Brazil 2014 World Cup Thoughts

Its been somewhat of a long time since my last post! But its time to get back into the swing of things.

I thought I would just have a quick look at some interesting stats around the world cup.

Brazil are currently best priced 3/1 favs with most bookmakers and with the World Cup being in Brazil no surprise there!

However you have to go back to 1998 to find a World Cup where the hosts won, that time it was France although they did not go into the tournament as favourites or even start the final as favourites against Brazil so home advantage has its benefits. Home advantage may not work too well for Brazil either as there is unrest in side the country concerning the amount of money that has been spent on the World Cup, as such it will be interesting to see how the fans react as the tournament progresses.

There is clearly a lot of talk about whether the European teams can make an impact in Brazil due to the heat, it's clearly going to be hot in some of the venues but not so hot in others. For example England will play Italy in the heat an humidity of the Amazonian city of Manaus where the temperature can get up to 30 Degrees C. However in Porte Alegre the temperature will be around 19C. France and the Netherlands will be playing here.

As such I fancy France to beat Hondurus (15 June) here and the Netherlands to beat Australia (18 June) as heat will be less of a factor.

England will play Uruguay in the Arena De Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo where the temperature should be a much more reasonable 20C. This shouldn't be too much of a problem for England and I fancy England to win this one. The big danger would have Suarez but given he has had a minor knee operation he is unlikely to be the force he has been in the Premiership this season. We will have to see how he performs against Costa Rica - assuming he even starts.

I like the look of Belgium and expect them to win their group, however should they get out of their group they will face Germany or Portugal! And should they win that the likelihood is that they would then face Argentina, given this potential route through the competition I can't consider them as winners, however the best price of 22/1 is reasonable but unrealistic to come in! I do however expect them to play Argentina but can't see them getting any further.

For me, I like the look of Argentina, they haven't won the World Cup since 1986 and Messi has never really performed on the World Cup stage to a level he would want. Given the conditions and location of this years tournament I think they will be hard to beat and fully expect them to get to the final, where in all probability they will face Brazil. Backing up Messi we have Aguaro and Higuain up front, Mascherano and Champions League Winner Angel Di Maria in midfield and Zabaleta and Demichelis Premier league winners with Man City at the back. Most of the Argentine side are based in Europe and most of the squad play for top European sides as such they are full of experience and should be considered a major threat.

4/1 is available with a lot of bookmakers however I took 9/2 earlier on this month.

History of the opening fixture.

2010 (South Africa)- South Africa 1 - 1 Mexico
2006 (Germany)     - Germany 4 - 2 Cost Rica
2002 (South Korea) - France 0 - 1 Senegal
1998 (France)      - Brazil 2 - 1 Scotland
1994 (USA)         - Germany 1 - 0 Bolivia
1990 (Italy)       - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon

The opening fixture this time around is Brazil V Croatia, the bookies give Croatia no chance at 10/1. With Brazil at 3/10 there isn't much value. We haven't seen over 2.5 goals in the opening game that often, however I thing Brazil will be keen to come out of the traps flying. If they score early I can see them scoring at least 3. Over 2.5 goals is available at Evens.

If you fancy Brazil to win rather than the 3/10 for winning the game you can get 3/4 on Brazil winning at half time and then at full time. This gives slightly better value.

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