Sunday, 10 July 2011

How do promoted teams get on in the Championship

Having reviewed a lot of stats, it seems there are no consistent patterns that provide definate results. However there are some interesting trends that can hopefully be used to our advantage come match day.

I have looked at teams promoted to the Championship to see how they get on in their opening 2 fixtures. The past 7 seasons have been used which means 42 games are being analysed.

In total these teams have given us 14 wins, 12 defeats and 16 draws. This is quite interesting as we haven't seen draws coming out on top in any other specific analysis so far. If we look at the opening day fixtures for these sides we see 6 wins, 8 defeats and 7 draws. This is not particularly good form for the teams themselves however should act as a warning for ourselves. Last season Norwich and Leeds opened with home defeats whereas Millwall started with an away win.

The previous season we saw the reverse with Leicester winning at home and Peterborough and Scunthorpe started with away defeats.

If we ignore these 2 sets of results and the set from 05-06 we would see that draws were a regular sight on opening day, indeed 7 draws were see in the 12 games reviewed.

Teams playing at home on opening day have won twice, lost twice and drawn on 5 occasions.

Home form is important to us here as we can see that all 3 promoted sides this year are due to play at home.
Brighton will play Doncaster, Southampton will play Leeds and Peterborough will play Crystal Palace.

Brighton have played Doncaster twice in the last 10 seasons, so there isn't much form to go on, we have seen 1 home win and 1 away win.

Southampton have played Leeds on 5 occasions. Interestingly Southampton have won on 4 occasions, losing only once. However they have never played each other this early into a season.

Finally Peterborough have played Crystal Palace only once in 10 seasons and on that occasion the game ended in a draw, this game was in August in 2009.

There isn't much recent form naturally, as these are promoted teams there is definately no clear trend however I do find it interesting that there hasn't been a draw on opening day involving promoted teams for 2 seasons. We have also never see all 3 sides lose on opening day and we have not seen all 3 sides starting at home on the same day!

to see how teams relegated from the championship get on click here


  1. Hi Martin,

    Where do you look for your data, would be interesting to see what other data there is. I think my biggest thing this year will be avoiding 'patterns' and trying to find true cause behing correlations.

    Also you mentioned having 3 online accounts. Which sites do you use?

  2. the data is provided by www.football-data.co.uk
    I have a tool that lets me analyse the data by creating charts and using combinations of data.

    The website provides a host of different sets of data for many leagues. My interest lies with English football so i am not interested in looking at other countries stats. The english data has many bits of information in it so i'm sure you will find some uses in it.

    My accounts are with Bluesq, Bet365 and Betfair.

    I will do a quick article on the tool i use to show what i can do.