Tuesday, 21 June 2011

Lessons Learnt and Some Interesting Statistics

Whilst we are in the close season we have a good chance to analyse what has gone before us and we can start to make plans for our betting strategies for next season. Of course any statistics that have gone before us won't necessarily reoccur next season however they can act as a guide for us. Finding trends and finding ways to win is all important for increasing our bank balance through the season ahead.

Lets take the Goals Crazy (or Goals Galore) bet - here we need both teams to score to collect on the bet. Normally you will see a price of odds on for this up to evens and in some exceptional circumstances odds against. For arguments sake lets assume the average price is 4/5. So for a £10 stake you will collect £8 + your £10 stake each time this occurs. In the case of Blackpool at home last season this happened in 94.7% of games ie 18 of the 19 home games played by Blackpool. So you would have a profit of £144 had you placed the same bet each time Blackpool played at home. For West Brom this was 78.9% of the time (or 15 out of 19 games) again giving a healthy profit on the season. The best returns for the other Leagues for the past season ranked in the 70% arena so nothing near what Blackpool achieved. Indeed looking at the trending we see that it wasn't until April that Blackpool finally returned a game where both teams didn't score, by then the profit would be good and Blackpool could be forgiven for letting you down on the one occasion!

Another bet that was used quite a lot last season by myself and others commentating around me was for over and under 2.5 goals. There was a view that teams such as Crewe would produce games with over 2.5 goals. The reality however was very different, infact in their 46 games Crewes games only produced over 2.5 goals in 26 of the 46 games a return of 56.5%, Crewe did however manage 91 goals and conceded 56 which is on average above 2.5 however its actuals we need not averages.
When betting on over and under last season the team to follow was Peterborough, they managed over 2.5 goals on 22 out of 23 games which is quite a remarkable feat! Again if you assume a guide price of say 4/5 it gives you a profit around the £170 mark, that doubled with Blackpools goal crazy and all of a sudden we are looking at some nice returns from just 2 teams.

In the premiership we saw Manchester United return 18 wins out of 19, albeit Manchester United will have been very short for many of those fixtures so the returns would have been small, however to have a team to add to a treble to bump the returns up is never a bad thing to have in your pocket!

Looking back through the records its hard to find anything coming close to what Blackpool and Peterborough achieved last season so finding the right team to follow will be very hard next season.

As I find more interesting stats i will post there here for you as we move closer to the August 2011 kickoff.

As a foot note I hear that Porto are about to start their search for a new manager as Andre Villas-Boas has resigned and is currently in London talking to Chelsea. Once that move is completed I will do my review of the Premiership as all of the title contenders will by then have their managers in place. If Andre does take over at Stamford Bridge he will become the youngest manager in the Premier League at aged 33! Quite a remarkable move I think!

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