted sides this year are due to play at home.
Brighton will play Doncaster, Southampton will play Leeds and Peterborough will play Crystal Palace.
Brighton have played Doncaster twice in the last 10 seasons, so there isn't much form to go on, we have seen 1 home win and 1 away win.
Southampton have played Leeds on 5 occasions. Interestingly Southampton have won on 4 occasions, losing only once. However they have never played each other this early into a season.
Finally Peterborough have played Crystal Palace only once in 10 seasons and on that occasion the game ended in a draw, this game was in August in 2009.
There isn't much recent form naturally, as these are promoted teams there is definately no clear trend however I do find it interesting that there hasn't been a draw on opening day involving promoted teams for 2 seasons. We have also never see all 3 sides lose on opening day and we have not seen all 3 sides starting at home on the same day!
to see how teams relegated from the championship get on click here
I have looked at teams promoted to the Championship to see how they get on in their opening 2 fixtures. The past 7 seasons have been used which means 42 games are being analysed.
In total these teams have given us 14 wins, 12 defeats and 16 draws. This is quite interesting as we haven't seen draws coming out on top in any other specific analysis so far. If we look at the opening day fixtures for these sides we see 6 wins, 8 defeats and 7 draws. This is not particularly good form for the teams themselves however should act as a warning for ourselves. Last season Norwich and Leeds opened with home defeats whereas Millwall started with an away win.
The previous season we saw the reverse with Leicester winning at home and Peterborough and Scunthorpe started with away defeats.
If we ignore these 2 sets of results and the set from 05-06 we would see that draws were a regular sight on opening day, indeed 7 draws were see in the 12 games reviewed.
Teams playing at home on opening day have won twice, lost twice and drawn on 5 occasions.
Home form is important to us here as we can see that all 3 promoted sides this year are due to play at home.
Brighton will play Doncaster, Southampton will play Leeds and Peterborough will play Crystal Palace.
Brighton have played Doncaster twice in the last 10 seasons, so there isn't much form to go on, we have seen 1 home win and 1 away win.
Southampton have played Leeds on 5 occasions. Interestingly Southampton have won on 4 occasions, losing only once. However they have never played each other this early into a season.
Finally Peterborough have played Crystal Palace only once in 10 seasons and on that occasion the game ended in a draw, this game was in August in 2009.
There isn't much recent form naturally, as these are promoted teams there is definately no clear trend however I do find it interesting that there hasn't been a draw on opening day involving promoted teams for 2 seasons. We have also never see all 3 sides lose on opening day and we have not seen all 3 sides starting at home on the same day!
to see how teams relegated from the championship get on click here
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