Sunday, 9 October 2011

League 2 Review October 2011

We have now entered October so its a good time to review the season so far and look for possible league winners. Today I will be looking at League 2 where we have seen the demise of Plymouth Argyle, a heavy defeat for Crawley and the emergence of Morecambe. At present the teams in League 2 have played 12 games, last season after 14 games Chesterfield were top and went on to win the League. Currently Southend head the field with 25 points, should they win their next 2 games they will be ahead of where Chesterfield were last season. Its interesting to see pre season favourites Crawley Town in second place, they have had a mixed start with some good wins but also a heavy defeat at early pace setters Morecambe. Crawley have conceded 17 goals so far, which is in my view slightly high for a team priced at 11/8 to win the league! Southend have only conceded 12 goals thus far showing they are nice and tight at the back! When looking at the past 10 seasons we can see that the winner has come from the top 6 by this stage of the season, so this means that the winner should come from one of the following teams. Southend, Crawley, AFC Wimbledon, Shrewsbury, Oxford and Morecambe. Shrewsbury are second favourites at the moment at 7/1 with Southend at 9/1 and Oxford 10/1. AFC Wimbledon and Morecambe are seen as the outsiders of the group at 18/1 and 22/1 respectively. At the start of the season I was looking at Southend as my team for the season and nothing has changed to affect this thought. Crawley at 11/8 are way too short and have not shown the dominance that you would expect from a team as short as that price at this stage. I have no doubts that Crawley will be promoted but not necessarily as champions. Paul Sturrock at Southend has been here before with Plymouth, so he has the pedigree and the experience to complete the double with Southend. I will take the 9/1 this week as I look to set up some winning bets for the end of the season.

Friday, 23 September 2011

Weekend of 24/25 September 2011

Following the Carling Cup fixtures in midweek we return to the bread and butter of the League. At the time of writing Leeds are 2-0 up on Brighton showing how hard it is to play on a Wednesday and then again on a Friday 0 all in the name of tv money! To be fair to Brighton they have done extremely well and the tv money from the cup game apparently pays for one of their players wages for a whole season! So to give up 3 points may be worth it in the long run! Last weekend we saw Stoke, Fulham, Man City, Birmingham all struggle after European games so I will follow that theme by going for Crawley to win at Aldershot. Aldershot played Rochdale on Tuesday night winning 2-1 and progressing to the 4th round for the first time in a long time. Crawley have had a bad few weeks but returned to form at the weekend winning 3-1 at home to Bradford after going a goal behind. At 11/8 Crawley are good value to win against a side that could be more interested in the 4th round draw of the Carling Cup rather than 3 points at home! Down at Home Park Plymouth have sacked Peter Reid after 7 defeats in a row. Given the financial strife its comes as a shame/blessing for Reid, they have put senior pro Fletcher in charge whilst the sale of the club is finalised. This could be a situation of a team getting up for the new manager against a side that has only won once away all season and that was at Hereford 4-0. Hereford lost 6-1 at home last week to Gillingham, which puts the Macclesfield game in perspectice. Macclefield have failed to score in any of their previous away games so I'm going out on a limb to pick Plymouth at 2/1. Burnley have yet to win at home this season, tomorrow they will entertain Southampton, the current pace setters in the Championship. Southampton are another side that figured in midweek so will have those extra miles in the legs, they managed to beat Preston 2-1. I fancy Burnley to get a rare home win tomorrow again based on the fact that they didn't play in midweek, 19/10 is the price for the home win. Finally I will be including Ipswich in my bet, playing away at Middleborough. Ipswich did well to beat Coventry last Monday night and will be up for the trip to the North. Middlesborough lost to Crystal Palace in midweek after beating them last weekend at the same ground. I feel Ipswich will be the fresher side and at 4.1 are great value. Good luck with your weekend betting!

Monday, 19 September 2011

Weekly Accumulator

This midweek I'm going for a mixture of league and cup games. On Monday night I like the look of Ipswich at home to Coventry. At 21/20 Ipswich are hugely overpriced given Coventrys bad start to the season. On Tuesday I like the look of Rochdale away at Aldershot. 8/5 for a higher league side to beat a league 2 side is again great value, Rochdale seem to get up for big games and should proceed to the next round of the cup this week. Aston Villa need a good cup run as their manager searches for some confidence in the side and a need to win over the fans. They are unbeaten this season after drawing at home to Newcastle and should be able to overcome a poor Bolton side who have struggled this term albeit they have had some tough fixtures includeing Man U , Man c and Liverpool. Although losing at home to Norwich cannot be a good thing and a resting of key players on Tuesday night could be in order. Finally I'm going for Millwall away at Wolves. By their own admission Wolves never got started on Saturday and were thumped 3-0 at home by QPR. To be fair QPR played well when drawing with Newcastle on Monday last week and should really have won that game as well. Wolves started well but have stuttered over the last 2 weeks but I'm sure they have enough in their locker this season to once agaiin survive. Survival is key for Wolves and again I expect McCarthy to rest some of his key players for some fringe players whereas Millwall could play a decent lineup as they push for another cup final. At 10/3 Millwall are great value after their 0-0 draw with local rivals West Ham on Saturday. The bet will pay £412 if the results go my way, but to cover myself I am confident of Ipswich so will place a bet on Ipswich to cover my outlay here so if the accumulator doesnt come in the Ipswich result should make sure im slightly better than break even.

Sunday, 18 September 2011

A bit of a catch up

Now that i'm back from holiday I will hopefully get back on top with my posts. I managed 3 results our of 4 yesterday and picked up 4 out of 4 today. Yesterday I picked up Bournemouth away at Exeter, Bournemouth had a good away win last week and were too big at 2/1 away this weekend. A 2-0 win proved the point and i doubt we will see Bournemouth at that sort of price again for a while to lower league sides. Secondly I went for a short price home team in Southend. They were entertaining a dreadful Plynouth side that is in all sorts of bother again this season, Peter Reid has also just been sacked. This is probably a relief for Peter and I am sure he will succeed elsewhere, maybe back at Stoke working with Pulis? My third selection was Preston away at Brentford. Preston have picked up form lately and at 15/8 were deemed reasonable value and a good win saw the bet home. Finally I had Hereford to draw at home with Gillingham. It was a game where Hereford on form hadnt done much wrong this season and Gillingham done "ok". However the 1-6 scoreline dented the bet and indded gave Gillingham their biggest away win ever! In the premiership all of the promoted sides won on the same weekend for the first time since 2007. This was all the more interesting as only one of the teams were at home and only 1 goal was conceded by the 3 sides. I'm not sure whether this means these teams will be any more successful in avoiding the drop however after watching QPR V Newcastle on Monday night it came as no surprise as they should have won that game easily as well. I think the addition of Joey Barton and Shaun Wright Phillips is huge for QPR and should ensure that they stay up this season. Today I invested some of my winnings on a Yankee, Spurs to win, Sunderland to win, Fulham to draw and Man U to win. My first 4/4 of the season so its been a good day! The reason for the bet was based on Spurs resting the entire squad for the European fixture in midweek. They have had a difficult start with defeats against the Manchester clubs but showed resolved against Wolves last week. They played well today and deserved the 4-0 result. Sunderland have also had a tricky start however it was the fact that Stoke travelled to Kiev in midweek that prompted my selection. Most of the Stoke played have probably never had that sort of travel pattern before and history shows sides playing in Europe struggle on return to the league. Fulham have done ok and look like being draw specialists again, playing a Man City side that struggled in Europe suggested that Fulham might not have enough to win but should be able to get a draw which indeed they did, coming from 0-2 down to draw 2-2. Finally Man U are the stand out side in the league so selecting them to beat Chelsea was straightforward. The Bet paid around 16/1 which made a nice addition to yesterdays 3/4. This week we have Carling Cup action when I expect some more Premier League Teams to fall. I will review the situation and put up my selections on Monday evening.

Friday, 2 September 2011

Weekly Review

It maybe an International weekend and I may still be on holiday but the lower leagues play on all the same so its only right that I complete a review of some of the games.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.

As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.

With games of this type I like to go with the home side.

Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.

Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.

Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.

Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.

In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.

This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.

This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?

In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.

Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.

At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.

Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.

In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.

In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!

In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.





Saturday, 27 August 2011

Weekend football information

As I'm currently out of the country my analysis will be short at sweet this week. I won't be betting myself however the following might be of use.

In the premiership Wolves travel to Aston Villa for the early kick off. An interesting fact is that these teams have played the same teams this season already! Wolves beating Fulham and Blackburn, Villa beating Blackburn and drawing with Fulham. The fixture between Villa and Wolves has recently gone with the away team, Wolves winning at Villa in March this year and Villa winning at Wolves late in 2010! I would be tempted by the 14/5 on offer on Wolves to pick this up again and keep their run going.

Last season Wigan only won 5 games at home and play a QPR side that now includes one J Barton signed from Newcastle. I'm not sure whether he will play on Saturday but its an interesting move by QPR! QPR won at Everton last week after being dismantled in their first home game against Bolton. I think Wigan will striggle to win home games again this season so would be looking at QPR at 2/1 or under 2.5 goals at 7/10.

I hope these little tip bits are of help for the weekend, enjoy the football and any other betting opportunities that come up this week!

Monday, 22 August 2011

Man United to beat Spurs?

Having had a look at the stats for the past 10 seasons we see that Spurs have only once picked up a point at Old Trafford the home of Man United. To make matters worse for Spurs they have only scored on 3 occasions, once scoring twice but conceding 5!

They hav only crossed swords in this time in August once, in 2007 when Manchester won 1-0.

It is often the case that pundits say the best time to play Manchester United is at the start of a season! So looking at the last 10 years of home games played at Old Trafford we can see that infact Manchester United have never lost in August in the 10 seasons I have looked at! Furthermore they have only drawn on 3 occasions. Spurs for their part have not loast away since 2008 when they were beaten by Middlesborough.

In the 15 games Manchester United have played at home they have only conceded 6 goals in 5 of the games. This shows that actually Manchester United are pretty ruthless at home in August.

Both sides have picked up maximum points in their August games when playing as they are tonight since 2008 so something has to give tonight.

I understand that Modric is not in the right frame of mind to play for Spurs tonight - but I'm sure he will pick up his £40K wages anyway this week. Spurs were very impressive last week against Hearts in the Europa Cup - really it shows the class between the Scottish Premier and the English Premier, nevertheless Spurs did play well again without Modric.

Manchester United started with a 2-1 win s I suggested they might away at WBA, however they have injury doubts around Vidic, who is almost certainly out and Ferdinand who is also a serious doubt. This means that the back line for Man Utd is severely dented with Rafeal also out and the new goalie David de Gea still settling in. The average of the Man Utd back line could be 20 years. Given Spurs haven't won at Old Trafford since 1989 it means that almost all of the backline have never seen Spurs win at Old Trafford in their lifetime!

As ever Man Utd will be strong going forward and will no doubt score. I do give Spurs a glimmer of hope although all the stats suggest otherwise.

It could be a day for Spurs to get a draw as I expect Man U to concede, the question will be who plays in goal for Spurs and how interested Rooney is!

I'm going to suggest a 1-1 draw or 2-2 draw as the draw is 11/4 where as 13/2 for 1-1 and 16/1 for 2-2 is much more interesting pricewise!

I'm going to bet 1/2 my stake on these outcomes as this is more a punt that a golden opportunity as chances are Man U will win and stretch their good home form.