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Thursday 19 June 2014

Brazil World Cup 214 - England face their destiny with Uruguay

Looking back on yesterday I was not surprised to see the demise of Spain. Last week I wrote about the fact I didn't feel Spain would be interested this time around or indeed get out of the group and so it proved. They were not a patch of the team that won the last World Cup or the Euro Championships. Chile will now play Holland to see who wins the Group, that should be a very interesting game as the team finishing second in this Group could face Brazil in the round of 16.

Equally unimpressive were Brazil against Mexico. They very much seem to be a 1 man team and if I was part of the Brazil setup I would be very worried about playing Chile next! The dutch did their best to throw away a perfect start against Australia but ultimately class told against the lowest ranked team in the competition to walk away with a slim victory.

For me Germany are the stand out team so far, Argentina have yet to kick into gear and Chile have been superb. Also I suggested recently that Ronaldo wasn't 100% fit and so it proved yesterday when he limped out of training and could be missing for the rest of the tournament, that being the case I think that cements Portugals failure at this tournament.

Today sees England take on Uruguay, so much has been said about Rooney this week, will he won't he play. If he plays behind Sturridge I think we will win, Suarez seems to be a certain starter although there have to be questions over his fitness as well. Diego Costa and Ronaldo both came here with injury doubts and neither player has been at the races, the same I think will be said of Suarez after tonights game. Its desperation time for Uruguay knowing that defeat will pretty much end their tournament.

I take England (11/10) to win this one and will also take a punt on 2-0 (17/2). England are not big scorers in World Cup games so can't see the margin being any bigger, however they are full of confidence despite the set back to Italy.

In the early game Columbia play Ivory Coast, the African nations have been poor during this World Cup shown again last night my Croatians demolition of  Cameroon. The South American teams seem to be very strong, as such I can only see one result from this game and that is a Columbia win (23/10).

In the late game Japan play Greece. Greece were very poor against Columbia and I cannot see that changing against Japan. Japan despite losing to Ivory Coast did put up a good show and I can see this ending in a scoring draw.

One last thing! You know things are bad for the Spain Manager when you see that last night he came out of the stadium to board the bus and tried to get onto the Chile bus! How times change!!!!!

Good luck with your betting today.

Tuesday 17 June 2014

Brazil World Cup 2014 - Group H kickoff

Just a quick post today. Yesterday didn't go to plan with both African sides failing to win but Germany pulled off a great win against Portugal and look good for a long run in the tournament. Nigeria were very poor as Iran did a great job in keeping them out with very few scares during the game. I didn't see the USA game but it seems I have under estimated the USA team! Today sees the start of Group H, I expect like most people to see Belgium beat Algeria and Russia be too strong for South Korea. We also have Brazil playing Mexico. Brazil did ok last week against Croatia and expect them to be improved tonight against Mexico. I expect Neymar to score again as he is the talisman of the team. So I will go with Belgium,Brazil and Russia no surprise there! As seems to be the trend for strikers to score I will go with Lukaku and Neymar to score first for their respective countries. Good luck tonight!

Monday 16 June 2014

Brazil World Cup - Group F and Group G review

Last night Argentina kicked off their tournament with a 2-1 win over Bosnia. I went with Aguero to score first but the master Messi landed to first scorer odds! Yet again another front line goal scorer bagging the goal for the country! I can;t complain as I had Benzema to score first for France and then bet again doubling my stake on Benzema to score again but had the wait for the third goal in Frances 3-0 win as the second goal was rightly judged as being an own goal! Celebration turned to concern until the frenchman put things right with a great shot later in the second half. 

Tonight Germany take on Ronaldo (sorry Portugal). Portugal are only at these finals because Ronaldo dismantled Sweden in the play offs so they cannot be considered true champion material. They were in Spains qualification group but as we saw Spain are not the force they once were. 

Germany on the other hand come here with a strong shout as they always seem to at the world cup! The German team seem to have been keeping themselves to themselves and will know what to do against Portugal tonight. Portugal haven't beaten Germany since the 2000 Euro Championships and since then they have lost 3 times the most recent being in the 2012 Euros with Germany winning 1-0. 

I cannot see any way that Germany will lose this, I don't expect Ronaldo to be fully fit despite news reports today that he is and will go with Germany at 19/20 to win this one. 

Next up Iran play Nigeria. Nigeria won their qualification group with 12 points the next team had 7 as they won 3 and drew 3 games and then beat Ethiopia 4-1 in a play off. Iran qualified top of their group ahead of South Korea so could be considered one of the stronger sides from The Asia groups. However so far Australia and Japan have both lost. From the African continent we have seen Ivory Coast win and Cameroon lose. I go with Nigeria to win this one as well by a couple of goals. 

Finally Ghana face USA. 4 years ago like a lot of teams before and after them Ghana were cheated by Luis Suarez. His handball stopped a certain goal and the resulting penalty was missed. Its all history now but shows how Ghana have come on as a team over the years. Had they won they would have been the first African side to make the semi finals. Now the last time that nearly happened was in 1990 when Cameroon lost to England, and since then Cameroon have been going in the wrong direction. 

At the start of the tournament I backed USA to score the least number of goals, firstly because I don't think they are in the same class as the rest of the teams in their group (Germany and Portugal being the others) and secondly they were a huge 12/1!  

I'm therefore a fan of Ghana and hope they will repay my faith in them tonight! 

Now then..... 188Bet tell me if I open an account with them and bet a treble if 2 win they will refund my stake with a free bet! Now I see this as a good way to combine my selections today so will be doing exactly that!

Good luck with your selections today.m

Sunday 15 June 2014

Brazil World Cup - The Wonders of in play betting

It would seem now that the Swiss have come from behind we should look at the world that is in play betting. The most amazing fact at this world cup so far is this.

In 5 games the team scoring first have gone on to lose the game. In the Swiss game the minute Ecuador scored Switzerland were 9/2 to win the game having started the game at 7/5. I took this price and am glad I did however at half time Ray Winston (Bet365) was offering me 11/2 on the Swiss.

Brazil, Holland, Costa Rica, Ivory Coast and Switzerland have all conceded first but won their game.

Therefore in 71% of games where both teams have scored the team conceding first has won, this could be a good indicator for in play betting followers.

2 games have finished to nil so far so are not included in these stats.

Of the 9 games 8 have finished with over 2.5 goals, this is another interesting fact and shows that bettering over 2.5 goals is a useful bet in this tournament so far. I think the second round of games will be the same but the 3rd round of games could be a bit more cagey.

Games won by the team conceding first when both teams score in the game.

Brazil World Cup - Group E first games

Well yesterday was not the best day for my bets with my first 3 bets going down. However I managed to recover the loses with a double bet on Ivory Coast leaving me up 6 points on the day. Not great but still in positive territory.

My view on Uruguay was simply they are overrated, they struggled to get through their qualification Group and had to go via the play offs and I didn't really see anything in the game to suggest their high FIFA ranking!

Costa Rica looked good, Joel Campbell looked very good! He is on Arsenals books although out on loan last season, will be interesting to see if he can capitalise on this game and make a name for himself at this tournament.

Following the failure of Uruguay you might have thought Group D would be wide open, little did we know Pirlo was still the master and the young English are still a bit raw. I think England are 2 world class players short and the future is bright but we need to be looking at today, and today we are not good enough. Don't get me wrong, watching Sterling and Sturridge running at the defence was great to see and must be allowed to continue. Rooney needs to be playing in the centre or not at all, playing him wide is not his game and never has been! I expect England to beat and therefore knock out Uruguay next week then it will all depend on how Costa Rica do against Italy so we can work out the permutations for the final game.

So to todays fixtures.

The first thing to note is if we purely look at qualification form most games have gone to form. Eg Uruguay might be considered a surprise to lose to Costa Rica but Uruguay came through the playoffs so are efectively the worst South American side in the tournament whereas Costa Rica finished second in the CONCACAF. It must be said the South American group is stronger but as we saw on a one game playoff anything can happen! So bearing this in mind we have Switzerland v Ecuador. England played a friendly against Ecador recently at Wembley and drew 2 each. So they can score goals but they also concede.

Switzerland didn't lose a game during qualification winning 7 drawing 3. They are the top seeds in this group so should really come out on top.

The bookies make Switzerland 6/4 fav to win with Ecuador at 21/10 i can't look further than Switzerland and consider 6/4 to be a big price. Uruguay showed yesterday that South American sides can lose and this will happen to Ecuador today.

Next up is France and Honduras, some making France the dark horses of the tournament. Honduras drew 0-0 recently in Miami against England in a game stopped for an Electrical storm, I don''t see Honduras as a threat to France however France at 1/3 are a bit too short for me to bet on. I have noticed that a lot of the main strikers are scoring for their countries in the opening games. Neymar, Van Persie, Cavani, Balotelli, Sturridge, Sanchez to name a few! Benzema is 11/4 to score first and as short as 8/11 to score any time! He played really well recently in the 8-0 win over Jamaica so I will back him to score first at 11/4.

Finally tonight we have my pick for winners, Argentina. Playing Bosnia who are appearing in the finals for the first time. The game again is set up to be a one sided affair with Argentina currently 4/11 to win the game! Once again this is too short so I will probably look at some other markets during the day and see how the other bets fair before making a punt.

Hopefully we will see some more great action and goals today!

Saturday 14 June 2014

Brazil World Cup 2014 - Group C and Group D kickoff

Today we will see the entrance of England into the World Cup! They have only won 2 or their previous 6 opening World Cup matches so hopes are high but reality could soon set in! Last night we saw the Spanish get taken apart but a fantastic Dutch performance, I always felt that the Dutch might win but not by that margin. However first game up today is the first game from Group C - Columbia v Greece. With Chile winning a tighter encounter than the score line suggests against Australia (3-1) the South American teams have started this tournament well. I expect Columbia to carry on that trend today against a reasonable but not electrifying Greece side. Columbia are odds on 10/11 to win the game so I will take a chance on 10/3 for the draw at half time and Columbia to win the game. Following that game we have the opening fixture from Group D Uruguay v Costa Rica here again Uruguay are pretty unbackable at 9/20 to win the game so I expect Uruguay to come out flying and be winning at half time and full time at 21/20. Then the big one! England against Italy, so much has already been written about this game but the stats are the stats! England 2 wins from 6 opening fixtures. In 2010 - 0-0 Algeria, 2006 - 1-0 Paraguay, 2002 - 1-1 Sweden, 1998 - 2-0 Tunisia, 1990 - 1-1 Rep of Ireland, 1986 - 0-1 Portugal So we can't beat European sides in opening games! However I do believe this England side have the ability to win the game the question is will Roy allow them to express themselves and go for it or will he play a system not to lose the game. I'm not sure exactly what I will bet on as I will wait for the teams to be announce (for me the key is whether Wellbeck or Stirling plays) however I think it will be a low scoring game, so I can see 0-0 1-0 or 1-1, I don't think England will lose. Good luck with your bets today, if you want to share them in the comments please do.

Friday 13 June 2014

Spain v Holland!

What a great game to start the first full day of action. A repeat of the last world cup final - its the first time that has happened folks!

For me I think Spain are on the decline and I don't think they will win the cup this time around, indeed I have doubts that they will get out of the group! Chile are very strong and if Holland can get something from tonights game it could spell the start of the end for Spain.

They have some great attacking options but then so do the Dutch!

So what will i bet on tonight?

I really don't think Spain will win but this could end 0-0. So I'm going to bet 5pts on Holland at 19/4 and 10pts on Holland and the draw at 21/20.

Enjoy the game!

Group A World Cup - Mexico v Cameroon

The Lions of Cameroon have only won 1 game since the world cup of 1990 when England knocked them out in the quarter finals! This leads me to think that they will once again struggle to get out of Group A. Unlikely to beat Brazil and based on last nights game unlikely to get anything from Croatia they need to win today to give them any chance at all.

Mexico struggled to the world cup beating New Zealand in a play off. However Fifa still have Mexico ranked 20th in the world, although in past years they have been a lot higher.

I feel Mexico are best placed to win this game although I expect Croatia and Brazil to progress from this group.

Today I'm going with Mexico to win.  Priced at 5/4 looks a reasonable bet.

This could come down to who will be able to score? Javier Hernandez (6/1 to score first) (hasn't scored in the last 9 games for Mexico) or Samuel Eto'o (7/1 to score first) - the old timer who didn't havve the best season at Chelsea!






Thursday 12 June 2014

Group D Review - Brazil 2014

Group D

The England Group! This Group is made up of England, Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica. We have heard so much about Pirlo from Italy, Suarez from Uruguay and Rooney from England! So whats going to happen here then? Last time around Uruguay ended up in the Semi Finals thanks to Suarez and his hands on that occasion! England disappeared without trace against Germany and Italy went home early having been dumped in the Group stages and finishing bottom!

Since then things have changed for the Azzuri they finished runners up to Spain 2 years ago in the Euro Championships, Roy has got hold of the English side and they appear fairly competitive in this company and Uruguay finsihed 5th in their World Cup qualification and had to beat Jordan to get the the finals at all!

So what of Costa Rica you ask........

Well Costa Rica are ranked 28th in the world at the moment and finsihed 2nd behind USA in their qualification group. The finished above Honduras and Mexico so are by no means also rans here. However I don't think they will affect how this group pans out in all honesty but might get a sneaky draw at some point.

We know Italy have an aging side, we know Suarez has just had a knee operation, so it doesn't matter if he plays or not, he won't be running around like he did in the premiership this past season, he will not be 100% which can only help Englands chances.

England have youth on their side and if Sterling is given the chance to bomb up and down for 70 minutes we might just see some fireworks! If England keep players fit and healthy I can see them getting to the Quarter Finals at least..................

Englands opening fixture is in the Rain Forest on a pitch that looks like this! So I think the passing game is out!


My view of the Group might surprise a few, this is how I see it!
England
Italy
Uruguay
Costa Rica

Wednesday 11 June 2014

Brazil World Cup - Group C Review

Group C

Group C could be considered to be one of the weaker groups in the World Cup this time around although that doesn't make it any easier to pick the qualifiers from this group. Its probably safe to say that these teams won't be contesting the final however it doesn't mean these group games will not be worth a watch.

Columbia are the seeded team in this group however they haven't qualified since 1998 when they were in Englands group losing 0-2 to England on that occasion and failing to get out of the group. They are now ranked 8th in the world and come into the tournament in good form. They have only conceded 2 goals since losing to Uruguay 0-2 in September 2013 which is not a bad record! 

Greece are currently ranked 12 in the world so should give Columbia a good game! Greece came from nowhere to win the European Championships in 2004 when they didn't even qualify then won every game 1-0 to win the whole thing! I can't see this happening again however they could at least beat Japan, if they can get something from Columbia or Ivory Coast they could scrape through.

The Ivory Coast are one of those teams that on paper you would expect them to go quite well, their team is slightly aging but with the likes of Yaya Toure anything is possible. This group does look ideal for them and they could progress if they can get a fast start.

Finally the Japanese side have the skill and technique to run around their opponents all day, they come into this tournament as Asian champions but they lack a potent goal scorer and could struggle to trouble the opponents net.

For me the group will finish

Columbia
Ivory Coast
Greece
Japan

Could be an interesting group to bet on match outcomes as they are well matched as a group of 4.

Monday 9 June 2014

Brazil World Cup 2014 - Group B Review - Spain to miss out

GROUP B

Current World Cup holders find themselves in Group B with their World Cup 2010 Final opponents The Netherlands. In my view the Dutch have improved since that day, infact their kick em and hit em tactics they employed in that game seem a distant memory and was ill-advised at the time! The Spanish team is 4 years older and could be considered an "ageing" team, that said they are still a quality outfit, and given the Champions League was contested by the 2 Madrid clubs suggest that they will still be a force to be reckoned with. However in the heat and given a number of the team have UEFA Championship winners medals and World Cup medals will they be as hungry to do it all again? 

Chile are the interesting team here, ranked above the Netherlands in the FIFA rankings and from the South American continent they must be considered a threat to this group. Australia make up the quartet, I fear they will struggle to get a goal let alone a point against these 3 teams. 

I don't think this group is a given for Spain, despite being ranked 1 in the world they could be vulnerable to teams with more to gain. Spain are 1/6 to qualify from their group, this is incredibly short given the quality of Chile and the Dutch. Spain play The Netherlands first in this group, whoever fails to win that game will be struggling to qualify, I just have a sneaky feeling it will be Spain that will struggle and could be another previous winner to come back and struggle at the next competition. 

I can see The Netherlands winning this Group and Chile going through in second place. 

Predicted finishing positions

The Netherlands
Chile
Spain
Australia

The Netherlands at 3/1 and Chile at 4/1 to win the group are huge prices, I would avoid the spanish at 4/6 as they are too short and could well struggle from the start! 

Brazil World Cup 2014 Group A Review

Group A is made up of Brazil, Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon. The expectations of the home support are high and Brazil should not have any problems dealing with the other countries in this Group. If we assume that Brazil will run away with the Group the interest lies in who will finish second.

Using FIFA Rankings (Brazil ranked 3) we see Croatia are ranked 18 and Mexico are ranked 20, Cameroon are not the force they once were when they led the African Nation into the quarter finals back in 1990 with Roger Millar, Cameroon are currently ranked 56. Croatia went up 2 spots in the last FIFA reshuffle with Mexico falling 1 place.

Given this scenario the likelihood is Croatia and Mexico will be competing for the second qualification spot. Croatia are slightly shorter priced that Mexico, with Croatia 11/10 and Mexico 5/4.

Their head to head record shows Croatia winning 2 matches and Mexico winnning 1. Mexicos' win came at the 2002 World Cup.

I take Mexico to get through the Group on the basis that I expect Croatia to lose their opening game against Brazil and Mexico will beat Cameroon. As such when Croatia play Cameroon the pressure will be on Croatia to win the game which may cause an upset.

I expect the Group to finish like this

Brazil
Mexico
Croatia
Cameroon

Brazil 2014 World Cup Thoughts

Its been somewhat of a long time since my last post! But its time to get back into the swing of things.

I thought I would just have a quick look at some interesting stats around the world cup.

Brazil are currently best priced 3/1 favs with most bookmakers and with the World Cup being in Brazil no surprise there!

However you have to go back to 1998 to find a World Cup where the hosts won, that time it was France although they did not go into the tournament as favourites or even start the final as favourites against Brazil so home advantage has its benefits. Home advantage may not work too well for Brazil either as there is unrest in side the country concerning the amount of money that has been spent on the World Cup, as such it will be interesting to see how the fans react as the tournament progresses.

There is clearly a lot of talk about whether the European teams can make an impact in Brazil due to the heat, it's clearly going to be hot in some of the venues but not so hot in others. For example England will play Italy in the heat an humidity of the Amazonian city of Manaus where the temperature can get up to 30 Degrees C. However in Porte Alegre the temperature will be around 19C. France and the Netherlands will be playing here.

As such I fancy France to beat Hondurus (15 June) here and the Netherlands to beat Australia (18 June) as heat will be less of a factor.

England will play Uruguay in the Arena De Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo where the temperature should be a much more reasonable 20C. This shouldn't be too much of a problem for England and I fancy England to win this one. The big danger would have Suarez but given he has had a minor knee operation he is unlikely to be the force he has been in the Premiership this season. We will have to see how he performs against Costa Rica - assuming he even starts.

I like the look of Belgium and expect them to win their group, however should they get out of their group they will face Germany or Portugal! And should they win that the likelihood is that they would then face Argentina, given this potential route through the competition I can't consider them as winners, however the best price of 22/1 is reasonable but unrealistic to come in! I do however expect them to play Argentina but can't see them getting any further.

For me, I like the look of Argentina, they haven't won the World Cup since 1986 and Messi has never really performed on the World Cup stage to a level he would want. Given the conditions and location of this years tournament I think they will be hard to beat and fully expect them to get to the final, where in all probability they will face Brazil. Backing up Messi we have Aguaro and Higuain up front, Mascherano and Champions League Winner Angel Di Maria in midfield and Zabaleta and Demichelis Premier league winners with Man City at the back. Most of the Argentine side are based in Europe and most of the squad play for top European sides as such they are full of experience and should be considered a major threat.

4/1 is available with a lot of bookmakers however I took 9/2 earlier on this month.

History of the opening fixture.

2010 (South Africa)- South Africa 1 - 1 Mexico
2006 (Germany)     - Germany 4 - 2 Cost Rica
2002 (South Korea) - France 0 - 1 Senegal
1998 (France)      - Brazil 2 - 1 Scotland
1994 (USA)         - Germany 1 - 0 Bolivia
1990 (Italy)       - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon

The opening fixture this time around is Brazil V Croatia, the bookies give Croatia no chance at 10/1. With Brazil at 3/10 there isn't much value. We haven't seen over 2.5 goals in the opening game that often, however I thing Brazil will be keen to come out of the traps flying. If they score early I can see them scoring at least 3. Over 2.5 goals is available at Evens.

If you fancy Brazil to win rather than the 3/10 for winning the game you can get 3/4 on Brazil winning at half time and then at full time. This gives slightly better value.

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