Sunday, 26 June 2011

Early Review Of The Premiership for 2011/2012

Now that the management situation has been sorted out at the top of the Premiership we can look at the chances for the top sides for the coming season. Once again Chelsea disposed of a manager for not winning the Champions League and have employed a relative unknown manager from Portugal (is history repeating itself). Andre Villas-Boas takes over at Stamford Bridge after securing the Portugese Super Cup, The League and the Europa League with Porto last term. Mr Villas-Boas becomes the current youngest manager in the Premier League and has a huge job on his hands. He will not have time to settle in, he will be required to win silverware immediately. This is not unusual for Chelsea managers in recent times, however now Chelsea have to compete with Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City making the job even harder than it once was.
Jose Mourinho managed to win the League in his first season, as did Ancelloti, however the other Chelsea managers have all failed.
Since 1992 Manchester United have won 12 championships and only once failed to win at least back to back championships. As they won the League last season the statistics suggest that they could again produce back to back wins. Last season was not see as the perfect season for Manchester United however they won the League by 9 points and got to the Champions League final - not bad for a poor side!
Arsenal once again flattered to deceive and their season collapsed once they lost the Carling Cup Final. For Arsenal to be challengers again they need to spend some money and spend real money on a number of top class players rather than youngsters that can be developed, ultimately get fed up and move on to win silverware elsewhere.

The top clubs have been relatively quiet in the transfer market so far, its been more about who isn't for sale rather than who is on the move. Spurs have rejected speak of Modric leaving, Arsenal the same with Fabregas and Man city insist Tevez is staying. Time will tell whether these players remain at their respective clubs, after Andre Villas-Boas siad in May he and all of his players would be staying at Porto! For Chelseas sake lets hope his is better at football management than seeing into the future!

Liverpool have been spending money buying Jordan Henderson for £16M from Sunderland. I'm still amazed at how much footballers cost! If Henderson is £16M what doe sthat make Fabregas or Modric if measured directly?

Manchester United have captured the signing of long term target Ashley Young and Phil Jones again both players signing for around the £16M mark. I will be watching with interest whether a new goalkeeper is bought at Old Trafford and if so who it is to replace the retiring van der Sar. The retirement of Scholes should not be too much of an inconvenience as he rarely started games in any case. A bigger loss will be Hargreaves as he never delivered after his transfer from Munich.

I expect the Premiership to become a 2 horse race between the Manchester clubs. They have the playing staff and the money to force their way to the top and City could run United close. I will reflect on this in August once the signings are pretty much done but I take Manchester United to finish just ahead of City as was the case this past season. Currently Manchester United are a 7/4 shot and City 3/1.

To see the review of the Championship, League 1 or League 2 click on the links below
To see the reviews for the leagues click on the links below
League 1
League 2
English Championship


  1. I had wrote a huge comment for this but it somehow was wiped whilst writing. Basically, I think with a central midfielder to be signed, Manchester United are the team to beat, though I do expect Chelsea to be strong and City too.

    City I think can be backed at 6/4 without chelsea and united... I think this is well worth a bet.

  2. Welcome to the blog! City at 6/4 without Man United and Chelsea is exceptional value - which bookmaker is offering this up?

  3. Coral... but now offering just 6/5

    Still think the value is there? Tevez looks set to leave. They will need a goalscorer


  4. 6/5 is getting short but still I only see it being a 2 horse race. Arsenal will compete early season however it will all depend on what happens in the transfer market. I always felt Tevez was on his way anyway but regardless of the fee the owners at Man City will just get out the cheque book and sign another big name striker. The question will be how quickly can that striker adapt to the premiership - assuming he isn't here already as strikers tend to need a season to bed in (Torres the obvious exception to the rule when he went to Liverpool).

    As for Arsenal, I understand that they are preparing a £12M move for Kevin Doyle at Wolves. McCarthy has said previously that someone would need £50M to get him which is slightly over inflating his worth to Wolves or to a prospective bidder.

    I feel something needs to happen to trigger the movement of many players, Fabregas is still training at Arsenal this week so his move isn't a done deal yet, I thought Bendtner might have been on his way by now and Clichy has moved to Man City.

    Man City also have the added target of Champions League success, it will be interesting to see if as at Chelsea the owners want a Champions League bad enough to miss out on League position (but still be in the top 4).

    My view is at this stage given the lack of transfer action, Man City are still stronger than Arsenal and Liverpool and Spurs so therefore 6/5 is still just about reasonable.

    Tevez was a bit of a talisman - i dont have his full stats for last season it looks like 30 goals in 20 games which is pretty good in the premiership. Perhaps Tevez leaving will weaken the 6/5 or at least make it less appealing.

    I dont see too many concrete rumours for new strikers as Man City have so many already, its just they are all on massive money and were not brought in by Mancini. I expect Dzeko to kick on next season and may be the ready replacement for Tvez already - in which case Man City may play with one up with a packed midfield.

    Apparently the decision on Fabregas will be decided today! But i won't hold my breath!!!

  5. Looking at it as 6/5 for say top 3, if we take for granted that Manchester united and chelsea will fill spaces in the top 3, then I think value is still there.

    As City top 4 finish is 1/4 so 6/5 for 'top 3' looks a very good price still, more I think about it the more am tempted for quite a decent sized bet.

    I am hoping to make some good money this year through football bets and will keep reading your blogs. Would be good to see where you are placing your money as the season gets closer.

    Do you tend to win much?

  6. All bets will be advertised on here - usually the Friday before the weekend fixtures. I will also be placing my season long bets closer to the end of July once we have a clearer picture of what teams have bought/sold etc.

    This year my aim is to be more structured with my bets and not place bets just because it makes the Sunday game more fun to watch!

    Now that I have my research data in a more usable form I will hopefully be able to be better with my selections. As for last season I ended up in the positive, in part due to my bet on January 1st when i bet on Man U, QPR, Brighton and Chesterfield in an accumulator to each win their leagues - which they did. At 18/1 that gave me a handy profit.

    Another commentator on this blog broke even on the season, placing £1 yankees each weekend he ended up 12p over the season, so he will also be looking to improve on last season.

    I'm not yet convinced what my stock bet will be this season, last year it was the yankee as well however i might switch to the treble where its appropriate. I have accounts with 3 major bookies so will start the season with 1000 points in each account and then give my selections and how many points I will be waging and on which bookie (assuming time allows for all of this).

    Hopefully between us we can find some value and make some decent profits this year.

    No sign of any interest in Tevez anywhere! Looks like the £200K a week pay packet is an issue - The favoured place is Inter but they wouldn't consider that salary I don't think. Also City have suggested £40M fee which given the Torres deal and Carroll deal is probably about right.

  7. Victor Chandler and Paddy Power are giving 5/4 on City w/o top 2.

    Slightly better, from 1.2 to 1.25