Today I have decided to look at a "special" bet being offered by Bet365, this is off the back of our regular contributor tyates86 who provided us with the "bet without Man U and Chelsea"! Here the suggested bet is Man City at 5/4 which does look incredible value.
So what else could we look at to find some value?
We have the "who will score the most goals" market - this is offered by Bet365 click on the link to create an account.
Looking at the previous seasons I'm simply looking at which team scores the most goals, since 2001/02 (with the exception of 2001/02) the teams finishing first or second have always been the highest goals scorers. In 2001/02 the highest scorers were Man U who finished 3rd, albeit only 3 points behind second.
Since then Man U have finished up as top scorers on 4 occasions, Chelsea once (the season the won the league and scored 103 goals - the highest number of goals). So maybe rather than betting on a team to win the league you should consider backing that team to score the most goals as there is a link! Also if your team finished second they could still be leading scorers!
The prices available for the top scorers are
Man City 4/1
Liverpool 13/2
Man U 7/1
Chelsea 9/1
Arsenal 10/1
As you see these prices are much better than betting to win the league! Indeed I find these odds somewhat surprising when you look at the betting for the leading goalscorer. Man U have 2 of the top 3 favorites and Chelsea have the other, these 2 are still the favorites for the league also. So Man U and Chelsea in this market look like fantastic value!
Some interesting thoughts here and I think that you have found some good value, I think looking at alternative bets can really for value.
ReplyDeleteI have opened my account at william hill and have placed a few bets 'in play'. An example of how looking at alternative bets for value is the following, 1-1 in a football game with 20 minutes to go, the 1-1 score and the game draw (7/10) where both odds on. Yet the under 2.5 goals was 21/20. I placed on the value, and okay the game finished 2-1 with a winner in the 91st minute. But I think it still highlights that just looking a little deeper you can really find some value in your betting. There is a big difference between 21/20 and 7/10 for effectively the same bet.
I would tend to agree. Although I don't have any stats that show us position of game at 70 mins to see how often a game at 1-1 would end 2-2 or above on a draw. I would agree the bet under 2.5 is the better bet than the draw as another goal will probably result in a winner rather than a scoring draw. I have my first football bet of the season on tonight. 8/15 on stoke to win at home. Here I have doubled my normal bet as I feel the price is short but its a game i cannot see Split getting anything from. Hopefully this is a game to increase the bankroll rather than complete the retirement fund!
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