As we approach the end of the football season (this weekend being the end for the regular season in the football league) it’s time to reflect on the experiment that was the reason for the blog!
First up we had to move sites due to the amount of traffic we had around the New Year causing our hosts to want to charge us for that traffic!
At the turn of the year I blogged my end of season predictions 18/1 for Man United to win the Premiership, QPR to win the Championship, Brighton to win League 1 and Chesterfield to win League 2. That looks like coming in pending the league issues surrounding QPR. Hopefully it will payout, come the end of next week when Man United collect their 19th Premiership.
On the 3rd of December I suggested taking the 9/2 on Plymouth to be relegated. Due to their 10 point deduction in February this prediction promptly paid out last week. Hopefully Plymouth can find a new owner sooner rather than later and hopefully this time next year we will be talking about promotion?
So I had 2 good long range predictions come good (pending QPR), on the weekly front I had mixed fortunes, I believe I had 4 out of 4 on 2 occasions this season which is a bit disappointing, other bets paid on 2 out of 4 and 3 out of 4 meaning I have pretty much broken even on the weekend bets. I don’t think that’s overly impressive but equally it’s been a lot of fun and an interesting test. Clearly if Man United win the Premiership and QPR are given a reprieve then it will certainly be a winning season.
So to this weekends selections start in the Championship with relegated Scunthorpe United. Expect to see Scunthorpe near the top of League 1 next season, they entertain Portsmouth who have done well after a poor start to the season. I think both teams will sign off with a goal so will jump on the 4/6 for both teams to score. Its a meaningless game for both so I expect this to be open and full of action.
2 other teams that have nothing to play for are Leicester and Ipswich, they meet after both flattering to deceive a month or so ago when they were being tipped for possible playoff contention. Again I cannot pick a winner but do expect both to show their defensive issues and concede. In 68% of games this season Leicester have scored and conceded at home and on Ipswich they have scored and conceded on 54.5% of games. At 3 / 4 this is my second selection.
Everything is pretty much sorted in League 1 except for Dagenham and Walsall fans. I take Dagenham to go down as they are away at playoff side Peterborough. In mid table we find Carlisle, they have won 9 at home this season and entertain Yeovil. Another lesson for the season was the advice of my learned friend who told me back home teams again teams travelling long distances! I will take this advice and go for Carlisle to beat Yeovil! Carlisle are available at Evens.
Finally in League 2 I am looking at Stevenage at home to Bury. Bury could win the League if they win and Chesterfield lose at home to Gillingham. However, Stevenage can guarantee a playoff slot if they beat Bury. If Gillingham get a better result that Stevenage then they would be in the playoffs so it’s all rather tight! I expect Stevenage to beat Bury and take a playoff slot, I’m also hoping Torquay get something at Rotherham so that they also make the playoffs! Its Stevenage at 11/10 for me!
My Yankee this week will pay £59 and the accumulator would pay £122.50.
Finally well done to Rochdale, they have had a fine first season in League 1! They won some good away games at long prices for me so it’s why I pick them out!
Check out details for next season here
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
Well it certainly doesn’t seem like 9 months ago that the experiment started Martin. I am still not quite sure that the results are conclusive, however I think it does demonstrate that despite the wealth of statistics on offer, it is particularly difficult to consistently pick 4 out of 4 every week. As you say, there have been many weekends of intense frustration and high excitement and jubilation though!
ReplyDeleteBefore this weekend, I managed this feat fou
r times, the biggest win being £72.11 on the weekend of the 5th March 2011. For the record, I achieved 3 out of 4 on seven other occasions to keep the kitty ticking over. The final result of my experiment is that I too have broken even – in fact, as I place this weekends Yankee, I have been left with a tidy profit of 12p!!
The goals crazy option was probably my most successful bet, however favoured winning teams also included Crewe, Rotherham, Burnley and Peterborough. This last weekend though, I have gone for the following:
Reading v Derby – home win 8/13
History tells us that Reading have won 12 of the 14 encounters at home to Derby – a resounding 85% of the fixtures. Their recent home for, save for the last outing, has been imperious and I simply cannot see inconsistent Derby challenging in this encounter – home win. Note this fixture kicks-off at 12.45pm!!!
Colchester v Bristol Rovers – home win 8/11
Colchester are unbeaten in their last four home games and face a Rovers side who have been all but relegated. With nothing but pride to play for, it seems a tough ask for Rovers to travel the width of the country and produce another good away performance of the like which has recently seem them take the spoils at Yeovil and Notts County. Another home win.
Tranmere v Swindon – home win 8/11
Relegated Swindon have not won at Prenton Park since 2003 and have had a disastrous season, whilst the form of their opponents has seen them score seven without reply in their last two fixtures. I think I am right in saying that Swindon have gone 24 games without a win, so unless Tranmere play their youth team, the home win seems the obvious choice here!
Bradford v Crewe – home win 13/10
Both sides are stuck in mid-table after mediocre seasons, but the Bradford boast a good record at home and Crewe, for all their goal scoring exploits this season, have only won four times on their travels. I reckon there is a bit of value to be had here, so I am going for the home win again, although I fully expect an end of season bore draw to possibly be more likely!
The £1 Yankee will pay out £55.83 for these four home wins. Roll on next seasons experiment.
Note to oneself – never, ever, bet on Wycombe again. They will always let you down.....!