Tomorrow finally sees the start of the premiership season. Its been a long wait and for fans of Tottenham (myself included) and Everton the wait goes on due to the horrific scenes seen in Tottenham last weekend.
I have been thinking of where to look for my bet this week and have been looking at the markets for WBA V Manchester United. Man U are very short at 4/9 so I have been looking elsewhere for some value. I thought Man U were very impressive going forward last weekend in the Community Shield however I don't think they look so good at the back. Their new keeper will need some time to get used to the Premiership and looks like a possible weak link. As such I think WBA will score but Man U will still win the game, so the Goals scored market or both teams to score market may hold the value i'm looking for. The prices are 8/11 more than 2.5 goals and 3/4 both teams to score, as this is so close in terms of price I think that the 8/11 on 2.5 goals is the place to go for safety should Man U not concede. If you think WBA will score but Man U will win then that must mean more than 2.5 goals so take your pick here!
Wigan open up against Norwich, this time last year Wigan lost 0-4 to Blackpool, I don't see anything to suggest Wigan have strengthened this summer so will take a punt on Norwich to repeat the angony seen at Wigan last year. Norwich are a tasty 11/4 to turn over Wigan.
In League 2 Bristol Rovers are at home to another of my teams Torquay United. Rovers played very well and beat Wimbledon last weekend whereas Torquay only managed a 2-2 draw with Burton after being 2 goals down. Paul Buckle the Rovers manager, will look to get one over his old club and I expect Bristol to win this at 5/6.
Finally Swindon travel to local rivals Cheltenham, I expect that Cheltenham will struggle this season and Swindon to go well, Swindon winning last week 3-0 at home and Cheltenham losing away at Gillingham. Swindon should collect 3 more points on Saturday and at 23/20 offer good value.
Once again I will be watching some games to look for some in play markets, if anyone has any betting suggestions please add a comment.
My Yankee is priced as such
8/11
11/4
5/6
23/20
Returns will be £105
Good luck for the weekend!
Showing posts with label tip. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tip. Show all posts
Friday, 12 August 2011
Thursday, 11 August 2011
Carling Cup Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool
Tonight Blackpool will travel to Sheffield to play Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough. This game stands out as Blackpool are available at 8/5 with Bluesq. Blackpool will be without 3 internationals that were involved in internal squads this week and their goalkeeper is out with an injury. This might suggest that now is a good time to play Blackpool or even back against them (Sheffield available at 13/8), however Sheffield Wednesdays aim this season is promotion and with a game against Bournemouth at the weekend it is likely that Gary Megson (Wednesday Manager) could make 11 changes from the weekend!
Blackpool played very well in the Championship opener, fielding 8 players that played in the Premiership so they still have strength in the side. I would expect Holloways men to dominate this game and win it comfortably.
My usual 10pt bet will be going on Blackpool tonight.
A quick note for the weekend, Spurs V Everton has fallen victim to the dreadful scenes seen this week, hopefully this will be rearranged shortly!
Oh and anyone wanting to play in a simple Premiership score prediction game please check this out. Its non profit, free and just a bit of family fun! Many of the players in the this game are under 12's! Come along and have some fun.
Click Here For Prediction Game
Blackpool played very well in the Championship opener, fielding 8 players that played in the Premiership so they still have strength in the side. I would expect Holloways men to dominate this game and win it comfortably.
My usual 10pt bet will be going on Blackpool tonight.
A quick note for the weekend, Spurs V Everton has fallen victim to the dreadful scenes seen this week, hopefully this will be rearranged shortly!
Oh and anyone wanting to play in a simple Premiership score prediction game please check this out. Its non profit, free and just a bit of family fun! Many of the players in the this game are under 12's! Come along and have some fun.
Click Here For Prediction Game
Sunday, 7 August 2011
Never right off Manchester United and use the bet in play options
Although yesterday was a bit of a disappointment as only Plymouth managed a draw for the relegated League 1 teams it was great to get the football season off and running.
First up yesterday were Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers, i had this down as a draw in my yankee however at 1-0 to Rovers I did back them at 4-5 to win the game as they were all over Wimbledon at the time. Sure enough they scored again before Wimbledon got back in it with Rovers scoring a penalty in the last 10 minutes to win the game 3-2. So although the yankee died a death I was able to collect as I was able to watch the game live and assess the game at the first goal.
I was pleased with Rovers and they look a real danger for the season ahead so fully justifying my bet on them to be champions.
Today I was able to watch the Community shield and when Lescott scored for Manchester City I still felt Manchester United were the better team. Seeing Manchester United at 4-1 was too good to miss so I bet on United to win. At 2-0 the price was a staggering 16-1, I didn't take this unfortunately but a similar thing happened to United last season against Blackpool when Rooney had his issues with the cameraman. At 2-2 Bet365 were still offering 2-1 on United, again too big a price I thought so I took that price as well.
With Nani scoring with the last kick of a great game I was a very happy man! I believe that to bet in play you need to really be watching the game so you can assess the game from your own point of view, that way if you see a price you feel is too big you can lump on and reap the rewards.
I believe Man United were 2-0 twice last season and on both occasions didn't lose the game, I'm sure Fergie had a few words at half time to gee up his troops and it showed in the second half.
Finally, the stats show the team winning the Shield generally go on to win the League!
First up yesterday were Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers, i had this down as a draw in my yankee however at 1-0 to Rovers I did back them at 4-5 to win the game as they were all over Wimbledon at the time. Sure enough they scored again before Wimbledon got back in it with Rovers scoring a penalty in the last 10 minutes to win the game 3-2. So although the yankee died a death I was able to collect as I was able to watch the game live and assess the game at the first goal.
I was pleased with Rovers and they look a real danger for the season ahead so fully justifying my bet on them to be champions.
Today I was able to watch the Community shield and when Lescott scored for Manchester City I still felt Manchester United were the better team. Seeing Manchester United at 4-1 was too good to miss so I bet on United to win. At 2-0 the price was a staggering 16-1, I didn't take this unfortunately but a similar thing happened to United last season against Blackpool when Rooney had his issues with the cameraman. At 2-2 Bet365 were still offering 2-1 on United, again too big a price I thought so I took that price as well.
With Nani scoring with the last kick of a great game I was a very happy man! I believe that to bet in play you need to really be watching the game so you can assess the game from your own point of view, that way if you see a price you feel is too big you can lump on and reap the rewards.
I believe Man United were 2-0 twice last season and on both occasions didn't lose the game, I'm sure Fergie had a few words at half time to gee up his troops and it showed in the second half.
Finally, the stats show the team winning the Shield generally go on to win the League!
Friday, 5 August 2011
Today is the start of the new English Champioship 2011-2012
Tonight sees the start of the English Championship where Hull City will face relegated Blackpool. Last season Blackpool started well in the Premiership and for a long time it looked like they might stay up. However a dreadful away record finally took its toll and they were relegated after 1 season back to the Championship. Hull City find themselves in the Championship for a second season after they flirted with the Premiership, so both these clubs have parachute payments from the Premier League however only Hull have been spending it.
Blackpool have not spent much money and have lost the likes of DJ Campbell and Charlie Adam, these losses are key to Blackpool and will probably result in Blackpool finishing mid table this term.
Reports are rife about Blackpool players not being motivated, this can only be a bad thing for the club and I expect this to be clearly seen tonight. Holloway will want a good performance but I cannot see it happening.
Hull have a great record over Blackpool at home and I can only see 1 result, that being a home win for Hull City. Hull can be backed at 6/5 with Bluesq and Bet365.
So I'm going 10pts on the home win.
Blackpool have not spent much money and have lost the likes of DJ Campbell and Charlie Adam, these losses are key to Blackpool and will probably result in Blackpool finishing mid table this term.
Reports are rife about Blackpool players not being motivated, this can only be a bad thing for the club and I expect this to be clearly seen tonight. Holloway will want a good performance but I cannot see it happening.
Hull have a great record over Blackpool at home and I can only see 1 result, that being a home win for Hull City. Hull can be backed at 6/5 with Bluesq and Bet365.
So I'm going 10pts on the home win.
Thursday, 4 August 2011
Stoke Vs Hajduk Split The Return
Tonight sees the second leg of the Europa Qualifiers, with Stoke traveling to Hajduk Split. Stoke won the first leg by a single goal scored in the 3rd minute and I collected a modest win. I expect Tony Pulis to send out a defensive setup tonight in order to get through to the next round as that is worth a lot of money to Stoke.
I have checked last seasons away form and Stoke only managed 1 0-0 all season, they didn't have any at home. Fulham have made a habit of drawing 0-0 away from home in the cup this season so I have a sneaky feeling that we may be due a 0-0 in Split. As I am up 10pts at the moment (10 being my standard bet) I'm going to split the bet with 5pts on 0-0 at 7/1 with bluesq - its also 0-0 with Bet365 but only 4/1 on Betfair which is interesting in its own way! The other 5pts will go on Stoke to win at 11/8, my theory here is that should Split push on to look for the goal they need they are open to a counter attack and a late winner for Stoke which would effectively end the tie, indeed any goal at any time for Stoke should end the contest. I don't normally go for correct score betting but feel 7/1 is a reasonable price.
I have checked last seasons away form and Stoke only managed 1 0-0 all season, they didn't have any at home. Fulham have made a habit of drawing 0-0 away from home in the cup this season so I have a sneaky feeling that we may be due a 0-0 in Split. As I am up 10pts at the moment (10 being my standard bet) I'm going to split the bet with 5pts on 0-0 at 7/1 with bluesq - its also 0-0 with Bet365 but only 4/1 on Betfair which is interesting in its own way! The other 5pts will go on Stoke to win at 11/8, my theory here is that should Split push on to look for the goal they need they are open to a counter attack and a late winner for Stoke which would effectively end the tie, indeed any goal at any time for Stoke should end the contest. I don't normally go for correct score betting but feel 7/1 is a reasonable price.
Friday, 29 July 2011
The New Domestic English Football Season 2011/2012 Has Arrived
It seems a long time since the FA Cup final back in May, and even longer was the fateful day Arsenal turned up at Wembley to collect their Carling Cup only to be turned over by Birmingham City, this seemed to be the trigger for the end of the Arsenal fight on all fronts. That game was played in front of 88,851 screaming fans and countless TV viewers and radio listeners. The date was the 27 February 2011 and unbeknown to all that result was going to have an effect on the 2011-2012 Carling Cup competition.
A number of years ago the authorities brought in a rule in England stating that any side qualifying for European competition would get a bye to the third round of the Carling Cup. This was to save a game for those tired footballers that had to fly around Europe in Business Class (stay focused Martin don't get side tracked). As Birmingham won the Cup they get a bye to the third round of the competition, and because they were relegated it means that there is now an odd number of sides in the first round of the cup! This is an interesting scenario as it hasnt come up before in this competition - we had a similar issue when Man United decided to play in the Club World Championship rather than fulfill their domestic obligations and play in the FA Cup.
The solution to this problem was that the 2 lowest ranked sides would have a play off to see who will go into the first round of the Carling Cup proper. The 2 lowest ranked sides from last season playing in this seasons competition are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon, the 2 sides promoted from the Conference. It seems a shame that one of these 2 will miss out on playing a more lucrative first round tie however it seems the logical solution.
So tonight, 29 July 2011 the Carling Cup begins when Crawley Town entertain AFC Wimbledon. The winners will go on to play away at Crystal Palace. This seems rather interesting as Wimbledon used to be tenants at the home of Crystal Palace before they upset many people and decamped to Milton Keynes. Are the footballing gods looking down on us and telling us that Wimbledon will get their day at Selhurst Park or will the match go the way of big money spenders Crawley?
Last season these sides both won the home fixtures against each other, so i believe this game will be closer than the bookies seem to want to make out.
Crawley are available at 8/11 , its 5/2 the draw and Wimbledon a huge 10/3.
If nothing else this game may give a us a view to how the teams have got on in the summer recruiting players and how well they will gel in the early weeks of the season.
So here we go! the domestic football season gets underway tonight, probably for the first time its before the Charity Shield (or community shield) that is the season curtain raiser. For me, I may watch the game and look at some in play markets.
To see my bet status click here
A number of years ago the authorities brought in a rule in England stating that any side qualifying for European competition would get a bye to the third round of the Carling Cup. This was to save a game for those tired footballers that had to fly around Europe in Business Class (stay focused Martin don't get side tracked). As Birmingham won the Cup they get a bye to the third round of the competition, and because they were relegated it means that there is now an odd number of sides in the first round of the cup! This is an interesting scenario as it hasnt come up before in this competition - we had a similar issue when Man United decided to play in the Club World Championship rather than fulfill their domestic obligations and play in the FA Cup.
The solution to this problem was that the 2 lowest ranked sides would have a play off to see who will go into the first round of the Carling Cup proper. The 2 lowest ranked sides from last season playing in this seasons competition are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon, the 2 sides promoted from the Conference. It seems a shame that one of these 2 will miss out on playing a more lucrative first round tie however it seems the logical solution.
So tonight, 29 July 2011 the Carling Cup begins when Crawley Town entertain AFC Wimbledon. The winners will go on to play away at Crystal Palace. This seems rather interesting as Wimbledon used to be tenants at the home of Crystal Palace before they upset many people and decamped to Milton Keynes. Are the footballing gods looking down on us and telling us that Wimbledon will get their day at Selhurst Park or will the match go the way of big money spenders Crawley?
Last season these sides both won the home fixtures against each other, so i believe this game will be closer than the bookies seem to want to make out.
Crawley are available at 8/11 , its 5/2 the draw and Wimbledon a huge 10/3.
If nothing else this game may give a us a view to how the teams have got on in the summer recruiting players and how well they will gel in the early weeks of the season.
So here we go! the domestic football season gets underway tonight, probably for the first time its before the Charity Shield (or community shield) that is the season curtain raiser. For me, I may watch the game and look at some in play markets.
To see my bet status click here
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Final Season Long Selections
I have now posted my selections for the coming season. The theory behind my selections are documented through the blog, however if you would like clarification on any of the selections let me know.
All of my prices come from Bluesq and Bet365. If you would like to set up an account and get some free bets for the season
click Here for Bluesq
click Here for Bet365
To see my selections click here
All of my prices come from Bluesq and Bet365. If you would like to set up an account and get some free bets for the season
click Here for Bluesq
click Here for Bet365
To see my selections click here
Saturday, 23 July 2011
Different Betting Options For 2011-2012
Today I have decided to look at a "special" bet being offered by Bet365, this is off the back of our regular contributor tyates86 who provided us with the "bet without Man U and Chelsea"! Here the suggested bet is Man City at 5/4 which does look incredible value.
So what else could we look at to find some value?
We have the "who will score the most goals" market - this is offered by Bet365 click on the link to create an account.
Looking at the previous seasons I'm simply looking at which team scores the most goals, since 2001/02 (with the exception of 2001/02) the teams finishing first or second have always been the highest goals scorers. In 2001/02 the highest scorers were Man U who finished 3rd, albeit only 3 points behind second.
Since then Man U have finished up as top scorers on 4 occasions, Chelsea once (the season the won the league and scored 103 goals - the highest number of goals). So maybe rather than betting on a team to win the league you should consider backing that team to score the most goals as there is a link! Also if your team finished second they could still be leading scorers!
The prices available for the top scorers are
Man City 4/1
Liverpool 13/2
Man U 7/1
Chelsea 9/1
Arsenal 10/1
As you see these prices are much better than betting to win the league! Indeed I find these odds somewhat surprising when you look at the betting for the leading goalscorer. Man U have 2 of the top 3 favorites and Chelsea have the other, these 2 are still the favorites for the league also. So Man U and Chelsea in this market look like fantastic value!
So what else could we look at to find some value?
We have the "who will score the most goals" market - this is offered by Bet365 click on the link to create an account.
Looking at the previous seasons I'm simply looking at which team scores the most goals, since 2001/02 (with the exception of 2001/02) the teams finishing first or second have always been the highest goals scorers. In 2001/02 the highest scorers were Man U who finished 3rd, albeit only 3 points behind second.
Since then Man U have finished up as top scorers on 4 occasions, Chelsea once (the season the won the league and scored 103 goals - the highest number of goals). So maybe rather than betting on a team to win the league you should consider backing that team to score the most goals as there is a link! Also if your team finished second they could still be leading scorers!
The prices available for the top scorers are
Man City 4/1
Liverpool 13/2
Man U 7/1
Chelsea 9/1
Arsenal 10/1
As you see these prices are much better than betting to win the league! Indeed I find these odds somewhat surprising when you look at the betting for the leading goalscorer. Man U have 2 of the top 3 favorites and Chelsea have the other, these 2 are still the favorites for the league also. So Man U and Chelsea in this market look like fantastic value!
Sunday, 17 July 2011
Opening Day fixtures in English League 2
Having identified a possible strategy for the opening day of the football season I have looked at the relegated sides from League 1 last season and assessed their previous form against the teams they are playing on the opening day. To see my comments on how relegated teams get on click here
First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.
Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.
Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.
However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.
Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.
First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.
Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.
Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.
However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.
Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.
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