Group A is made up of Brazil, Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon. The expectations of the home support are high and Brazil should not have any problems dealing with the other countries in this Group. If we assume that Brazil will run away with the Group the interest lies in who will finish second.
Using FIFA Rankings (Brazil ranked 3) we see Croatia are ranked 18 and Mexico are ranked 20, Cameroon are not the force they once were when they led the African Nation into the quarter finals back in 1990 with Roger Millar, Cameroon are currently ranked 56. Croatia went up 2 spots in the last FIFA reshuffle with Mexico falling 1 place.
Given this scenario the likelihood is Croatia and Mexico will be competing for the second qualification spot. Croatia are slightly shorter priced that Mexico, with Croatia 11/10 and Mexico 5/4.
Their head to head record shows Croatia winning 2 matches and Mexico winnning 1. Mexicos' win came at the 2002 World Cup.
I take Mexico to get through the Group on the basis that I expect Croatia to lose their opening game against Brazil and Mexico will beat Cameroon. As such when Croatia play Cameroon the pressure will be on Croatia to win the game which may cause an upset.
I expect the Group to finish like this
Brazil
Mexico
Croatia
Cameroon
Monday, 9 June 2014
Brazil 2014 World Cup Thoughts
Its been somewhat of a long time since my last post! But its time to get back into the swing of things.
I thought I would just have a quick look at some interesting stats around the world cup.
Brazil are currently best priced 3/1 favs with most bookmakers and with the World Cup being in Brazil no surprise there!
However you have to go back to 1998 to find a World Cup where the hosts won, that time it was France although they did not go into the tournament as favourites or even start the final as favourites against Brazil so home advantage has its benefits. Home advantage may not work too well for Brazil either as there is unrest in side the country concerning the amount of money that has been spent on the World Cup, as such it will be interesting to see how the fans react as the tournament progresses.
There is clearly a lot of talk about whether the European teams can make an impact in Brazil due to the heat, it's clearly going to be hot in some of the venues but not so hot in others. For example England will play Italy in the heat an humidity of the Amazonian city of Manaus where the temperature can get up to 30 Degrees C. However in Porte Alegre the temperature will be around 19C. France and the Netherlands will be playing here.
As such I fancy France to beat Hondurus (15 June) here and the Netherlands to beat Australia (18 June) as heat will be less of a factor.
England will play Uruguay in the Arena De Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo where the temperature should be a much more reasonable 20C. This shouldn't be too much of a problem for England and I fancy England to win this one. The big danger would have Suarez but given he has had a minor knee operation he is unlikely to be the force he has been in the Premiership this season. We will have to see how he performs against Costa Rica - assuming he even starts.
I like the look of Belgium and expect them to win their group, however should they get out of their group they will face Germany or Portugal! And should they win that the likelihood is that they would then face Argentina, given this potential route through the competition I can't consider them as winners, however the best price of 22/1 is reasonable but unrealistic to come in! I do however expect them to play Argentina but can't see them getting any further.
For me, I like the look of Argentina, they haven't won the World Cup since 1986 and Messi has never really performed on the World Cup stage to a level he would want. Given the conditions and location of this years tournament I think they will be hard to beat and fully expect them to get to the final, where in all probability they will face Brazil. Backing up Messi we have Aguaro and Higuain up front, Mascherano and Champions League Winner Angel Di Maria in midfield and Zabaleta and Demichelis Premier league winners with Man City at the back. Most of the Argentine side are based in Europe and most of the squad play for top European sides as such they are full of experience and should be considered a major threat.
4/1 is available with a lot of bookmakers however I took 9/2 earlier on this month.
History of the opening fixture.
2010 (South Africa)- South Africa 1 - 1 Mexico
2006 (Germany) - Germany 4 - 2 Cost Rica
2002 (South Korea) - France 0 - 1 Senegal
1998 (France) - Brazil 2 - 1 Scotland
1994 (USA) - Germany 1 - 0 Bolivia
1990 (Italy) - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon
The opening fixture this time around is Brazil V Croatia, the bookies give Croatia no chance at 10/1. With Brazil at 3/10 there isn't much value. We haven't seen over 2.5 goals in the opening game that often, however I thing Brazil will be keen to come out of the traps flying. If they score early I can see them scoring at least 3. Over 2.5 goals is available at Evens.
If you fancy Brazil to win rather than the 3/10 for winning the game you can get 3/4 on Brazil winning at half time and then at full time. This gives slightly better value.
If you need a new account for the world cup click here
I thought I would just have a quick look at some interesting stats around the world cup.
Brazil are currently best priced 3/1 favs with most bookmakers and with the World Cup being in Brazil no surprise there!
However you have to go back to 1998 to find a World Cup where the hosts won, that time it was France although they did not go into the tournament as favourites or even start the final as favourites against Brazil so home advantage has its benefits. Home advantage may not work too well for Brazil either as there is unrest in side the country concerning the amount of money that has been spent on the World Cup, as such it will be interesting to see how the fans react as the tournament progresses.
There is clearly a lot of talk about whether the European teams can make an impact in Brazil due to the heat, it's clearly going to be hot in some of the venues but not so hot in others. For example England will play Italy in the heat an humidity of the Amazonian city of Manaus where the temperature can get up to 30 Degrees C. However in Porte Alegre the temperature will be around 19C. France and the Netherlands will be playing here.
As such I fancy France to beat Hondurus (15 June) here and the Netherlands to beat Australia (18 June) as heat will be less of a factor.
England will play Uruguay in the Arena De Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo where the temperature should be a much more reasonable 20C. This shouldn't be too much of a problem for England and I fancy England to win this one. The big danger would have Suarez but given he has had a minor knee operation he is unlikely to be the force he has been in the Premiership this season. We will have to see how he performs against Costa Rica - assuming he even starts.
I like the look of Belgium and expect them to win their group, however should they get out of their group they will face Germany or Portugal! And should they win that the likelihood is that they would then face Argentina, given this potential route through the competition I can't consider them as winners, however the best price of 22/1 is reasonable but unrealistic to come in! I do however expect them to play Argentina but can't see them getting any further.
For me, I like the look of Argentina, they haven't won the World Cup since 1986 and Messi has never really performed on the World Cup stage to a level he would want. Given the conditions and location of this years tournament I think they will be hard to beat and fully expect them to get to the final, where in all probability they will face Brazil. Backing up Messi we have Aguaro and Higuain up front, Mascherano and Champions League Winner Angel Di Maria in midfield and Zabaleta and Demichelis Premier league winners with Man City at the back. Most of the Argentine side are based in Europe and most of the squad play for top European sides as such they are full of experience and should be considered a major threat.
4/1 is available with a lot of bookmakers however I took 9/2 earlier on this month.
History of the opening fixture.
2010 (South Africa)- South Africa 1 - 1 Mexico
2006 (Germany) - Germany 4 - 2 Cost Rica
2002 (South Korea) - France 0 - 1 Senegal
1998 (France) - Brazil 2 - 1 Scotland
1994 (USA) - Germany 1 - 0 Bolivia
1990 (Italy) - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon
The opening fixture this time around is Brazil V Croatia, the bookies give Croatia no chance at 10/1. With Brazil at 3/10 there isn't much value. We haven't seen over 2.5 goals in the opening game that often, however I thing Brazil will be keen to come out of the traps flying. If they score early I can see them scoring at least 3. Over 2.5 goals is available at Evens.
If you fancy Brazil to win rather than the 3/10 for winning the game you can get 3/4 on Brazil winning at half time and then at full time. This gives slightly better value.
If you need a new account for the world cup click here
Sunday, 9 October 2011
League 2 Review October 2011
We have now entered October so its a good time to review the season so far and look for possible league winners. Today I will be looking at League 2 where we have seen the demise of Plymouth Argyle, a heavy defeat for Crawley and the emergence of Morecambe.
At present the teams in League 2 have played 12 games, last season after 14 games Chesterfield were top and went on to win the League. Currently Southend head the field with 25 points, should they win their next 2 games they will be ahead of where Chesterfield were last season.
Its interesting to see pre season favourites Crawley Town in second place, they have had a mixed start with some good wins but also a heavy defeat at early pace setters Morecambe. Crawley have conceded 17 goals so far, which is in my view slightly high for a team priced at 11/8 to win the league! Southend have only conceded 12 goals thus far showing they are nice and tight at the back!
When looking at the past 10 seasons we can see that the winner has come from the top 6 by this stage of the season, so this means that the winner should come from one of the following teams.
Southend, Crawley, AFC Wimbledon, Shrewsbury, Oxford and Morecambe. Shrewsbury are second favourites at the moment at 7/1 with Southend at 9/1 and Oxford 10/1. AFC Wimbledon and Morecambe are seen as the outsiders of the group at 18/1 and 22/1 respectively.
At the start of the season I was looking at Southend as my team for the season and nothing has changed to affect this thought. Crawley at 11/8 are way too short and have not shown the dominance that you would expect from a team as short as that price at this stage. I have no doubts that Crawley will be promoted but not necessarily as champions.
Paul Sturrock at Southend has been here before with Plymouth, so he has the pedigree and the experience to complete the double with Southend.
I will take the 9/1 this week as I look to set up some winning bets for the end of the season.
Friday, 23 September 2011
Weekend of 24/25 September 2011
Following the Carling Cup fixtures in midweek we return to the bread and butter of the League. At the time of writing Leeds are 2-0 up on Brighton showing how hard it is to play on a Wednesday and then again on a Friday 0 all in the name of tv money! To be fair to Brighton they have done extremely well and the tv money from the cup game apparently pays for one of their players wages for a whole season! So to give up 3 points may be worth it in the long run!
Last weekend we saw Stoke, Fulham, Man City, Birmingham all struggle after European games so I will follow that theme by going for Crawley to win at Aldershot. Aldershot played Rochdale on Tuesday night winning 2-1 and progressing to the 4th round for the first time in a long time. Crawley have had a bad few weeks but returned to form at the weekend winning 3-1 at home to Bradford after going a goal behind. At 11/8 Crawley are good value to win against a side that could be more interested in the 4th round draw of the Carling Cup rather than 3 points at home!
Down at Home Park Plymouth have sacked Peter Reid after 7 defeats in a row. Given the financial strife its comes as a shame/blessing for Reid, they have put senior pro Fletcher in charge whilst the sale of the club is finalised. This could be a situation of a team getting up for the new manager against a side that has only won once away all season and that was at Hereford 4-0. Hereford lost 6-1 at home last week to Gillingham, which puts the Macclesfield game in perspectice. Macclefield have failed to score in any of their previous away games so I'm going out on a limb to pick Plymouth at 2/1.
Burnley have yet to win at home this season, tomorrow they will entertain Southampton, the current pace setters in the Championship. Southampton are another side that figured in midweek so will have those extra miles in the legs, they managed to beat Preston 2-1. I fancy Burnley to get a rare home win tomorrow again based on the fact that they didn't play in midweek, 19/10 is the price for the home win.
Finally I will be including Ipswich in my bet, playing away at Middleborough. Ipswich did well to beat Coventry last Monday night and will be up for the trip to the North. Middlesborough lost to Crystal Palace in midweek after beating them last weekend at the same ground. I feel Ipswich will be the fresher side and at 4.1 are great value.
Good luck with your weekend betting!
Monday, 19 September 2011
Weekly Accumulator
This midweek I'm going for a mixture of league and cup games.
On Monday night I like the look of Ipswich at home to Coventry. At 21/20 Ipswich are hugely overpriced given Coventrys bad start to the season.
On Tuesday I like the look of Rochdale away at Aldershot. 8/5 for a higher league side to beat a league 2 side is again great value, Rochdale seem to get up for big games and should proceed to the next round of the cup this week.
Aston Villa need a good cup run as their manager searches for some confidence in the side and a need to win over the fans. They are unbeaten this season after drawing at home to Newcastle and should be able to overcome a poor Bolton side who have struggled this term albeit they have had some tough fixtures includeing Man U , Man c and Liverpool. Although losing at home to Norwich cannot be a good thing and a resting of key players on Tuesday night could be in order.
Finally I'm going for Millwall away at Wolves. By their own admission Wolves never got started on Saturday and were thumped 3-0 at home by QPR. To be fair QPR played well when drawing with Newcastle on Monday last week and should really have won that game as well. Wolves started well but have stuttered over the last 2 weeks but I'm sure they have enough in their locker this season to once agaiin survive. Survival is key for Wolves and again I expect McCarthy to rest some of his key players for some fringe players whereas Millwall could play a decent lineup as they push for another cup final. At 10/3 Millwall are great value after their 0-0 draw with local rivals West Ham on Saturday.
The bet will pay £412 if the results go my way, but to cover myself I am confident of Ipswich so will place a bet on Ipswich to cover my outlay here so if the accumulator doesnt come in the Ipswich result should make sure im slightly better than break even.
Sunday, 18 September 2011
A bit of a catch up
Now that i'm back from holiday I will hopefully get back on top with my posts. I managed 3 results our of 4 yesterday and picked up 4 out of 4 today.
Yesterday I picked up Bournemouth away at Exeter, Bournemouth had a good away win last week and were too big at 2/1 away this weekend. A 2-0 win proved the point and i doubt we will see Bournemouth at that sort of price again for a while to lower league sides. Secondly I went for a short price home team in Southend. They were entertaining a dreadful Plynouth side that is in all sorts of bother again this season, Peter Reid has also just been sacked. This is probably a relief for Peter and I am sure he will succeed elsewhere, maybe back at Stoke working with Pulis?
My third selection was Preston away at Brentford. Preston have picked up form lately and at 15/8 were deemed reasonable value and a good win saw the bet home. Finally I had Hereford to draw at home with Gillingham. It was a game where Hereford on form hadnt done much wrong this season and Gillingham done "ok". However the 1-6 scoreline dented the bet and indded gave Gillingham their biggest away win ever!
In the premiership all of the promoted sides won on the same weekend for the first time since 2007. This was all the more interesting as only one of the teams were at home and only 1 goal was conceded by the 3 sides. I'm not sure whether this means these teams will be any more successful in avoiding the drop however after watching QPR V Newcastle on Monday night it came as no surprise as they should have won that game easily as well. I think the addition of Joey Barton and Shaun Wright Phillips is huge for QPR and should ensure that they stay up this season.
Today I invested some of my winnings on a Yankee, Spurs to win, Sunderland to win, Fulham to draw and Man U to win. My first 4/4 of the season so its been a good day!
The reason for the bet was based on Spurs resting the entire squad for the European fixture in midweek. They have had a difficult start with defeats against the Manchester clubs but showed resolved against Wolves last week. They played well today and deserved the 4-0 result. Sunderland have also had a tricky start however it was the fact that Stoke travelled to Kiev in midweek that prompted my selection. Most of the Stoke played have probably never had that sort of travel pattern before and history shows sides playing in Europe struggle on return to the league. Fulham have done ok and look like being draw specialists again, playing a Man City side that struggled in Europe suggested that Fulham might not have enough to win but should be able to get a draw which indeed they did, coming from 0-2 down to draw 2-2.
Finally Man U are the stand out side in the league so selecting them to beat Chelsea was straightforward. The Bet paid around 16/1 which made a nice addition to yesterdays 3/4.
This week we have Carling Cup action when I expect some more Premier League Teams to fall. I will review the situation and put up my selections on Monday evening.
Friday, 2 September 2011
Weekly Review
It maybe an International weekend and I may still be on holiday but the lower leagues play on all the same so its only right that I complete a review of some of the games.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.
As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.
With games of this type I like to go with the home side.
Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.
Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.
Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.
Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.
In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.
This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.
This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?
In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.
Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.
At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.
Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.
In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.
In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!
In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.
Chesterfield host Leyton Orient, this is the "battle for the bottom" of League 1. A big change from last season when at this stage both sides were going well and of course Chesterfield ended up winning the league and being promoted. This season neither side has managed a win, Orient haven't even troubled the oppositions net in their away games. Orient also haven't played any of the fancied sides for promotion so could well be looking at a long season ahead. Its a big come down following their close call with the play offs last season. There was no last minute inward transfers on Wednesday meaning the same set of players that lost 5-0 at Brentford need to get their heads sorted out and start picking up points. It must be pointed out that Orient have lost to 4 of the current top 10 sides.
As for Chesterfield, they have also struggled badly this season, picking up a single point against fellow promoted side Stevenage at home. Since then they have lost at home to Preston and lost 3 away games most notably against MK Dons 6-2.
Chesterfield picked up a loan signing and a new striker during the end of the transfer window and will hope that these players bed in quickly and start putting some wins together.
With games of this type I like to go with the home side.
Another side struggling this season after a great season last year are Bournemouth. 5th this time last year after promotion they find themselves fourth from bottom this time around. It could be the case that Bournemouth will struggle after the events of last season rather than feature at the top end again, as is sometimes the case for teams in their second season in a particular league.
Bournemouth play Notts County, County narrowly avoided relegation last season sit in relative safety in mid table with 6 points. Notts have lost 3 games all to sides that were among the favourites for promotion and also now sit in the top 10 however 2 wins against sides sitting in the top 7 shows that the side can play and beat reasonable opposition.
Bournemouth however despite beating Sheffield Weds they have performed poorly against Stevenage and Walsall at home and have lost away to Charlton and Carlisle. Charlton have started well so that defeat can be forgiven but losing to sides not expected to challenge is a worrying sign for the south cost side.
Given Notts Countys bright start and interesting wins I would be looking at County to pick up another 3 points at the weekend.
In League 2 Rotherham travel to Swindon. Before the start of the season Swindon were amongst the favorites for promotion however they have stuttered since winning their opening game. Indeed they have now lost 4 of their 5 games and languish at the wrong end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Di Canio reacts to this situation in his first managerial role. Rotherham however have had a blistering start picking up 13 out of 15 points from their opening 5 games. Rotherhmas 2 away games were at Crewe and Plymouth, 2 of the bottom 3 sides with home wins against Oxford and Gillingham and probably a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Barnet.
This time last year after 4 games Rotherham were sitting 3rd but eventually faded away from the championship picture.
This game could end in a draw, however 7/4 for the league leaders to win is a great price and maybe worth a gamble?
In my final review for this week concerns Southend and Northampton. Southend have started the season in reasonable form, beating Hereford and losing to Burton at home and only losing to Crawley away, with wins at Accrington and Port Vale.
Northampton have struggled this season, drawing 0-0 with Accrington but losing to Cheltenham and Morecambe. Away they have beaten Aldershot but lost at Bristol Rovers. It must be noted that Aldershot have also lost their other home game 0-1 to Torquay.
At Evens I would take Southend to get 3 more points on the board and push further up the league.
Now that we are at the end of August I can take my first look at some trends for league winners.
In League 2 I have bad news for Rotherham! The team winning the league inthe past 10 seasons has never lead after August. Hartlepool, Walsall and Scunthorpe all came close by finishing second but 1st place has never been achieved.
In league 1 Leicester did manage the feat in Season 08/09, Luton did the same in 04/05, this bodes well for MK Dons! I do expect the winner of League 1 to come from one of the current top 4 but I don't expect it to be MK Dons, Charlton, Preston and Sheffield United are all knocking on the door!
In the championship QPR lead on September 1st and won the league last season, Newcastle did the same the season before, Wolves also achieved the feat in 08/09, Portsmouth also managed the feat in 02/03. Brighton are currently top dogs and are available at 15/2 for the league, an interesting price indeed! For me I still feel West Ham at 2/1 are the team to beat.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)