The start of life in English League 2

When teams get relegated to the 4th tier of English football they find themselves one step away from the dreaded Conference League! The Conference League is "dreaded" because it is now overflowing with professional League teams all intent on getting out of it and back into League 2. So when a team is relegated from League 1 into League 2 I would have thought every effort would be made to get off to a fast start to retain the League status of the club. Teams playing in League 1 the previous season should in theory be stronger than many of the League 2 conterparts however the results of the opening fixtures do nothing to support this theory!

Looking at the past 7 seasons we see that the win % of teams relegated the previous season is not very good! Indeed taking the opening 2 fixtures for all of the teams relegated we see that in 27 of the fixtures we saw a draw. I find this an incredible stat as we saw 14 wins and 15 loses. So almost 50% of the opening 2 games played by relegated teams in League 2 end in a draw!

If we look at the opening day fixtures alone we see 53% of the games ended in a draw - this represents 15 games, we saw 8 wins and 5 loses inthe same selection of games.

In the 2007/08 season all 4 teams drew on the opening day. Since then we have seen a minimum of 2 games drawn on opening day with 3 games being drawn last season. Please note that some of the relegated teams played each other which slightly skews the stats.

Looking at the fixtures for the relegated teams.
Wimbledon V Bristol Rovers
Swindon V Crewe
Shrewsbury V Plymouth
Macclesfield V Dagenham & Redbridge

Its not out of the question that these 4 games could end in draws. I am tempted to do some research on these games to look for other factors and then possibly place some combination bets on draws occuring here in the attempt to pick up some early winnings at the start of the new football season.

I would need 2 results to come in to cover my bet and 3 or more would give me a healthy profit on the opening day.

I will post my research on these 4 specific games once I have completed it!

How do teams promoted from League 2 get on in League 1

I'm almost at the end of my review of promoted and relegated teams performances and today is the turn of the promoted sides from League 2. To clarify, 4 teams get promoted rather than the 3 up to the championship and the premiership, this means we have more games to look for trends.

It seems that promoted teams do not fair very well when they start out on their League 1 adventure. Of the past 7 seasons we have seen 8 wins, 13 loses and 7 draws in the opening day fixtures. This is not a good stat for those new teams however after the opening day fixture these teams find out quickly how to play at this level.

In the last 4 seasons we have only seen 2 sides win on opening day, 2 seasons ago Gillingham won at home and Brentford won away. Last season we saw 3 loses and 1 draw. 2 of the loses were away, the draw was at home.

Interestingly however, Dagenham last season became the first playoff winning side to lose on opening day since Southend in 05-06. Indeed Dagenham and Southend are the only defeated sides winning the League 2 playoff in the 7 years reviewed, 3 sides have won and there have been 2 draws.

The play off winners this year were Stevenage and they will be at home to Exeter City. Exeter did well last season finishing in the top half and picked up some good wins along the way. Exeter are not particularly good starters away from home so this is a possibility for my opening selections.

Bury travel to Huddersfield. Huddersfield lost out in the play offs and are considered by the bookies to be one of the favorites for promotion. SO I cannot see Bury getting a win on opening day. Wycombe entertain relegated Scunthorpe see my blog to see how relegated teams get on! Given the trends I reckon this is likely to end in a draw. Finally Chesterfield will play Tranmere, Tranmere avoided relegation by 8 points which was fair enough and probably end in the bottom half next season as well. They did pick up 9 wins at home so have some ability there. Its a tough game to call so I won't give advice however the stats suggest Chesterfield won't win!

How do promoted teams get on in the Championship

Having reviewed a lot of stats, it seems there are no consistent patterns that provide definate results. However there are some interesting trends that can hopefully be used to our advantage come match day.

I have looked at teams promoted to the Championship to see how they get on in their opening 2 fixtures. The past 7 seasons have been used which means 42 games are being analysed.

In total these teams have given us 14 wins, 12 defeats and 16 draws. This is quite interesting as we haven't seen draws coming out on top in any other specific analysis so far. If we look at the opening day fixtures for these sides we see 6 wins, 8 defeats and 7 draws. This is not particularly good form for the teams themselves however should act as a warning for ourselves. Last season Norwich and Leeds opened with home defeats whereas Millwall started with an away win.

The previous season we saw the reverse with Leicester winning at home and Peterborough and Scunthorpe started with away defeats.

If we ignore these 2 sets of results and the set from 05-06 we would see that draws were a regular sight on opening day, indeed 7 draws were see in the 12 games reviewed.

Teams playing at home on opening day have won twice, lost twice and drawn on 5 occasions.

Home form is important to us here as we can see that all 3 promoted sides this year are due to play at home.
Brighton will play Doncaster, Southampton will play Leeds and Peterborough will play Crystal Palace.

Brighton have played Doncaster twice in the last 10 seasons, so there isn't much form to go on, we have seen 1 home win and 1 away win.

Southampton have played Leeds on 5 occasions. Interestingly Southampton have won on 4 occasions, losing only once. However they have never played each other this early into a season.

Finally Peterborough have played Crystal Palace only once in 10 seasons and on that occasion the game ended in a draw, this game was in August in 2009.

There isn't much recent form naturally, as these are promoted teams there is definately no clear trend however I do find it interesting that there hasn't been a draw on opening day involving promoted teams for 2 seasons. We have also never see all 3 sides lose on opening day and we have not seen all 3 sides starting at home on the same day!

to see how teams relegated from the championship get on click here

How do relegated Championship teams start in League 1

In recent years the profile of a relegated team from the Championship has changed. It seemed to be that the relegated teams were either yoyo teams that were too good for League 1 but not good enough for the championship or teams fighting above their weight for a season or 2. However in recent times the championship teams being relegated have been ex Premiership teams that have fallen from grace, usually due to bad financial management at the club. Leicester, Leeds, Man City, Forest, Southampton, Charlton and Norwich all match this profile.

The data is taken from the past 7 seasons of League 1.

This season we saw Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe relegated. Scunthorpe could be seen as the yoyo side whereas Sheffield United are ex Premiership and were in the playoffs for promotion recently and Preston generally were a top half side for many years.

The teams relegated in 09/10 (Plymouth, Peterborough and Sheffield Weds) all started with wins the following season. This was the first time all 3 relegated teams have started with a win. Interestingly 2 of them lost the second game and the other had a draw. Looking at the other teams relegated over the years there doesn't seem to be a particular trend or pattern. Leeds and Brighton both won their opening 2 games, the only 2 to achieve this is in the years I was reviewing.

We have see 14 wins, 14 defeats, 14 draws in the opening 2 fixtures for the past 7 years! So given this stat i don't think finding easy bets in League 1 on relegated teams is going to be possible!

However teams playing at home on opening day have only lost twice, the latest being Norwich who were beaten 7-1 at home by Colchester, but ended up winning the League that season!

Preston are the only team at home and indeed they are home to Colchester! Preston are clear favourites to win but if you fancy a repeat of the Norwich result Colchester are a nice price!

I will be doing a review of promoted teams to the championship next, hopefully that will give some better trends to follow.

Opening fixtures performance for teams relegated to the championship

Teams being relegated from the Premiership perform much better after being relegated in their opening 2 fixtures than the teams that were promoted. Over the 7 seasons analysed 16 games resulted in sides winning 1 of their opening 2 fixtures, with 7 occurring in the opening games. In total relegated teams won 16, drew 14 and lost 12 of the opening 2 fixtures.

In the opening games we see that there were 7 wins, 9 draws and 5 defeats. Last season only Portsmouth lost, a team that was ravaged in debt and short of playing staff, both Hull and Burnley started with home wins. In the season before all 3 teams (Newcastle, Middlesborough and WBA) all drew on opening day.

In 15 games played by relegated teams at home on opening day only 2 teams have lost, 7 have drawn and 6 have won.

Only 6 games have therefore been played away from home by relegated sides so there is little form to go on, we see 3 defeats, 2 draws and only Watford in 2007/08 have won away on opening day.

This season we see West Ham playing at home to Cardiff. Cardiff have not started away from home for a number of seasons but history then shows 1 away win, 1 away defeat and 1 away draw meaning this is hard to predict. Equally, there are not definate patterns for Hull Vs Blackpool or Derby Vs Birmingham.

Its worth noting however that only 3 teams in the past 3 seasons (so 9 teams) have failed to win one of their opening 2 fixtures, indeed all teams relegated that drew in that period on the opening day went on to win their second fixture.

I will probably steer clear of the relegated teams on opening day and see if I can pick up on the second round of games once the results from week one are known.

Assessing the opening day performance of teams promoted to the English Premiership

The search for helpful statistics continues and today I have been analysing the past 7 seasons, looking at teams being promoted and relegated from the English premiership. My focus was on the first 2 fixtures played, to allow me to assess how teams start in a new League. Before looking at the numbers my impression was that teams coming up would start well as the players and staff would be on a high and fully motivated for life in a higher league, and those teams going down would struggle with life in a lower league where grounds are smaller, pay is smaller and a different style of football is played.

My findings showed that teams being promoted won only 8 of the 21 games played and of that 5 of those were won on the opening day, 5 draws and 11 defeats. We have to take into account that on occasions teams being promoted played each other and therefore these results just balanced themselves out. Last season we saw that only Blackpool won of the promoted sides in a 0-4 win at Wigan. Newcastle and WBA both lost away although they did play Manchester United and Chelsea!

Of teams playing at home on opening day, Wolves lost last season but we have to go back to 2005/06 to find a promoted team losing on opening day at home. That year Sunderland and Wigan both lost, we need to also be aware that Sunderland were also relegated in that season with the lowest points score ever seen on the Premiership of 15 points! There have been 10 home fixtures in the 21 fixtures looked at with 4 wins and 3 draws.

QPR are the only team at home on opening day and will play Bolton. Bolton have a poor away record on opening day, although for the past 5 seasons they have played at home on opening day. Their record is 3 wins 2 draws and 4 defeats on opening day in the past 9 seasons.

The current manager at QPR is Neil Warnock, when he brought Sheffield United up he started at home with a draw. Owen Coyle, the man at Bolton lost last season as Bolton manager and lost away when he brought Burnley up, making Mr Coyle a bad option on opening day!

QPR could be one to take a chance on during the first rounds of fixtures.

In my next blog I will be considering relegated teams in full and seeing if we can find a pattern and a option to go with QPR.


If you would like me to research a specific pattern please get in touch let me know.

Taking the promotion odds

I have now reviewed the leagues and picked out who I think will be winning the various titles. However I have also been looking at the odds for teams to be promoted rather than teams that would win the leagues. As a reminder my teams for titles are

Championship
Leicester and Birmingham
League 1
Preston and Scunthorpe
League 2
Bristol Rovers and Southend

I will be looking to place some trebles on these teams for getting promotion as well.
The prices for these teams are currently available on Bet365 as at todays date.

Birmingham 5/2
Leicester 15/8
Preston 2/1
Scunthorpe 9/2
Bristol Rovers 11/5
Southend 13/2

This market is open until the 6 August 2011. Make sure you get on before then!

To see the review of the Championship, League 1 or League 2 click on the links below
To see the reviews for the leagues click on the links below
League 1
League 2
English Championship

Early Review Of The Premiership for 2011/2012

Now that the management situation has been sorted out at the top of the Premiership we can look at the chances for the top sides for the coming season. Once again Chelsea disposed of a manager for not winning the Champions League and have employed a relative unknown manager from Portugal (is history repeating itself). Andre Villas-Boas takes over at Stamford Bridge after securing the Portugese Super Cup, The League and the Europa League with Porto last term. Mr Villas-Boas becomes the current youngest manager in the Premier League and has a huge job on his hands. He will not have time to settle in, he will be required to win silverware immediately. This is not unusual for Chelsea managers in recent times, however now Chelsea have to compete with Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City making the job even harder than it once was.
Jose Mourinho managed to win the League in his first season, as did Ancelloti, however the other Chelsea managers have all failed.
Since 1992 Manchester United have won 12 championships and only once failed to win at least back to back championships. As they won the League last season the statistics suggest that they could again produce back to back wins. Last season was not see as the perfect season for Manchester United however they won the League by 9 points and got to the Champions League final - not bad for a poor side!
Arsenal once again flattered to deceive and their season collapsed once they lost the Carling Cup Final. For Arsenal to be challengers again they need to spend some money and spend real money on a number of top class players rather than youngsters that can be developed, ultimately get fed up and move on to win silverware elsewhere.

The top clubs have been relatively quiet in the transfer market so far, its been more about who isn't for sale rather than who is on the move. Spurs have rejected speak of Modric leaving, Arsenal the same with Fabregas and Man city insist Tevez is staying. Time will tell whether these players remain at their respective clubs, after Andre Villas-Boas siad in May he and all of his players would be staying at Porto! For Chelseas sake lets hope his is better at football management than seeing into the future!

Liverpool have been spending money buying Jordan Henderson for £16M from Sunderland. I'm still amazed at how much footballers cost! If Henderson is £16M what doe sthat make Fabregas or Modric if measured directly?

Manchester United have captured the signing of long term target Ashley Young and Phil Jones again both players signing for around the £16M mark. I will be watching with interest whether a new goalkeeper is bought at Old Trafford and if so who it is to replace the retiring van der Sar. The retirement of Scholes should not be too much of an inconvenience as he rarely started games in any case. A bigger loss will be Hargreaves as he never delivered after his transfer from Munich.

I expect the Premiership to become a 2 horse race between the Manchester clubs. They have the playing staff and the money to force their way to the top and City could run United close. I will reflect on this in August once the signings are pretty much done but I take Manchester United to finish just ahead of City as was the case this past season. Currently Manchester United are a 7/4 shot and City 3/1.

To see the review of the Championship, League 1 or League 2 click on the links below
To see the reviews for the leagues click on the links below
League 1
League 2
English Championship

Home Win Draw and Away Win Percentage Review

I have spent some time looking around the internet to see what systems are used by punters to try and give themselves an edge against the bookies. Using the stats available to me I have started to analyse % win ratios for the 4 English Leagues. As I always say this data only shows what did happen and not what is going to happen and therefore this should only ever be used as a guide when looking for that next winning bet.

If we look at the past 10 seasons as as whole for all leagues we see something quite interesting, and probably not too surprising to the masses.

We see that the % of home wins far outweighs the % of draws or away wins. Its always interesting to me to look at why this is the case, and to this day I don't fully understand it however its a fact - year on year there is always over 40% of games are won by the home side.

Here is the break down for each league for the past 10 seasons.

The Premier League consistently comes out on top with an even higher average for home wins. So the moral of this story is not to back too many away wins and draws as there aren't that many as a percentage! However if you do find one make sure you have backed it!
So what about days of the week? do we see a different pattern when we look at days of the week?

Here we can see the results as actual games rather than % - the trend follows for a Tuesday in the same vein as a Saturday, the difference is small enough to suggest there is no difference for a midweek game over a weekend game.

I read recently that someone placed 10 bets at the weekend, they selected 2 teams such as Manchester United and Celtic and then added a game to draw. They picked 10 different games to provide a chance of picking up some winning bets. You need approx 3 of the 10 teams to draw in any one week to make a small profit. We see from the chart above that its rare to see the number of draws to be over 30% for any one season so I don't think this tactic would work in the long term. However I was curious to know what return I might have got had i done this last season.

Rather than pick 2 teams I just picked Manchester United as they were the team with the most home wins and I only did the check for weeks where Manchester United were at home. My matches for the draw were all of League 2 - or at least any League 2 game occuring on the same weekend as Manchester United playing at home. What I found was that we had a good start. Infact in Manchester Uniteds 19 home wins, using this system would have paid out in profit on 6 occasions. There would have been 3 occasions where there was no bet and one one occasion no draws in the league corresponding to the home win. so 6 out of 16 is a 37% hit rate, which is slightly higher than our draw model however the net effect at the end of the season was a £117 loss. The reason for picking League 2 was because they had the most draws last season.

So although this plan looks like a good one, finding the teams to draw is not as easy as it looks, even if you take the view that a team has to draw at some point! Now should you get lucky and get 6 or 7 draws in a weekend then the profit is certainly there, but on statistics I don't think this is one to follow in the long term.

Lessons Learnt and Some Interesting Statistics

Whilst we are in the close season we have a good chance to analyse what has gone before us and we can start to make plans for our betting strategies for next season. Of course any statistics that have gone before us won't necessarily reoccur next season however they can act as a guide for us. Finding trends and finding ways to win is all important for increasing our bank balance through the season ahead.

Lets take the Goals Crazy (or Goals Galore) bet - here we need both teams to score to collect on the bet. Normally you will see a price of odds on for this up to evens and in some exceptional circumstances odds against. For arguments sake lets assume the average price is 4/5. So for a £10 stake you will collect £8 + your £10 stake each time this occurs. In the case of Blackpool at home last season this happened in 94.7% of games ie 18 of the 19 home games played by Blackpool. So you would have a profit of £144 had you placed the same bet each time Blackpool played at home. For West Brom this was 78.9% of the time (or 15 out of 19 games) again giving a healthy profit on the season. The best returns for the other Leagues for the past season ranked in the 70% arena so nothing near what Blackpool achieved. Indeed looking at the trending we see that it wasn't until April that Blackpool finally returned a game where both teams didn't score, by then the profit would be good and Blackpool could be forgiven for letting you down on the one occasion!

Another bet that was used quite a lot last season by myself and others commentating around me was for over and under 2.5 goals. There was a view that teams such as Crewe would produce games with over 2.5 goals. The reality however was very different, infact in their 46 games Crewes games only produced over 2.5 goals in 26 of the 46 games a return of 56.5%, Crewe did however manage 91 goals and conceded 56 which is on average above 2.5 however its actuals we need not averages.
When betting on over and under last season the team to follow was Peterborough, they managed over 2.5 goals on 22 out of 23 games which is quite a remarkable feat! Again if you assume a guide price of say 4/5 it gives you a profit around the £170 mark, that doubled with Blackpools goal crazy and all of a sudden we are looking at some nice returns from just 2 teams.

In the premiership we saw Manchester United return 18 wins out of 19, albeit Manchester United will have been very short for many of those fixtures so the returns would have been small, however to have a team to add to a treble to bump the returns up is never a bad thing to have in your pocket!

Looking back through the records its hard to find anything coming close to what Blackpool and Peterborough achieved last season so finding the right team to follow will be very hard next season.

As I find more interesting stats i will post there here for you as we move closer to the August 2011 kickoff.

As a foot note I hear that Porto are about to start their search for a new manager as Andre Villas-Boas has resigned and is currently in London talking to Chelsea. Once that move is completed I will do my review of the Premiership as all of the title contenders will by then have their managers in place. If Andre does take over at Stamford Bridge he will become the youngest manager in the Premier League at aged 33! Quite a remarkable move I think!

Early review of English Championship

Following the release of the fixture list on Friday we can now increase our excitement towards the new season just another notch!

Today I will turn my attention to the Championship and look to see if I can find a couple of teams that might be involved in the race for the top spot!

Firstly I will consider the stats for the past few seasons. Last season QPR cam to the front of the pack, boosted by the enigmatic Niel Warnock and the money from the Italian motorsport kings. Despite some nervy moments concerning court cases QPR ended up picking up the league and head to the premiership. QPR finished 14th the previous season, this was the lowest position for a team winning the league in the next season.

Before QPR the previous 6 seasons has seen a team win after either being relegated or failing in the play offs! Using this theory we only have 6 teams that statistically will win the league. That should make things much easier for us knowing this fact! Firstly we need to consider whether there are any sides that meet the QPR profile - ie up and coming with lots of money. Leicester City match the profile and also match the ambition. Leicester are owned by a Thai consortium and managed by the ex England manager Sven Goran Eriksson. Leicester had a reasonable second half to the season and seem all set to have a tilt at premiership football in the near future. The question will be do Leicester have the buying power of the relegated teams? Specifically West Ham and Birmingham? The bookies seem to think that they can and have Leicester as the 6/1 favorites. For me, its still too early to tell whether the money will come in big enough chunks to push Leicester up to the top spot.

More likely are the chances of Birmingham. Here we have a team that only got relegated on goal difference and should have been safe by the end of April. Once the League cup was won in amazing circumstances against Arsenal the team seemed to lose sight of the main focus of avoiding relegation. The resignation of Big Ek last week as he created a move to Aston Villa has not gone down well in either fanbase, however this creates a new opportunity for Birmingham. The last 2 times Birmingham were relegated they got promoted the following season, however they didn't finish as champions. We will need to see who the manager will be before we can decide whether to back Birmingham for the champions spot, so this is a wait and see!

West Ham are probably the big name to arrive in the Championship this season. They have had a dreadful couple of years and will be desperate to get up at the first attempt. They have appointed Sam Allardyce as their new manager. I think this is a shrewd move as Big Sam is a great motivator, and is able to get the best our of players. He also has some very loyal players and Kevin Nolan has already moved across to join the revolution at West Ham. I expect West Ham to go very close assuming there isn't too much interference from the West Ham board. If they get off to a good start I expect West Ham to run away and win this league comfortably. This is a very competitive league but as Newcastle showed a couple of years back, if you can keep the majority of your premier league squad together and have a good manager at the helm it possible to do well at this level.

Blackpool were the third side relegated from the premiership. They were a joy to watch and I hope that Ian Holloway can keep the team together and have another crack at the promotion race, it would be great to see them go up again. The problem facing Holloway is the fact that teams like Swindon,Crystal Palace, Burnley, Hull and until this year Norwich have all tasted premier league wine but have never managed to get back again.

As I said at the beginning the league winnner is expected to come from the relegated clubs or from the clubs losing in the playoffs.

Cardiff have failed in the playoffs for the past 2 seasons and have installed Malky Mackay as their new manager - stripping Watford of a manager in the process! Cardiff will again go close and maybe even get promotion this time around. Reading had an amazing last 1/4 of the season ending with a play off final place against Swansea. They lost that game as we know so need to regroup ready for next season. They are likely to lose 25 goal machine Shane Long so will need to find someone else that can get the goals needed. The manager Brian McDermott is one to be admired and again I don't think Reading will be too far away.

Finally Nottingham Forest were beaten by Swansea in the play off semi final. Forest have since sacked their manager and have appointed Steve McClaren as their replacement. McClaren is a proven manager and has achieved great things in his time abroad and before that at Middlesborough and as assistant to Sir Alex Ferguson. He didn't have a great time as England manager, but then no one seems to do well there! McClaren will do a good job on a limited budget but I don't think it will be enough to win the league, perhaps the playoffs is a more realistic outcome again for Forest.

I will hold judgement on my selections here as there is a lot to work out however, the winner will be one of Leicester, West Ham, Reading or Cardiff.

To see the review of League 1 or League 2 click on the links below
To see the reviews for the leagues click on the links below
League 1
League 2

English Football Fixture Lists 2011/2012 Released

So at last, it seems so long since we had any fixtures to look at! The English football calendar is now in front of us! The homework starts today as we look for those games where we can collect some money off the bookies!

I will be adding the fixtures into my stats database so that i can start analysing the first games as soon as possible. Clearly current form will pay no part of the early season games so I will be looking at previous seasons and early season trends.

Having reviewed league 1 and league 2 already I thought I would highlight those teams I have tipped to go well next term and quickly look at their early season fixtures.

In League 2 Bristol Rovers will start away at AFC Wimbledon - this is an interesting game as these teams could not have finished further apart last season. Bristol Rovers were relegated and Wimbledon promoted via the play offs! It will be an interesting contest and will show whether the promoted club has strengthened and whether Rovers can start on a high note after a poor season last term. The people who create the fixture lists have maybe been a little unkind serving up Wimbledon with 3 of the relegated clubs in their opening 3 fixtures!

My other team to watch in league 2 are Southend United, they start at home to Hereford who had a dreadful start to last seasons campaign. In the event Hereford finished comfortably in mid table. Southend did beat Hereford in March 4-0 so probably feel it should be a good start for them.

In League 1 my tips are Preston and Scunthorpe, both relegated from the championship last time around. Preston will play Colchester and Scunthorpe will play newly promoted Wycombe.

A more detailed look at the fixtures will come in good time for the new season, now the hard work begins!

To see the reviews for the leagues click on the links below
League 1
League 2

Promotion Statistics League 1 and League 2

The following table shows the winners of League 1 and League 2 over the past 10 seasons. Here I'm looking at their finishing position the season before to see if there are any patterns.

Year League 1 Winner Previous Year Position
Season 2010/11 Brighton 13th
Season 2009/10 Norwich City Relegated 22nd from Championship
Season 2008/09 Leicester City Relegated 22nd from Championship
Season 2007/08 Swansea City 7th
Season 2006/07 Scunthorpe United 12th
Season 2005/06 Southend United Promoted Via League 2 Playoff
Season 2004/05 Luton Town 10th
Season 2003/04 Plymouth Argyle 8th
Season 2002/03 Wigan Athletic 10th

Year League 2 Winner Previous Year Position
Season 2010/11 Chesterfield 8th
Season 2009/10 Notts County 21st
Season 2008/09 Brentford 14th
Season 2007/08 MK Dons 4th
Season 2006/07 Walsall Relegated 24th from League 1
Season 2005/06 Carlisle United Winners of Conference Playoffs
Season 2004/05 Yeovil Town 8th
Season 2003/04 Doncaster Rovers Winners of Conference Playoffs
Season 2002/03 Rushden & Diamonds 6th

We can see from the stats above that there is no real pattern to the teams that won the league. However in League 1 we can see that teams winning the League are either relegated teams or teams on the up. 2 of the promoted teams in the past 4 seasons will play in the premiership next season the other 2 are amongst the front runners for promotion next season.

More stats to follow on the Championship and the Premiership.

To read my thoughts on the race for League 1 click here


To read my thoughts on the race for League 2 click here

Early Tips For English League 1 2011/2012

Before I delve into League 1 for the coming season a quick update for League 2. This week Torquay United appointed Martin Ling as their new manager to replace the outgoing success story that is Paul Buckle. see here for details of my league 2 review.
Martin Ling was the manager of Cambridge up until 1 February this year when he was sacked following a dreadful run of 4 straight defeats after being given the dreaded vote of confidence. Martin doesn't meet the profile of a manager that will win League 2 next season so my tips on League 2 remain unaltered.

League 1 has become a very interesting league over the past years with many ex premiership teams falling into this league. I'm not sure why this is happening, perhaps its due to the amount of money these clubs lose when they fall out of the premiership and need to rebuild. Recently we have seen Manchester City, Leeds United, Leicester City, Nottingham Forest and Southampton join this league but eventually get out again. Manchester City as we know are a champions league outfit! This league therefore has become very competitive so is very hard to get out of as the league still has the likes of Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday in it. Joining them from the championship are Sheffield United, Scunthorpe United and Preston North End - all 3 will be keen to make the stay as short as possible. It's a massive fall from grace for Sheffield United who finished 8th in the 09/10 season and 3rd the season before! Oh how things could have been so different! Joining these sides from League 2 are Chesterfield, Bury and Stevenage, all 3 have done well to get promoted but I don't think any of these sides will trouble the very top of League 1. History shows us that jumping from League 2 to the championship in consecutive seasons is not out of the question as Peterborough did it between 06/07 when they finished second in league 2 and the second in 07/08 in league 1, but they didn't win the league. Southend did manage the feat in having won the league 2 play offs in 04/05 and then winning the league 1 in 05/06 - so its not beyond teams to do it but I feel there are too many big sides this season that will stop this from happening.

The last team to be relegated and win the league title were Norwich City in 2009/10, they lost their opening game 7-1 to Colchester but quickly turned things around and have infact bounced straight up into the premiership! In 2008/09 again a team being relegated jumped straight back again, this time it was Leicester City. So it looks like those with money can do well at this level and get out of the league. This seasons winners were Brighton, here is a team on the up, moving into a new stadium and doing well.

So for League 1 i'm looking for a well organised club with money to spend at this level. Preston are under the stewardship of Phil Brown ex-manager of Hull City. He has always done well at his clubs and is a man to motivate a team to get results. He kept Hull in the premiership for longer than perhaps they had the ability for on paper so in my eyes he knows what to do! His backroom staff include David Unsworth and Brian Horton, again 2 great football brains.

Over in Sheffield, United have appointed Danny Wilson into the managers seat. This guy has extensive experience in these leagues, he even manged Sheffield Wednesday! Go explain that to the Aston Villa faithful today!!!!

The question is do Sheffield United have any money to help Mr Wilson on his way. I think Sheffield will go well but I think they will just fall short of winning the league, could have a strong play off shout.

Finally we have Scunthorpe. This team were last in this league in 08/09 when the got promoted via the play offs after being relegated the previous season. They have been a bit of a yoyo club in recent history having won League 1 in 06/07. I don't see them as a side to run away with League 1 so will discount them as well.

Of the teams in the league from last season we have Huddersfield, Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday. Huddersfield lost the play off final, Charlton had a dismal season and Sheffield Wednesday avoided going out of business! Huddersfield finished 3rd and lost the play off final to Peterborough, in the last 10 years the team finishing third and not being promoted has never gone on the following season to win the league!

A look at the odds for next season shows us that Sheffield Wednesday are favorites for the title at 5/1. I see this as a bit odd as there is no full confirmation of large investment being pumped into the club but maybe I'm not aware of something!

We can see Preston at 13/2 third favorites behind Huddersfield at 11/2. For me, I'm a fan of Phil Brown and Preston, I see them going well and having a good season, he did well at the end of last season when there was little chance of survival so Mr Brown has had time in the job on the field so is probably best placed of the relegated teams to win the league.

I will keep an eye on Scunthorpe in the early days at 20/1 as they could surprise a few as they are not the most fashionable club in this league.

My next review will be on the championship in the coming days.

Early 2011/2012 English League 2 Winner Thoughts

Although its only mid June focus has already turned to next season for all the football clubs in all of the leagues! I am now looking forward to the new season, my research into possible league winners has begun and I have some early thoughts on what might happen next season.

This entry covers League 2.

Anyone who read the blog in January will be aware that I picked the 4 teams that won the 4 main leagues in England. You could say that this wasn't a difficult thing to do given at the time all of the clubs were top of their respective leagues, however it was a winning bet and thats all that ultimately matters.

Firstly I would like to just explain how my thought process works when looking for long range bets. The first thing to look for in my view is a club that is stable, well run and has a manager that has experience in the league they are in. I don't believe the best premier league managers make the best league 2 managers and vice versa. Some managers have been in certain leagues for many years and have extremely good knowledge of those leagues, the clubs and the players around them. The manager however needs a club to be stable and properly financed. In many cases we can look for one of the clubs that was relegated the previous season to get immediately promoted again and equally we can consider forward looking clubs that get successive promotions.

When looking for a team that will win a League we need to consider those teams that ended in the play off positions, the League 1 relegated clubs and the clubs coming up from the Conference, plus forward thinking teams that are already in League 2. The early favorites for the League title are the run away winners of the Conference Crawley Town. Crawley won the Conference by 15 points last season, massive investment has pushed the club into the league and the spending is continuing already. The Cheltenham chairman recently commented that one of his players was signed by Crawley and the deal was something that most League 1 teams could not afford. I feel at 3/1 this is a ridiculous price as no club has ever won the conference and then immediately won League 2. However Stevenage won the conference last year and then won th eLeague 2 playoff this year. Back to back league titles is a massive ask and something I believe is just beyond Crawley. Of the teams in the play offs that didn't get promoted I have no belief that any of those clubs could win the League outright. Shrewsbury, Accrington and Torquay are the teams and the current situation with these teams are; Shrewsbury made the play offs 3 times in the past 5 seasons but don't ever look like League winners. Their chairman is determined to get promotion but this isn't necessarily as League winners. On the positive side Shrewsbury have Graham Turner as their manager, a man with massive experience at this level having managed Hereford for 14 years. Torquay were the losing finalists in the playoff final against Stevenage. They got to the playoffs by finishing on the same points as Gillingham but having a better goal difference. However Torquay have lost their experienced manager Paul Buckle to Bristol Rovers so as they don't have a manager they cannot be considered as yet for the League title. Accrington lost to Stevenage in the playoffs however every player in their team are out of contract this summer. Accrington have a lot of work to do this summer to keep and build on their playing staff from the past season so again this side cannot be considered for a long term bet.

Now for the teams being relegated, Plymouth have a dire need to restructure the club and come out of administration. It looks likely that this will happen next week however there is still a massive amount of work for Peter Risdale and Peter Reid to do. I'm sure that they will sort out the mess at the Pilgrims however it might take a season to get ready for a tilt at promotion. Swindon finished bottom of the pile and were last in this league in the 2006/07 season, that year they finished 3rd and jumped up to League 1. They have the history to make a quick return and have a new manager in the very professional Paulo Di Canio. This is Di Canios first appointment in English football and it will be interesting to see how they get on. Given this lack of experience I cannot see this side winning the league, however with his connections in football around the world I'm sure Di Canio will have a successful season. Dagenham ended their short time in League 1 with a 5-0 defeat at eventual League 1 playoff winners Peterborough. Dagenham only missed out on survival by 1 point but that's all it takes in this world to be a survivor or a relegated side. They have already released 4 players as they look to rebuild for next season. Finally we have Bristol Rovers, last seen in League 2 in 2006/07 season when they finished 6th and went on to win the playoffs. They are in the market for a new stadium and recently made Paul Buckle their new manager. I believe that this is a good move for Mr Buckle (albeit I'm a Torquay fan) as he can hopefully have more resources to him than he had at Torquay or Exeter.

Of the teams that didn;t make the playoffs but were in League 2 last season, Gillingham are the only side I feel have the ability to possibly be involved in any title shake up. However they have lost out on a couple of key signings already so may not be as strong as they might have hoped.

So its Bristol Rovers for me, Mr Buckle clearly knows what is needed to get teams promoted and keep teams from relegation and I feel that Rovers are the team at this time to consider in any preseason flutter. Given their price of 12/1 I see this as realistic value given they meet my criteria for a promotion hunting club. As to whether they can get that top spot we will have to wait and see but I think Mr Buckle will get them close.

A further edit to this post. I have analysed how often a team gets relegated to League 2 and then wins the league the following season. In the past 10 seasons this has happened only once. On that occasion Hartlepool, Walsall, MK Dons and Swindon were all relegated and Walsall won the League the following season. Interestingly enough Hartlepool finished second, Swindon third and MK Dons 4th! MK Dons did fail in the playoffs but won the league the following season. Twice a team has won in their second season after relegation, MK Dons as per the above and Brentford. For this reason I need to also consider Southend as possibles as they fit this profile.
Southend are under the stewardship of Paul Sturrock (Luggy) who has seen and done it these leagues with Plymouth. Southend finished in mid table this season with 61 points, the season before Brentford won the league they had 59 points - so the profile is very similar indeed. Southend have had promotion up and down the leagues so are well versed in this situation as a club. At 25/1 they must be given some consideration.

Next week I will review League 1. If you have any comments on this please add them below.

To read my thoughts on the race for League 1 click here

Final weekend for the English League

As we approach the end of the football season (this weekend being the end for the regular season in the football league) it’s time to reflect on the experiment that was the reason for the blog!
First up we had to move sites due to the amount of traffic we had around the New Year causing our hosts to want to charge us for that traffic!
At the turn of the year I blogged my end of season predictions 18/1 for Man United to win the Premiership, QPR to win the Championship, Brighton to win League 1 and Chesterfield to win League 2. That looks like coming in pending the league issues surrounding QPR. Hopefully it will payout, come the end of next week when Man United collect their 19th Premiership.
On the 3rd of December I suggested taking the 9/2 on Plymouth to be relegated. Due to their 10 point deduction in February this prediction promptly paid out last week. Hopefully Plymouth can find a new owner sooner rather than later and hopefully this time next year we will be talking about promotion?
So I had 2 good long range predictions come good (pending QPR), on the weekly front I had mixed fortunes, I believe I had 4 out of 4 on 2 occasions this season which is a bit disappointing, other bets paid on 2 out of 4 and 3 out of 4 meaning I have pretty much broken even on the weekend bets. I don’t think that’s overly impressive but equally it’s been a lot of fun and an interesting test. Clearly if Man United win the Premiership and QPR are given a reprieve then it will certainly be a winning season.
So to this weekends selections start in the Championship with relegated Scunthorpe United. Expect to see Scunthorpe near the top of League 1 next season, they entertain Portsmouth who have done well after a poor start to the season. I think both teams will sign off with a goal so will jump on the 4/6 for both teams to score. Its a meaningless game for both so I expect this to be open and full of action.
2 other teams that have nothing to play for are Leicester and Ipswich, they meet after both flattering to deceive a month or so ago when they were being tipped for possible playoff contention. Again I cannot pick a winner but do expect both to show their defensive issues and concede. In 68% of games this season Leicester have scored and conceded at home and on Ipswich they have scored and conceded on 54.5% of games. At 3 / 4 this is my second selection.
Everything is pretty much sorted in League 1 except for Dagenham and Walsall fans. I take Dagenham to go down as they are away at playoff side Peterborough. In mid table we find Carlisle, they have won 9 at home this season and entertain Yeovil. Another lesson for the season was the advice of my learned friend who told me back home teams again teams travelling long distances! I will take this advice and go for Carlisle to beat Yeovil! Carlisle are available at Evens.
Finally in League 2 I am looking at Stevenage at home to Bury. Bury could win the League if they win and Chesterfield lose at home to Gillingham. However, Stevenage can guarantee a playoff slot if they beat Bury. If Gillingham get a better result that Stevenage then they would be in the playoffs so it’s all rather tight! I expect Stevenage to beat Bury and take a playoff slot, I’m also hoping Torquay get something at Rotherham so that they also make the playoffs! Its Stevenage at 11/10 for me!
My Yankee this week will pay £59 and the accumulator would pay £122.50.
Finally well done to Rochdale, they have had a fine first season in League 1! They won some good away games at long prices for me so it’s why I pick them out!

Check out details for next season here
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html

Make or Break Time For Many Clubs

We have reached that point in the season when its make or break time for many. A defeat could mathematically rule teams out of the promotion or play off fight, a win could prounce themselves as the late challengers. At the foot of the tables it the same, a defeat could end hopes of survival, a win couls set up a nerve wrecking end to the season.

The leagues are almost wrapped up now, Man United seem set for another Premier League crown, QPR look likely winners of the Championship. The first team to be promoted this season are Brighton, again they look solid to take the League 1 crown and Chesterfield sit handily in League 2. I can confirm that those 4 teams were available as an accumulator of 18/1 on New Years day so I'm pretty hopeful of collecting on that bet!

I am currently in the process of building a stats database, hopefully it will be perfected for the start of next season, it allows me to analyse all league matches since 2002/03 for all 4 leagues. It provides a mass of stats at the touch of a button so I can see current form, head to head form, goals scored for that all important goal crazy bet!

Quickly looking at the Stats I see that Burton are in real danger now of going down from League 2. They have lost their last 4 games and drew the other of 5 away 0-0 at Stockport! This shows no form at all. At home things aren't much better, 1 win and 2 draws in 5 including that 1-5 defeat to Barnet a couple of weeks ago. Barnet themselves have managed 2 away wins in 5 and drawn 1 and at home they have won 2 and drawn 2, they also played teams such as Crewe, Chesterfield and Lincoln without defeat. Burton are available at 9/4 to go down, in a 2 horse race where Burton only have 1 game in hand is a very interesting proposition. Barnet were galvanised by Martin Allen for a couple of weeks but he has since moved on to Notts County. I might bet half a stake on Burton to go down at that price.

In League 1 its almost certain that Plymouth will be leaving, hopefully as a relegated club and not one that is in liquidation. I understand that Peter Risdale is on Talksport this morning so that will make an interesting listen. It seems the bookies feel that Swindon and Bristol Rovers will also fall down a league leaving 1 place left to fight for with Notts County, Dagenham & Redbridge and Walsall the likely 3 teams attempting to avoid that position. Walsall are favourites to drop of those 3, althogh Notts County occupy the slot at present but have recently brought in the fabled Martin Allen to sort them out! It could be too late and at 6/5 maybe a double with Burton is a possible bet!

So to the weekend selections, I had some restbite last week with a second in the Grand National but I have nothing to back me up thyis week so hopefully the new stats application will start to payback the hours I have sunk into it!

First into the hotseat this week are Charlton and Huddersfield. Charlton were recharged under Chris Powell earlier in the season but things have gon a bit flat, they have fallen out of contention for a playoff birth and find themselves stranded in mid table. Their home form is not great although they did win last timeo ut against Orient 3-1 which eneded a run of 5 games at home without a win. Huddersfield on the other hand are unbeaten away in tehir last 10 games a run that stretches back to defeat at Southampton in December. Huddersfield lie in 3rd place on goal difference to second placed Southampton. I always feel at this time of the year its better to bet on the teams with something to play for rather than the ones with nothing to look forward to other than the summer break!
Huddersfield to win 5/4.

Staying in League 1 we have surprise package Rochdale. Ever since Rochdale won away at Southampton back at the start of the season I have been watching them carefully. This week they beat Southampton at home at a price of 11/4 which was most welcome, and now have a shot at the play offs. They are at home to Cup Finalists Brentford, another team with little hope of bridging the gap to the play off picture. Brentford have only won 2 away games in 10 and both of those wins came at clubs stranded in the middle of the league. Rochdale have won 3 of their last 4, drawing the other 2-2 with high flyers Brighton. Rochdale have had a great run in their first season in League 1 and hopefully they can go on and get a play off slot.
4/5 Rochdale home win.

In the Championship Leeds welcome Watford to Elland Road. Watford were play off contenders for some of the season but have slipped south in recent weeks. Leeds have been on the edge of things for most of the season and currently occupy the last slot, a position they will be keen not to give up. Leeds are high scorers at home, they drew 0-0 with Ipswich recently but also had wins of 4-1 and 5-2 and draws of 2-2 and 3-3 to go with the 0-0! Watford have won once away in 5, losing the last 2 and drawing the others 1-1. I think its a day for Leeds to push on to the play offs so its Leeds to win

4/6 Leeds.

Finally in League 2 Torquay play Port Vale. Torquay are pushing hard for a play off spot and have won their last 4 games, before that they drew with Rotherham. In that time they have only conceded 1 goal. Port Vale however have lost their last 2 away games to 0 and at home have only won once in 5. So Port Vale, another team that were looking likely promotion candidates are slowly slipping to a position of neither up nor down!
5/6 for Torquay to keep the pressure on at the top of the play off picture.

Some other interesting options for the weekend - Scunthorpe won at home to QPR last week (against my bet) at odds of 6/1. This week they go to Crystal Palace, Scunthorpe have only scored once in 10 away games losing them all! I was tempted by Scunthorpe but at 100/30 the price was a bit short for me!
In the Premiership Birmingham play Sunderland. The Black Cats were once looking for a Europa Cup place but since selling Darren Bent haven't had anything to cheer! Sunderland havent won since beating Blackppol away on 22 January! They have to break that run at some point and at 11/4 it might be tomorrow!

The yankee pays £60 and the accumulator will pay £123 or thereabouts!

check out details for next season here
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html

So its all about the language we use!

I wonder who got the most out of the week gone by. The FA for charging Rooney for swearing down a tv camera, Rooney for swearing down a tv camera or the papers for reporting on the whole thing. My view? he shouldn't have done it, he did do it, someone will do it again and as long as they get charged as well I will be happy. I don't as I have said in the past think the football world has any respect for the paying public and this proves my point. Its not ok to do what he did, his manager and his club back Rooney and the FA did what they could but its too little and its too late.

Tomorrow sees the annual renewal of the Grand National. Last year we saw the greatest jockey AP McCoy win the race for the first time, it was interesting from a betting standpoint as his mount was backed down from 20-1 to 10-1 at the off! Some gamble and it paid off! This year he goes for an amazing double, the like of which we haven't seen since Red Rum. Again he has been backed down from 16-1 to 10-1 and is likely to go off as the single figured favourite once the housewives tuck into it tomorrow! he has a big chance and will have some of my money riding with him!

To the football for this week, rather than look at the prices I'm purely looking at who I think will win and not be put off by odds. Its a change in tactic to see whether I get unduly influenced by price. I'm also picking one game from each league.

Starting in the premiership we have Blackburn and Birmingham. 2 teams fighting at the wrong end of the table, Birmingham have the Carling Cup safely tucked away but need to get some points to retain their premiership status. I don't like what is happening at Blackburn and still feel they could go down, they lost at Birmingham early in the season but alot has changed since then. Blackburn have drawn their last 2 games, the 0-0 at Arsenal will be seen as a point gained, I expect this to be close again and I think the draw is the most sensible course of action.

Blackburn Vs Birmingham - Draw

On to the Championship where run away leaders QPR seem to just keep on winning!! Its top playing away at bottom (Scunthorpe Vs QPR) and I can only see one result. Its QPR all the way for me and soon they will be celebrating promotion. Scunthorpe have not won since the 5th March and havent even scored since the 8 March. QPR haven't lost since the 8th March and haven't let a goal in over the past 2 games.

QPR to win away for me.

In League 1 we have a number of big games at both ends of the table. At the bottom Plymouth are at home to Walsall, its a long way to survival for Plymouth now but a win against Walsall will keep the locals dreaming of a miracle. Walsall haven't won away since they beat Carlisle in February, Plymouth havn't won at home since 8th March! Its a must win for both teams so I see it being an open game. I expect both teams to score but cannot suggest what the result might be! I'll go goal crazy on this game. Good luck to Plymouth I hope they get sorted!

Goal Crazy Plymouth Vs Walsall

Finally in the League 2 we have Bradford and Torquay. Bradford have changed their manager recently and Torquay are kicking on to try and get a play off place. This game will once again produce goals and I see both teams scoring. Both teams kept a clean sheet last time out and rarely at this level do teams constantly keep clean sheets.

Goal crazy Bardford vs Torquay


the £1 Yankee pays £72!

Enjoy the weekend and the Grand National!
check out details for next season
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html

Time for the run in!

The start of April always brings with it the tim eof year when things get a bit more serious in the football world. Those teams trying to get out of their league, those trying to stay in their league and those trying for the Premier League title.
As I look at my bet from 1 January (18/1) on Man U , QPR, Brighton and Chesterfield I sit in the comfort that 3 of the 4 look certain to win their leagues. Man U are the ones in doubt as the premier league this year has been somewhat upside down!

For those attempting to get out of trouble, I fear for Preston and Scunthorpe in the Championship, Plymouth in League 1 (despite a bet at 9/2 for them to go down) and almost dead and buried already Barnet and Stockport.

Again the premiership is fairly wide open although Balckburn have the worst form of any team in the League and at 2/1 to go down is the stand out bet of the weekend.

Turning to the matches this weekend my selections are as follows.

Yeovil and Bristol Rovers are scrapping for survival, Yeovil have won their last 3 games 2 of those away at Exeter 2-3 and at Orient 1-5. Bristol are stuck in the bottom 4 and I think if Yeovil win on Saturday that should just about be enough for them so will go out with extra incentives.
10/11 for Yeovil to win.

Barnet look like they are dead and buried and tomorrow could see the start of the end for them. They are 5 points behind Burton and have played 3 games more. Tomorrow Burton host Barnet for the biggest 6 pointer of both teams season. I expect Burton to keep up their good home form and take this one. As a foot note I hope the appointment of Martin Allen helps both Martin and Barnet and I hope they both make a swift return to the League 2 if they do eventually go down.

At 23/20 its too big to miss.

Runaway leaders in league 2 are Chesterfield. Chesterfield recently drew 2-2 at Barnet so are due a return to winning ways. Port Vale sit on the edge of the playoff picture but I doubt they will remain there after tomorrow.
At 5/6 chesterfield are for me.

Finally Exeter host Dagenham. Anyone that has followed my blog this year will know that Exeter are one of my "go to" teams when I am looking for a win. I have had reasonable success with Exeter this season, they have won on 8 occasions at home this year and should see a Dagenham team that are another team languising towards the wrong end of the table. Dagenham could end up at the end of the season being the beneficiaries of Plymouths 10 point deduction but will need a few more points for that to happen. I dont think these will come at Exeter so I again go for Exeter to win.

5/4 is a big price for this home banker!

On a foot note, i read this week that if you had laid £100 against Tony McCoy on all of his horses that were 4/1 or shorter for the past 4 years you would now have £30,000!!!!

its an interesting stat but its 4 years late!

Good luck with your weekend fixture selection.

The £1 yankee pays £75, the £10 accumulator will net just shy of £170.

International Weekend Is Back

Its been a fairly quiet week in the build up to the International fixtures. The main talking point seems to revolve around the 2 captains of England and Wales. One a young guy that has been out for 16 months and doesn't hold down a first team place, the other an ex captain reinstated as England has no one else! As an England fan I don't believe its important who is captain, for me the 11 on the pitch and the formation is the key to success! No doubt John Terry will attempt to make money from his new position as he did last time but I guess the players to replace him are almost non existent! However another fact that you might be interested in... this could be the first time both Lampard and Gerrard are missing (not through injury) from the starting line up since the World Cup semi final defeat against Brazil in 2002! Since then one, the other or both when fit has played!

The betting front has also been quiet and another poor treble last week didn't help! However yesterday I backed India to beat Australia and today when wickets started to fall I managed to get New Zealand at Evens to beat South Africa! So for a change this week I will be picking bets from different sports.

First up I'm going for Sri Lanka to beat England in the cricket, its looks like the Group of qualifiers from Sri Lankas group is much stronger than the England group and thus expect Sri Lanka to proceed. Yardy has set the tone by being depressed before England have been beaten and returned home already! Sri Lanka are 1/2 to beat England.

Over in Wales I do expect England to win and to win comfortably, Wales will miss Bale on the wing and should be able to put away a weak Wales team. England are 2/5 to win this game, for me this is a bit short so I'm opting for over 2.5 goals at Evens. I expect England to score at least twice and can also see Wales scoring. So assuming 3 or more goals should see me right!

Finally in League 1 Brighton and playing at home to Swindon. Brighton are in great form and steaming their way to the League 1 title, Swindon are fighting for their lives in the bottom reaches of the league. Brighton as expected are short favourites at 4/9. This is the right price for me for my treble this week!

the £10 treble will return £43 which will cover my loses for the last couple of weeks!