Brazil World Cup - Group F and Group G review

Last night Argentina kicked off their tournament with a 2-1 win over Bosnia. I went with Aguero to score first but the master Messi landed to first scorer odds! Yet again another front line goal scorer bagging the goal for the country! I can;t complain as I had Benzema to score first for France and then bet again doubling my stake on Benzema to score again but had the wait for the third goal in Frances 3-0 win as the second goal was rightly judged as being an own goal! Celebration turned to concern until the frenchman put things right with a great shot later in the second half. 

Tonight Germany take on Ronaldo (sorry Portugal). Portugal are only at these finals because Ronaldo dismantled Sweden in the play offs so they cannot be considered true champion material. They were in Spains qualification group but as we saw Spain are not the force they once were. 

Germany on the other hand come here with a strong shout as they always seem to at the world cup! The German team seem to have been keeping themselves to themselves and will know what to do against Portugal tonight. Portugal haven't beaten Germany since the 2000 Euro Championships and since then they have lost 3 times the most recent being in the 2012 Euros with Germany winning 1-0. 

I cannot see any way that Germany will lose this, I don't expect Ronaldo to be fully fit despite news reports today that he is and will go with Germany at 19/20 to win this one. 

Next up Iran play Nigeria. Nigeria won their qualification group with 12 points the next team had 7 as they won 3 and drew 3 games and then beat Ethiopia 4-1 in a play off. Iran qualified top of their group ahead of South Korea so could be considered one of the stronger sides from The Asia groups. However so far Australia and Japan have both lost. From the African continent we have seen Ivory Coast win and Cameroon lose. I go with Nigeria to win this one as well by a couple of goals. 

Finally Ghana face USA. 4 years ago like a lot of teams before and after them Ghana were cheated by Luis Suarez. His handball stopped a certain goal and the resulting penalty was missed. Its all history now but shows how Ghana have come on as a team over the years. Had they won they would have been the first African side to make the semi finals. Now the last time that nearly happened was in 1990 when Cameroon lost to England, and since then Cameroon have been going in the wrong direction. 

At the start of the tournament I backed USA to score the least number of goals, firstly because I don't think they are in the same class as the rest of the teams in their group (Germany and Portugal being the others) and secondly they were a huge 12/1!  

I'm therefore a fan of Ghana and hope they will repay my faith in them tonight! 

Now then..... 188Bet tell me if I open an account with them and bet a treble if 2 win they will refund my stake with a free bet! Now I see this as a good way to combine my selections today so will be doing exactly that!

Good luck with your selections today.m

Brazil World Cup - Group E first games

Well yesterday was not the best day for my bets with my first 3 bets going down. However I managed to recover the loses with a double bet on Ivory Coast leaving me up 6 points on the day. Not great but still in positive territory.

My view on Uruguay was simply they are overrated, they struggled to get through their qualification Group and had to go via the play offs and I didn't really see anything in the game to suggest their high FIFA ranking!

Costa Rica looked good, Joel Campbell looked very good! He is on Arsenals books although out on loan last season, will be interesting to see if he can capitalise on this game and make a name for himself at this tournament.

Following the failure of Uruguay you might have thought Group D would be wide open, little did we know Pirlo was still the master and the young English are still a bit raw. I think England are 2 world class players short and the future is bright but we need to be looking at today, and today we are not good enough. Don't get me wrong, watching Sterling and Sturridge running at the defence was great to see and must be allowed to continue. Rooney needs to be playing in the centre or not at all, playing him wide is not his game and never has been! I expect England to beat and therefore knock out Uruguay next week then it will all depend on how Costa Rica do against Italy so we can work out the permutations for the final game.

So to todays fixtures.

The first thing to note is if we purely look at qualification form most games have gone to form. Eg Uruguay might be considered a surprise to lose to Costa Rica but Uruguay came through the playoffs so are efectively the worst South American side in the tournament whereas Costa Rica finished second in the CONCACAF. It must be said the South American group is stronger but as we saw on a one game playoff anything can happen! So bearing this in mind we have Switzerland v Ecuador. England played a friendly against Ecador recently at Wembley and drew 2 each. So they can score goals but they also concede.

Switzerland didn't lose a game during qualification winning 7 drawing 3. They are the top seeds in this group so should really come out on top.

The bookies make Switzerland 6/4 fav to win with Ecuador at 21/10 i can't look further than Switzerland and consider 6/4 to be a big price. Uruguay showed yesterday that South American sides can lose and this will happen to Ecuador today.

Next up is France and Honduras, some making France the dark horses of the tournament. Honduras drew 0-0 recently in Miami against England in a game stopped for an Electrical storm, I don''t see Honduras as a threat to France however France at 1/3 are a bit too short for me to bet on. I have noticed that a lot of the main strikers are scoring for their countries in the opening games. Neymar, Van Persie, Cavani, Balotelli, Sturridge, Sanchez to name a few! Benzema is 11/4 to score first and as short as 8/11 to score any time! He played really well recently in the 8-0 win over Jamaica so I will back him to score first at 11/4.

Finally tonight we have my pick for winners, Argentina. Playing Bosnia who are appearing in the finals for the first time. The game again is set up to be a one sided affair with Argentina currently 4/11 to win the game! Once again this is too short so I will probably look at some other markets during the day and see how the other bets fair before making a punt.

Hopefully we will see some more great action and goals today!

Spain v Holland!

What a great game to start the first full day of action. A repeat of the last world cup final - its the first time that has happened folks!

For me I think Spain are on the decline and I don't think they will win the cup this time around, indeed I have doubts that they will get out of the group! Chile are very strong and if Holland can get something from tonights game it could spell the start of the end for Spain.

They have some great attacking options but then so do the Dutch!

So what will i bet on tonight?

I really don't think Spain will win but this could end 0-0. So I'm going to bet 5pts on Holland at 19/4 and 10pts on Holland and the draw at 21/20.

Enjoy the game!

Group D Review - Brazil 2014

Group D

The England Group! This Group is made up of England, Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica. We have heard so much about Pirlo from Italy, Suarez from Uruguay and Rooney from England! So whats going to happen here then? Last time around Uruguay ended up in the Semi Finals thanks to Suarez and his hands on that occasion! England disappeared without trace against Germany and Italy went home early having been dumped in the Group stages and finishing bottom!

Since then things have changed for the Azzuri they finished runners up to Spain 2 years ago in the Euro Championships, Roy has got hold of the English side and they appear fairly competitive in this company and Uruguay finsihed 5th in their World Cup qualification and had to beat Jordan to get the the finals at all!

So what of Costa Rica you ask........

Well Costa Rica are ranked 28th in the world at the moment and finsihed 2nd behind USA in their qualification group. The finished above Honduras and Mexico so are by no means also rans here. However I don't think they will affect how this group pans out in all honesty but might get a sneaky draw at some point.

We know Italy have an aging side, we know Suarez has just had a knee operation, so it doesn't matter if he plays or not, he won't be running around like he did in the premiership this past season, he will not be 100% which can only help Englands chances.

England have youth on their side and if Sterling is given the chance to bomb up and down for 70 minutes we might just see some fireworks! If England keep players fit and healthy I can see them getting to the Quarter Finals at least..................

Englands opening fixture is in the Rain Forest on a pitch that looks like this! So I think the passing game is out!

My view of the Group might surprise a few, this is how I see it!

England

Italy

Uruguay

Costa Rica

Brazil World Cup 2014 Group A Review

Group A is made up of Brazil, Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon. The expectations of the home support are high and Brazil should not have any problems dealing with the other countries in this Group. If we assume that Brazil will run away with the Group the interest lies in who will finish second.

Using FIFA Rankings (Brazil ranked 3) we see Croatia are ranked 18 and Mexico are ranked 20, Cameroon are not the force they once were when they led the African Nation into the quarter finals back in 1990 with Roger Millar, Cameroon are currently ranked 56. Croatia went up 2 spots in the last FIFA reshuffle with Mexico falling 1 place.

Given this scenario the likelihood is Croatia and Mexico will be competing for the second qualification spot. Croatia are slightly shorter priced that Mexico, with Croatia 11/10 and Mexico 5/4.

Their head to head record shows Croatia winning 2 matches and Mexico winnning 1. Mexicos' win came at the 2002 World Cup.

I take Mexico to get through the Group on the basis that I expect Croatia to lose their opening game against Brazil and Mexico will beat Cameroon. As such when Croatia play Cameroon the pressure will be on Croatia to win the game which may cause an upset.

I expect the Group to finish like this

Brazil
Mexico
Croatia
Cameroon

Brazil 2014 World Cup Thoughts

Its been somewhat of a long time since my last post! But its time to get back into the swing of things.

I thought I would just have a quick look at some interesting stats around the world cup.

Brazil are currently best priced 3/1 favs with most bookmakers and with the World Cup being in Brazil no surprise there!

However you have to go back to 1998 to find a World Cup where the hosts won, that time it was France although they did not go into the tournament as favourites or even start the final as favourites against Brazil so home advantage has its benefits. Home advantage may not work too well for Brazil either as there is unrest in side the country concerning the amount of money that has been spent on the World Cup, as such it will be interesting to see how the fans react as the tournament progresses.

There is clearly a lot of talk about whether the European teams can make an impact in Brazil due to the heat, it's clearly going to be hot in some of the venues but not so hot in others. For example England will play Italy in the heat an humidity of the Amazonian city of Manaus where the temperature can get up to 30 Degrees C. However in Porte Alegre the temperature will be around 19C. France and the Netherlands will be playing here.

As such I fancy France to beat Hondurus (15 June) here and the Netherlands to beat Australia (18 June) as heat will be less of a factor.

England will play Uruguay in the Arena De Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo where the temperature should be a much more reasonable 20C. This shouldn't be too much of a problem for England and I fancy England to win this one. The big danger would have Suarez but given he has had a minor knee operation he is unlikely to be the force he has been in the Premiership this season. We will have to see how he performs against Costa Rica - assuming he even starts.

I like the look of Belgium and expect them to win their group, however should they get out of their group they will face Germany or Portugal! And should they win that the likelihood is that they would then face Argentina, given this potential route through the competition I can't consider them as winners, however the best price of 22/1 is reasonable but unrealistic to come in! I do however expect them to play Argentina but can't see them getting any further.

For me, I like the look of Argentina, they haven't won the World Cup since 1986 and Messi has never really performed on the World Cup stage to a level he would want. Given the conditions and location of this years tournament I think they will be hard to beat and fully expect them to get to the final, where in all probability they will face Brazil. Backing up Messi we have Aguaro and Higuain up front, Mascherano and Champions League Winner Angel Di Maria in midfield and Zabaleta and Demichelis Premier league winners with Man City at the back. Most of the Argentine side are based in Europe and most of the squad play for top European sides as such they are full of experience and should be considered a major threat.

4/1 is available with a lot of bookmakers however I took 9/2 earlier on this month.

History of the opening fixture.

2010 (South Africa)- South Africa 1 - 1 Mexico
2006 (Germany)     - Germany 4 - 2 Cost Rica
2002 (South Korea) - France 0 - 1 Senegal
1998 (France)      - Brazil 2 - 1 Scotland
1994 (USA)         - Germany 1 - 0 Bolivia
1990 (Italy)       - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon

The opening fixture this time around is Brazil V Croatia, the bookies give Croatia no chance at 10/1. With Brazil at 3/10 there isn't much value. We haven't seen over 2.5 goals in the opening game that often, however I thing Brazil will be keen to come out of the traps flying. If they score early I can see them scoring at least 3. Over 2.5 goals is available at Evens.

If you fancy Brazil to win rather than the 3/10 for winning the game you can get 3/4 on Brazil winning at half time and then at full time. This gives slightly better value.

If you need a new account for the world cup click here

League 2 Review October 2011

We have now entered October so its a good time to review the season so far and look for possible league winners. Today I will be looking at League 2 where we have seen the demise of Plymouth Argyle, a heavy defeat for Crawley and the emergence of Morecambe. At present the teams in League 2 have played 12 games, last season after 14 games Chesterfield were top and went on to win the League. Currently Southend head the field with 25 points, should they win their next 2 games they will be ahead of where Chesterfield were last season. Its interesting to see pre season favourites Crawley Town in second place, they have had a mixed start with some good wins but also a heavy defeat at early pace setters Morecambe. Crawley have conceded 17 goals so far, which is in my view slightly high for a team priced at 11/8 to win the league! Southend have only conceded 12 goals thus far showing they are nice and tight at the back! When looking at the past 10 seasons we can see that the winner has come from the top 6 by this stage of the season, so this means that the winner should come from one of the following teams. Southend, Crawley, AFC Wimbledon, Shrewsbury, Oxford and Morecambe. Shrewsbury are second favourites at the moment at 7/1 with Southend at 9/1 and Oxford 10/1. AFC Wimbledon and Morecambe are seen as the outsiders of the group at 18/1 and 22/1 respectively. At the start of the season I was looking at Southend as my team for the season and nothing has changed to affect this thought. Crawley at 11/8 are way too short and have not shown the dominance that you would expect from a team as short as that price at this stage. I have no doubts that Crawley will be promoted but not necessarily as champions. Paul Sturrock at Southend has been here before with Plymouth, so he has the pedigree and the experience to complete the double with Southend. I will take the 9/1 this week as I look to set up some winning bets for the end of the season.

A bit of a catch up

Now that i'm back from holiday I will hopefully get back on top with my posts. I managed 3 results our of 4 yesterday and picked up 4 out of 4 today. Yesterday I picked up Bournemouth away at Exeter, Bournemouth had a good away win last week and were too big at 2/1 away this weekend. A 2-0 win proved the point and i doubt we will see Bournemouth at that sort of price again for a while to lower league sides. Secondly I went for a short price home team in Southend. They were entertaining a dreadful Plynouth side that is in all sorts of bother again this season, Peter Reid has also just been sacked. This is probably a relief for Peter and I am sure he will succeed elsewhere, maybe back at Stoke working with Pulis? My third selection was Preston away at Brentford. Preston have picked up form lately and at 15/8 were deemed reasonable value and a good win saw the bet home. Finally I had Hereford to draw at home with Gillingham. It was a game where Hereford on form hadnt done much wrong this season and Gillingham done "ok". However the 1-6 scoreline dented the bet and indded gave Gillingham their biggest away win ever! In the premiership all of the promoted sides won on the same weekend for the first time since 2007. This was all the more interesting as only one of the teams were at home and only 1 goal was conceded by the 3 sides. I'm not sure whether this means these teams will be any more successful in avoiding the drop however after watching QPR V Newcastle on Monday night it came as no surprise as they should have won that game easily as well. I think the addition of Joey Barton and Shaun Wright Phillips is huge for QPR and should ensure that they stay up this season. Today I invested some of my winnings on a Yankee, Spurs to win, Sunderland to win, Fulham to draw and Man U to win. My first 4/4 of the season so its been a good day! The reason for the bet was based on Spurs resting the entire squad for the European fixture in midweek. They have had a difficult start with defeats against the Manchester clubs but showed resolved against Wolves last week. They played well today and deserved the 4-0 result. Sunderland have also had a tricky start however it was the fact that Stoke travelled to Kiev in midweek that prompted my selection. Most of the Stoke played have probably never had that sort of travel pattern before and history shows sides playing in Europe struggle on return to the league. Fulham have done ok and look like being draw specialists again, playing a Man City side that struggled in Europe suggested that Fulham might not have enough to win but should be able to get a draw which indeed they did, coming from 0-2 down to draw 2-2. Finally Man U are the stand out side in the league so selecting them to beat Chelsea was straightforward. The Bet paid around 16/1 which made a nice addition to yesterdays 3/4. This week we have Carling Cup action when I expect some more Premier League Teams to fall. I will review the situation and put up my selections on Monday evening.

Weekly Review

It maybe an International weekend and I may still be on holiday but the lower leagues play on all the same so its only right that I complete a review of some of the games.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.

As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.

With games of this type I like to go with the home side.

Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.

Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.

Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.

Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.

In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.

This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.

This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?

In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.

Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.

At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.

Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.

In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.

In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!

In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.

Weekend football information

As I'm currently out of the country my analysis will be short at sweet this week. I won't be betting myself however the following might be of use.

In the premiership Wolves travel to Aston Villa for the early kick off. An interesting fact is that these teams have played the same teams this season already! Wolves beating Fulham and Blackburn, Villa beating Blackburn and drawing with Fulham. The fixture between Villa and Wolves has recently gone with the away team, Wolves winning at Villa in March this year and Villa winning at Wolves late in 2010! I would be tempted by the 14/5 on offer on Wolves to pick this up again and keep their run going.

Last season Wigan only won 5 games at home and play a QPR side that now includes one J Barton signed from Newcastle. I'm not sure whether he will play on Saturday but its an interesting move by QPR! QPR won at Everton last week after being dismantled in their first home game against Bolton. I think Wigan will striggle to win home games again this season so would be looking at QPR at 2/1 or under 2.5 goals at 7/10.

I hope these little tip bits are of help for the weekend, enjoy the football and any other betting opportunities that come up this week!

Strange things are a happening in the football stats!

Its an amazing start to the season once again, i'm not having much luck with my yankees and the stats show this is due to the unusual winning patterns that are showing up, so many home sides not winning.
Last weekend on Manchester City won at home. In the championship only 13 home wins have been registered in the 3 rounds of games! That is astonishing!

I'm off on holiday for 2 weeks so don;t have much time for analysis this week.

I'm going to attempt another yankee, failure again will result in me reconsidering my strategy!

I'm picking home teams that have started well and should be able to kick on in the coming weeks.

Preston NE V Exeter - Preston lost on the opening day but have since bagged some much needed points, as one of the favorites for promotion this is the sort of game they should be winning.

Gillingham V Plymouth - Plymouth have not had a great start and seem to be ok for 45 minutes before fading, Gillingham look like having a good season, Plymouth need money, players and some luck in the coming weeks! Gillingham home win.

Rotherham V Barnet - Rotherham have won 3 out of 3 so far and play a Barnet team who have won lost and drawn in their opening fixtures. They have already won away but I don't see that being repeated. Rotherham home win.

Finally my tip for promotion, Southend. Southend are at home to Burton, Burton have drawn all of their games so far but I feel Southend should get the better of them and take the bacon.

I'm going with my usual 10pts which will net $50.

The Start Of The Premiership 2011/2012

Tomorrow finally sees the start of the premiership season. Its been a long wait and for fans of Tottenham (myself included) and Everton the wait goes on due to the horrific scenes seen in Tottenham last weekend.

I have been thinking of where to look for my bet this week and have been looking at the markets for WBA V Manchester United. Man U are very short at 4/9 so I have been looking elsewhere for some value. I thought Man U were very impressive going forward last weekend in the Community Shield however I don't think they look so good at the back. Their new keeper will need some time to get used to the Premiership and looks like a possible weak link. As such I think WBA will score but Man U will still win the game, so the Goals scored market or both teams to score market may hold the value i'm looking for. The prices are 8/11 more than 2.5 goals and 3/4 both teams to score, as this is so close in terms of price I think that the 8/11 on 2.5 goals is the place to go for safety should Man U not concede. If you think WBA will score but Man U will win then that must mean more than 2.5 goals so take your pick here!

Wigan open up against Norwich, this time last year Wigan lost 0-4 to Blackpool, I don't see anything to suggest Wigan have strengthened this summer so will take a punt on Norwich to repeat the angony seen at Wigan last year. Norwich are a tasty 11/4 to turn over Wigan.

In League 2 Bristol Rovers are at home to another of my teams Torquay United. Rovers played very well and beat Wimbledon last weekend whereas Torquay only managed a 2-2 draw with Burton after being 2 goals down. Paul Buckle the Rovers manager, will look to get one over his old club and I expect Bristol to win this at 5/6.

Finally Swindon travel to local rivals Cheltenham, I expect that Cheltenham will struggle this season and Swindon to go well, Swindon winning last week 3-0 at home and Cheltenham losing away at Gillingham. Swindon should collect 3 more points on Saturday and at 23/20 offer good value.

Once again I will be watching some games to look for some in play markets, if anyone has any betting suggestions please add a comment.

My Yankee is priced as such
8/11
11/4
5/6
23/20

Returns will be £105

Good luck for the weekend!

Never right off Manchester United and use the bet in play options

Although yesterday was a bit of a disappointment as only Plymouth managed a draw for the relegated League 1 teams it was great to get the football season off and running.

First up yesterday were Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers, i had this down as a draw in my yankee however at 1-0 to Rovers I did back them at 4-5 to win the game as they were all over Wimbledon at the time. Sure enough they scored again before Wimbledon got back in it with Rovers scoring a penalty in the last 10 minutes to win the game 3-2. So although the yankee died a death I was able to collect as I was able to watch the game live and assess the game at the first goal.

I was pleased with Rovers and they look a real danger for the season ahead so fully justifying my bet on them to be champions.

Today I was able to watch the Community shield and when Lescott scored for Manchester City I still felt Manchester United were the better team. Seeing Manchester United at 4-1 was too good to miss so I bet on United to win. At 2-0 the price was a staggering 16-1, I didn't take this unfortunately but a similar thing happened to United last season against Blackpool when Rooney had his issues with the cameraman. At 2-2 Bet365 were still offering 2-1 on United, again too big a price I thought so I took that price as well.

With Nani scoring with the last kick of a great game I was a very happy man! I believe that to bet in play you need to really be watching the game so you can assess the game from your own point of view, that way if you see a price you feel is too big you can lump on and reap the rewards.

I believe Man United were 2-0 twice last season and on both occasions didn't lose the game, I'm sure Fergie had a few words at half time to gee up his troops and it showed in the second half.

Finally, the stats show the team winning the Shield generally go on to win the League!

Today is the start of the new English Champioship 2011-2012

Tonight sees the start of the English Championship where Hull City will face relegated Blackpool. Last season Blackpool started well in the Premiership and for a long time it looked like they might stay up. However a dreadful away record finally took its toll and they were relegated after 1 season back to the Championship. Hull City find themselves in the Championship for a second season after they flirted with the Premiership, so both these clubs have parachute payments from the Premier League however only Hull have been spending it.

Blackpool have not spent much money and have lost the likes of DJ Campbell and Charlie Adam, these losses are key to Blackpool and will probably result in Blackpool finishing mid table this term.

Reports are rife about Blackpool players not being motivated, this can only be a bad thing for the club and I expect this to be clearly seen tonight. Holloway will want a good performance but I cannot see it happening.

Hull have a great record over Blackpool at home and I can only see 1 result, that being a home win for Hull City. Hull can be backed at 6/5 with Bluesq and Bet365.

So I'm going 10pts on the home win.

Stoke Vs Hajduk Split The Return

Tonight sees the second leg of the Europa Qualifiers, with Stoke traveling to Hajduk Split. Stoke won the first leg by a single goal scored in the 3rd minute and I collected a modest win. I expect Tony Pulis to send out a defensive setup tonight in order to get through to the next round as that is worth a lot of money to Stoke.

I have checked last seasons away form and Stoke only managed 1 0-0 all season, they didn't have any at home. Fulham have made a habit of drawing 0-0 away from home in the cup this season so I have a sneaky feeling that we may be due a 0-0 in Split. As I am up 10pts at the moment (10 being my standard bet) I'm going to split the bet with 5pts on 0-0 at 7/1 with bluesq - its also 0-0 with Bet365 but only 4/1 on Betfair which is interesting in its own way! The other 5pts will go on Stoke to win at 11/8, my theory here is that should Split push on to look for the goal they need they are open to a counter attack and a late winner for Stoke which would effectively end the tie, indeed any goal at any time for Stoke should end the contest. I don't normally go for correct score betting but feel 7/1 is a reasonable price.

Countdown to the big kick off starts here

With less than 7 days to the opening round of English League football matches its time to focus on the opening fixtures to see if any matches are statistically a good thing to bet on.

For me, preseason friendlies don't offer much in the way of form, as managers swap players around, use different systems and generally use the games to increase the fitness of the staff. Therefore there is no real form to go on for the first couple of weeks of the season so instead I look to the previous performance of teams and gauge whether a certain pattern will continue.

In the English Championship we have Reading, the losing finalists in the play offs. Reading start off against Millwall at home and will be looking for a fast start to the season following their loss to Swansea at Wembley. The 2 sides have played 5 times at Reading in recent history with Reading winning every time. In the reverse fixture Reading have only lost once, so from 10 games 1 defeat for Reading.

Last season Reading were surprisingly turned over by Scunthorpe at home on the opening day, whereas Millwall got a flyer with a 0-3 win at Bristol City.

Looking at other losing play off finalists we see the following

Year	Home Team	Away Team	Score
2010	Cardiff	Sheffield United(PL)	1-1
2009	Middlesborough	Sheffield United(PL)	0-0
2008	Blackpool	Bristol City(PL)	0-1
2007	Burnley	WBA(PL)	2-1
2006	Leeds(PL)	Norwich	2-1
2005	Watford	Preston(PL)	1-2
2004	Leicester	West Ham United(PL)	0-0
2003	Sheffield United (PL)	Gillingham	0-0
2002	Norwich City (PL)	Grimsby	0-0

The table shows us that only West Brom have lost on the opening day after losing the play off final in the championship. This is a reasonable form guide and suggests that these sides are able to keep the core of the team together from that defeat. We see a lot of draws in this sequence however given Readings fine form against Millwall and no worrying sequence for losing play off finalists I will be including Reading in my list for next Saturday.

The New Domestic English Football Season 2011/2012 Has Arrived

It seems a long time since the FA Cup final back in May, and even longer was the fateful day Arsenal turned up at Wembley to collect their Carling Cup only to be turned over by Birmingham City, this seemed to be the trigger for the end of the Arsenal fight on all fronts. That game was played in front of 88,851 screaming fans and countless TV viewers and radio listeners. The date was the 27 February 2011 and unbeknown to all that result was going to have an effect on the 2011-2012 Carling Cup competition.

A number of years ago the authorities brought in a rule in England stating that any side qualifying for European competition would get a bye to the third round of the Carling Cup. This was to save a game for those tired footballers that had to fly around Europe in Business Class (stay focused Martin don't get side tracked). As Birmingham won the Cup they get a bye to the third round of the competition, and because they were relegated it means that there is now an odd number of sides in the first round of the cup! This is an interesting scenario as it hasnt come up before in this competition - we had a similar issue when Man United decided to play in the Club World Championship rather than fulfill their domestic obligations and play in the FA Cup.

The solution to this problem was that the 2 lowest ranked sides would have a play off to see who will go into the first round of the Carling Cup proper. The 2 lowest ranked sides from last season playing in this seasons competition are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon, the 2 sides promoted from the Conference. It seems a shame that one of these 2 will miss out on playing a more lucrative first round tie however it seems the logical solution.

So tonight, 29 July 2011 the Carling Cup begins when Crawley Town entertain AFC Wimbledon. The winners will go on to play away at Crystal Palace. This seems rather interesting as Wimbledon used to be tenants at the home of Crystal Palace before they upset many people and decamped to Milton Keynes. Are the footballing gods looking down on us and telling us that Wimbledon will get their day at Selhurst Park or will the match go the way of big money spenders Crawley?

Last season these sides both won the home fixtures against each other, so i believe this game will be closer than the bookies seem to want to make out.
Crawley are available at 8/11 , its 5/2 the draw and Wimbledon a huge 10/3.

If nothing else this game may give a us a view to how the teams have got on in the summer recruiting players and how well they will gel in the early weeks of the season.

So here we go! the domestic football season gets underway tonight, probably for the first time its before the Charity Shield (or community shield) that is the season curtain raiser. For me, I may watch the game and look at some in play markets.

To see my bet status click here

Final Season Long Selections

I have now posted my selections for the coming season. The theory behind my selections are documented through the blog, however if you would like clarification on any of the selections let me know.

All of my prices come from Bluesq and Bet365. If you would like to set up an account and get some free bets for the season
click Here for Bluesq
click Here for Bet365

To see my selections click here

Different Betting Options For 2011-2012

Today I have decided to look at a "special" bet being offered by Bet365, this is off the back of our regular contributor tyates86 who provided us with the "bet without Man U and Chelsea"! Here the suggested bet is Man City at 5/4 which does look incredible value.

So what else could we look at to find some value?

We have the "who will score the most goals" market - this is offered by Bet365 click on the link to create an account.

Looking at the previous seasons I'm simply looking at which team scores the most goals, since 2001/02 (with the exception of 2001/02) the teams finishing first or second have always been the highest goals scorers. In 2001/02 the highest scorers were Man U who finished 3rd, albeit only 3 points behind second.

Since then Man U have finished up as top scorers on 4 occasions, Chelsea once (the season the won the league and scored 103 goals - the highest number of goals). So maybe rather than betting on a team to win the league you should consider backing that team to score the most goals as there is a link! Also if your team finished second they could still be leading scorers!

The prices available for the top scorers are

Man City 4/1
Liverpool 13/2
Man U 7/1
Chelsea 9/1
Arsenal 10/1

As you see these prices are much better than betting to win the league! Indeed I find these odds somewhat surprising when you look at the betting for the leading goalscorer. Man U have 2 of the top 3 favorites and Chelsea have the other, these 2 are still the favorites for the league also. So Man U and Chelsea in this market look like fantastic value!

Opening Day fixtures in English League 2

Having identified a possible strategy for the opening day of the football season I have looked at the relegated sides from League 1 last season and assessed their previous form against the teams they are playing on the opening day. To see my comments on how relegated teams get on click here

First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.

Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.

Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.

However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.

Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.